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Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby nycphils » Tue Nov 25, 2014 02:03:55

ReadingPhilly wrote:Cespedes can't receive a qualifying offer.


Interesting. By contract, or by rule?

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Nov 25, 2014 02:22:23

I think it was something with his contract that he signed with Oakland. He can't get one from Boston either (which might make him equally less valuable from their end and your trade still to work).

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Stripes » Tue Nov 25, 2014 09:18:02

nycphils wrote:I think the deal will be Bogaerts, Cespedes and Owens - would definitely do that. Cespedes can be given a QO after the season to get a pick.

Sign Yasmani and put Brown in RF, cut Howard and deal Byrd. Would definitely try to get Rollins to go to the As and Utley to the Dodgers with Galvis and Hernandez getting their shots,


Who's playing CF, Cespedes or Tomas?
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby stevemc » Tue Nov 25, 2014 09:31:54

Stripes wrote:
nycphils wrote:I think the deal will be Bogaerts, Cespedes and Owens - would definitely do that. Cespedes can be given a QO after the season to get a pick.

Sign Yasmani and put Brown in RF, cut Howard and deal Byrd. Would definitely try to get Rollins to go to the As and Utley to the Dodgers with Galvis and Hernandez getting their shots,


Who's playing CF, Cespedes or Tomas?


Image

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Tue Nov 25, 2014 09:33:13

Is that photo actual size

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby nycphils » Tue Nov 25, 2014 09:36:52

Stripes wrote:
nycphils wrote:I think the deal will be Bogaerts, Cespedes and Owens - would definitely do that. Cespedes can be given a QO after the season to get a pick.

Sign Yasmani and put Brown in RF, cut Howard and deal Byrd. Would definitely try to get Rollins to go to the As and Utley to the Dodgers with Galvis and Hernandez getting their shots,


Who's playing CF, Cespedes or Tomas?


Cespedes, in this world of fantasy. Would be a brutal defensive outfield, but it already is.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Tue Nov 25, 2014 09:41:51

Say no to seis pay days

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Wheels Tupay » Tue Nov 25, 2014 09:45:05

Guys, what is the point of trading for Cespedes?
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Monkeyboy » Tue Nov 25, 2014 09:51:37

He and Tomas would make an unstoppable tandem of guys who can hit the ball really far but have trouble commanding the strike zone. We would be ground zero for all future Cuban rumors.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Monkeyboy » Tue Nov 25, 2014 09:53:15

But really, he would be a decent 2nd guy in a trade for a top prospect because you could probably flip him for a decent prospect at the deadline. He'd also probably sell some tix. That's about all I got
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby phorever » Tue Nov 25, 2014 09:58:44

geez-louise... the moves by boston this week make it seem impossible to screw up a hamels trade... if the phils management/amaro screw this up i'll be fully on board with the everything is ruined forever phillies worldview.

gotta make sure there are multiple players coming back each with good chances to be big pluses in time for the 2017-2018 season. normal age/injury pegs hamels as having a median expectancy of 2 wins above average (4 war) in 2017 and 1.5 in 2018. that implies around 70% odds of being above average over those two season you need STRONG return to beat those odds, even with if you have more $$$ to spend on free agents to fill any value gap. one big-time but still unproven prospect as the only major piece coming back would not be enough. adding in a former hotshot who might be going bust may still not be enough. i would want another stud prospect added to such a package.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:02:04

Still don't see why Boston wouldn't just kick an extra $10M or so to Lester

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby JFLNYC » Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:04:20

I'm guessing that's their preference with Hamels as a fallback.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby phorever » Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:14:36

Wheels Tupay wrote:Guys, what is the point of trading for Cespedes?


package in a second offseason trade to improve the prospect haul or as potentially valuable tradebait at the deadline.
or... not having to endure brown's defense in the outfield.
or... chicks (and many other potential paying customers) dig the long ball.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:18:28

phorever wrote:
Wheels Tupay wrote:Guys, what is the point of trading for Cespedes?


package in a second offseason trade


If Boston just needs to clear salary, I guess, but otherwise I would assume their prospects are better/deeper than most other teams', so why bother

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby heyeaglefn » Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:25:17

phorever wrote:
Wheels Tupay wrote:Guys, what is the point of trading for Cespedes?


package in a second offseason trade to improve the prospect haul or as potentially valuable tradebait at the deadline.
or... not having to endure brown's defense in the outfield.
or... chicks (and many other potential paying customers) dig the long ball.

I don't think Amaro is capable of option 1.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby CFP » Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:36:39

Phils to sign Chris Nelson to minor-league deal

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby rolex » Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:38:14

Cherington has done a good job of re-doing the Red Sox into potential WS contenders. Notice that he did it in incremental steps- (1) trade off Lester; (2) Trade Lackey for a decent return of MLB players; (3) Sign a Cuban FA; (4) sign two top level MLB free agents. Maybe this will all blow up on him but on paper Cherington has a team that can challenge now because he has mostly tested major leaguers and stayed away from obtaining prospects/suspects.
There is no reason why the Phillies can't move some of their pieces in the same manner and get a similar return. Hamels, Rollins, Byrd etc. Hamels is in hot demand. There is no reason to accept risky prospects in return for him. LAD need a caretaker SS until Saeger is ready- JRoll anyone? I wouldn't underestimate the ability of a good GM to work this so that in 2016 the Phillies are back in serious contention. The with a cleared out payroll sign a top level FA pitcher to replace the traded Hamels.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:40:51

For all the talk of his hometown I could see LA appealing to Rollins lifestyle and record biz wise

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby WheelsFellOff » Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:48:51

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