Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby WhiteyFan » Tue Nov 25, 2014 14:09:07

nycphils wrote:Agreed. He'd fill a role in the OF this year and maybe he'd sign a reasonable deal if the market doesn't develop if he sticks around, or he can be flipped for something at the deadline. I'd easily take him on to get 2 of the 3 of Betts, Bogarts and Owens.


So, Hamels for Cespedes, Betts and Bogaerts? Sounds reasonable. Go float that on a Sox message board and gauge the reaction.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby heyeaglefn » Tue Nov 25, 2014 14:10:24

WhiteyFan wrote:
nycphils wrote:Agreed. He'd fill a role in the OF this year and maybe he'd sign a reasonable deal if the market doesn't develop if he sticks around, or he can be flipped for something at the deadline. I'd easily take him on to get 2 of the 3 of Betts, Bogarts and Owens.


So, Hamels for Cespedes, Betts and Bogaerts? Sounds reasonable. Go float that on a Sox message board and gauge the reaction.

Why would they do that when the could dump Cespedes, keep Betts and Bogaerts and just overpay for Lester?

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby my cousin mose » Tue Nov 25, 2014 14:18:15

Clearly what will happen is we'll have to wait for Lester and Scherzer to sign to determine Hamels' trade value, and then decide to hold on to him to give it one last go before breaking up this team's core
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby WilliamC » Tue Nov 25, 2014 14:23:48

Scherzer's deal is going to make Cole's look sweet. Same age, Cole is better.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Werthless » Tue Nov 25, 2014 14:31:55

WilliamC wrote:Scherzer's deal is going to make Cole's look sweet. Same age, Cole is better.

No one outside of Philly thinks Hamels is better than Scherzer. But given the expected cost of Scherzer's contract, we'll still be in a strong position.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Werthless » Tue Nov 25, 2014 14:35:19

Grotewold wrote:Still don't see why Boston wouldn't just kick an extra $10M or so to Lester

If Lester is willing to sign for 5/$120, then the Phillies should consider bidding on him.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby BigEd76 » Tue Nov 25, 2014 14:42:29

Stark

"If he can find a deal where he gets two pitchers who can pitch in the top three of his rotation at some point, or he gets one guy like that plus another guy who is going to play every day in the big leagues on a [winning] team, then he's got to do it," said one NL exec of Amaro. "Or if he gets a little less than that, but he can get another piece who can help in the near future, then he's got to do it."

But then the same exec paused for a moment and came to his senses.

"It's the wrong year to be doing it because there's so much pitching out there."


Jon Lester ... Max Scherzer ... James Shields ... Francisco Liriano ... Brandon McCarthy ... Ervin Santana ... Hiroki Kuroda. Those would be just some of the starting pitchers any team can find on the shelves of the old free-agent supermarket right now.

Jordan Zimmermann ... Doug Fister ... Jeff Samardzija ... Mat Latos ... Rick Porcello ... maybe even Johnny Cueto. Those would be some of the starting pitcher alternatives out there if you're a team like the Red Sox which wouldn't mind trading some of its excess position players for a veteran starter.

So given how many other options are out there, "it's going to be very difficult," said one exec, "for Ruben to do this the way he's going to need to do it."

And what way is that, you ask? Another industry source who has talked with Amaro laughed at that question.

"Ruben is in a spot where he's not going to play his hand unless it looks like the deal of the century."

And that, say multiple teams, is pretty much the type of deal Amaro has been asking for consistently, from last July to now -- a return so glittering that nobody can question it.

What he wants, said one exec, is "your two best [young] guys, plus 'you take all the money.' " And he's taken that hard line, other clubs believe, as much because of the heat he's feeling personally, with a year left on his contract, as it is because of the position his team finds itself in.

"You look at the players he got back in some of these other deals and basically, he got nothing," said an official of one club, bluntly. "Really, their window to make these moves was two years ago. Two years ago, they had a chance to make three, four, five moves and break up their core when there was still big value there."


"I think Ruben is in a position," said another NL executive, "where he'll reach as high as he wants to reach this winter. He doesn't have to move him, but he's prepared to move him if the right deal comes along. But it's got to be almost the perfect deal, or he'll wait until July."

So are the Red Sox prepared to make "the perfect deal" this winter, now that they've stockpiled the depth of trade chips that could make it happen? Is someone else? We're about to find out. But don't bet on it. Eventually, other teams say, Amaro is going to have to accept reality and make a practical deal, not the perfect deal, whether he wants to or not.

"He's never going to make a deal where Phillies fans say, 'Hey, that's great, Ruben,'" said an exec of one team. "He needs to realize that ain't happening."

