Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby lethal » Wed Dec 17, 2014 17:27:04

I'm sure 1 year of Trout is worth quite a lot, but I don't know about 80M. If you signed one player and that guaranteed that you'd win the World Series that year, what's the increase in revenue? If you increase attendance by 10K per game, that's 800K a year, at $50 per person, that's $40M.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Werthless » Wed Dec 17, 2014 17:29:49

At least 1! Dodgers, Tigers, NY, Chi... these are all markets that can support a 1 year jump in payrool. From a luxury tax perspective, it's probably better for these teams to overload on 1 year.

It transfers some of the risk onto the player, since it only guarantees 1 year. So the cost needs to be higher. But I think an owner has an easier time signing off an elite talent for 1 year than sub-elite talents for 4+ years.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Werthless » Wed Dec 17, 2014 17:32:05

lethal wrote:I'm sure 1 year of Trout is worth quite a lot, but I don't know about 80M. If you signed one player and that guaranteed that you'd win the World Series that year, what's the increase in revenue? If you increase attendance by 10K per game, that's 800K a year, at $50 per person, that's $40M.

It sounds like you're saying that half of the salary is free.

No other contracts are held to that standard where the cost of the contract needs to be paid for by incremental revenue at the gate. I'm guessing the Yankees would jump at this arrangement in a New York minute.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Shore » Wed Dec 17, 2014 17:33:09

Werthless wrote:Sidebar, only tangentially related to Hamels:

I am convinced that mediocrity is overvalued by the sabermetrically inclined baseball establishment. A 4 WAR player is worth more than 2x as much as a 2 WAR player, and 2 WAR player is worth more than 2x a 1 WAR player.

If a 10 WAR player like Mike Trout became available as a free agent, today, he would be worth 80MM on a 1 year deal. If any of these superstars would stop selling themselves short and take shorter deals, they might be surprised what kind of deals they could get on a year-to-year basis. How risk averse should you be if you've already made $50MM?

Look at what the White Sox are throwing money at.... They just spent all that money for less than 10WAR. I can't imagine what Detroit would spend on Trout on a 1 year deal.


Agreed, 100%. It's this kind of thinking that makes certain folks defend 4yr/$50M contracts to turds, because they're likely to be worth 1.5 WAR/year.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby ReadingPhilly » Wed Dec 17, 2014 18:37:38

BigEd76 wrote:
Grotewold wrote:Chase Utley will appear on the Ellen show at 3

Thanks Amaro


Bill McNeal wrote:Breathlessly waiting for Ed's recap.


http://ellentube.com/videos/0-ay5qfykf/

He invited her to as many games as she wants next season. [insert inappropriate joke here]


hard to fathom how dumb some people are.

A great gesture by Utley and the Phillies, right?

WPHT 1210 AM's morning host Chris Stigall didn't think so.

Tuesday, Stigall talked on his show about Monday's appearance by Utley and noted that the second baseman may not even be with the Phillies at the start of the 2015 season.


"You know Chase Utley's probably not even going to be around to take the cancer patient to the games," said Stigall. "It's a nice invite, but he won't even be there."

OK, maybe Stigall is just trying to be a realist, but I'm sure even if Utley is traded during the offseason, the Phillies would still stand good on the invite to all the games.

Stigall didn't stop there, though. His next comments crossed the line of human decency.

"Plus, it's probably terminal what that woman has. You think she's going to live through an entire season?"

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Werthless » Wed Dec 17, 2014 19:00:26

That's an impressive degree of callousness.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby 21McBride » Wed Dec 17, 2014 21:09:28

Human garbage
"Chase Utley You are the Man"

-Harry Kalas

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby pacino » Wed Dec 17, 2014 21:12:16

Sometimes people don't need to have an opinion on everything. That guy is hot garbage.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby BigEd76 » Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:40:21

Crasnick says the Rockies are interested in Kendrick as their #4/#5 starter

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