MattS wrote:When we analyze a trade like this, we usually look at expected value for each player, but in reality, that is not the way to go when looking at minor league prospects in a trade. With Lidge and Bruntlett, I think it is pretty clear what we are trading for. Geary is pretty much what he is, so he is somewhat of a known quantity as well. The question really comes down to how good Bourn and Costanzo will be.
People have a tendency to look at them and say "I don't expect Costanzo to be a major league player", and simply because he has less than a 50% chance of contributing at the major league level, they conclude he is worthless. In reality, there is some potential with Costanzo, and we don't need to take into account what he is on average-- we need to take into account what RANGE of possibilities there are if he makes the majors, and what chance each of those possibilities are.
I like the concept of trading Bourn because I see him to be a known quantity. Ultimately, he is a solid defender, a groundball hitter, with a bit of an eye, and no power. The only area where he may develop a little is power. But he is pretty much a guarantee not to turn into a slugger. It's actually pretty clear what he is, and he is pretty much as close to trading a known quantity as possible. He is a .280/.340/.380 kind of hitter, and the only slash stat that I expect may change is his slugging percentage a little in either direction. That is different than when usually trading a minor leaguer. Five years of that starting is maybe 5 wins above replacement combined.
Costanzo is a bit more of the x-factor in this trade. Naturally, we are inclined to think he is probably not a major leaguer and write this off as trading a AAAA guy. But with a power hitter like him, there is a chance that he could suddenly turn the corner and be a major middle of the lineup force. He could turn out to be a .260/.380/.500 hitter, which would be a devastating loss. I only put the chance of that at about 10% or so (someone with more minor league knowledge, please correct me if I'm wrong), but there is also probably a 30% chance that he can turn into a .240/.330/.440 kind of hitter, and that's not all that worthless either. I would guess there is a 60% chance that he does not contribute at the major league level. If he puts up a line like .240/.330/.440, he is worth about 1.5 wins a year, or 9 wins over 6 years. If he puts up a line like .260/.380/.500, he is probably worth closer to 3 wins a year, or 18 wins over 6 years. So what you need to do is say well what is 60% of 0 wins, 30% of 9 wins, and 10% of 18 wins-- that's 4.5 wins.
I would say Geary is worth about 0.5 wins a year for the next 2 years, making him worth 1 win.
So we effectively just traded away an expected value of about 10.5 wins over 6 years. The cost of that is dependent on how good the players turn out to be an receive in arbitration. I would say that Bourn ends up making about 12MM over the next 5 years, Costanzo makes somewhere around 5MM on average over his 6 years of service (perhaps 25MM total in 3 arb years if he turns out to be a superstar, 8MM total in 3 arb years if he turns out to be a passable 3B, so expected cost is about 5MM). Geary probably makes 3MM over the next 2 years. So it's really a cost of about 20MM for 10.5 wins that we trade away.
Now we turn to what we gain-- let's say that we get Lidge at 6MM for 1 year, Bruntlett at 6MM total for 4 years, and a couple draft picks. That's 7MM spent on a move that probably adds 2 wins to the bench total over 4 years, adds 4 wins to the rotation in Myers over Durbin, and is a wash in the bullpen. So all in all, we just added 6 wins for 12MM plus two drafted picks, and lost about 10.5 wins for 20MM. That's probably a win, especially considering this team is set up to win now, and Costanzo's potential greatness in 2012 may be useless.
First of all, you are purely speculating. But assuming you somehow nailed it perfectly, the flaw is this: the guys we gave up may not have all played enough to fulfill those projections. If Costanzo never makes it up and or isn't used enough, if Bourn was platooning and spot-duty, if Geary was down in the middle of the pen... they might never give us those "extra wins" you tally. Lidge on the other hand and Myers we know they are going to be key cogs in the wheel. Your evaluation is too theoretical. Doesn't account for injury and a variety of things. You have guys doing stuff over 3 years, there's no telling these guys would have been in the lineup to produce even at the suggested levels over that 3 year span.
Nobody knows how a deal will truly work out, but on the face of it, we took on a credibile ML closer, gained the flex to move a former starter back in the rotation on a team with dreadful starting pitching and a nice R/L compliment potentail at the top of the rotation, for no one that we expect to become stars any time soon or ever. Hard to call it a bad move. You bring in the cost? That's not a fans problem. If Lidge saves 40 this year and stays healthy, he'll be worth everypenny. Put it this way -- what scenario more reasonably helps us get to a WS this year?!
I think we all know the answer to that.