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby WilliamC » Tue Nov 25, 2014 14:48:04

Again, back to that bull$hit. Amaro/or the Phils never make a trade where a "rival exec" isn't in some form or other saying things that sound like they want the price to go down or are purposefully driving it down by using the media. It's annoying.

It's paranoia I'm sure to an extent, but shit. I follow things pretty close and I hear nothing ever quite like it on other elite trade prospects.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby CFP » Tue Nov 25, 2014 14:51:16

"This is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball," Amaro said. "He's at a level with the [Clayton] Kershaws and [Jon] Lesters and [David] Prices. And some of the metrics say he's even better in some respects. So like I've said, he's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and we don't have to trade him. And if we do decide to move him, it will be for something we think is appropriate."


Amaro quoting "metrics". Wow.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Tue Nov 25, 2014 14:55:22

WilliamC wrote:Again, back to that bull$hit. Amaro/or the Phils never make a trade where a "rival exec" isn't in some form or other saying things that sound like they want the price to go down or are purposefully driving it down by using the media.


And unlike literally every other reporter, Stark always gets a bunch of them to speak really bluntly and engagingly

Almost makes you wonder how with all these close relationships he never actually breaks news

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby BigEd76 » Tue Nov 25, 2014 14:58:49

Too busy doing book signings in Philly and Newtown

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Werthless » Tue Nov 25, 2014 15:00:32

WhiteyFan wrote:
nycphils wrote:Agreed. He'd fill a role in the OF this year and maybe he'd sign a reasonable deal if the market doesn't develop if he sticks around, or he can be flipped for something at the deadline. I'd easily take him on to get 2 of the 3 of Betts, Bogarts and Owens.


So, Hamels for Cespedes, Betts and Bogaerts? Sounds reasonable. Go float that on a Sox message board and gauge the reaction.

Let's throw in $40MM and try to make it happen. :)

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Tue Nov 25, 2014 15:03:59

CFP wrote:
"This is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball," Amaro said. "He's at a level with the [Clayton] Kershaws and [Jon] Lesters and [David] Prices. And some of the metrics say he's even better in some respects. So like I've said, he's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and we don't have to trade him. And if we do decide to move him, it will be for something we think is appropriate."


Amaro quoting "metrics". Wow.

Cole has way more RBIs than Lester and Price.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Tue Nov 25, 2014 15:04:34

BigEd76 wrote:Too busy doing book signings in Philly and Newtown


A trivial pursuit, am i right

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby lethal » Tue Nov 25, 2014 15:10:14

CFP wrote:
"This is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball," Amaro said. "He's at a level with the [Clayton] Kershaws and [Jon] Lesters and [David] Prices. And some of the metrics say he's even better in some respects. So like I've said, he's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and we don't have to trade him. And if we do decide to move him, it will be for something we think is appropriate."


Amaro quoting "metrics". Wow.


The Phillies not talking down the trade value of their own players. That's a change too.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby CFP » Tue Nov 25, 2014 15:10:52

I am getting quite tired of the Stark style of reporting, though. He makes these articles unnecessarily long with these rival exec quotes.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Bill McNeal » Tue Nov 25, 2014 15:13:29

Honestly, unless rube gets one of those "glittering" deals then in fine with not trading cole. No point in moving him for a bunch of never gonna be's just to do it. As a fan I still wan a watch him pitch every fifth day and if they somehow catch lighting in a bottle and make a "wheeze kids" run, I'd rather have him at the top of the rotation than a couple of middling prospects. We've got enough of those guys already.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Werthless » Tue Nov 25, 2014 15:14:05

Makes him look foolish to compare Hamels to Kershaw though.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby WilliamC » Tue Nov 25, 2014 15:14:21

I can't believe he is 63. Grote you are right, He has more unnamed sources than about anyone. He definitely dyes his hair.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby dajafi » Tue Nov 25, 2014 15:22:35

Bill McNeal wrote:Honestly, unless rube gets one of those "glittering" deals then in fine with not trading cole. No point in moving him for a bunch of never gonna be's just to do it. As a fan I still wan a watch him pitch every fifth day and if they somehow catch lighting in a bottle and make a "wheeze kids" run, I'd rather have him at the top of the rotation than a couple of middling prospects. We've got enough of those guys already.


I'm sympathetic to this, but it reminds me about the outcome that terrified me last season: the Phils go 45-36 in the first half and are two games out of first, even though they've got a negative run differential suggesting they should be something like 39-42, and Amaro empties the farm for a rental or Pence-type rental-plus (which means higher cost). The rest of the team regresses, even if the addition keeps producing; they finish with around 76 wins, and they're in worse shape for the out years.

I don't see that as anything like probable, and even if it happened I guess they could turn around and tear down again the following winter, but I also don't trust them to make the rational long-term decision at the deadline. (Though I'm starting to mistrust them a little less, if that makes sense.)

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