Disco Stu wrote:

Harry Monroe wrote:This has been said before, but we've gained a #2 starter in this trade in Myers. That's what makes it a blockbuster. Again, I don't like seeing Costanzo go, but I wonder what it is we're losing.

...just a warning, people liked the Gio-Gavin trade.

Some people didn't like that trade.

You know what? I liked that damn trade. It wasn't great, but it was pretty good. I was totally fine with that f**kin' trade until the indicators that he could have arm trouble turned out to be right. And then we find out due diligince had done a runner and left the MRI bride at the alter.

And the only reason I'm saying that is I'm sick of hearing about all the bloody people who didn't like that trade. It's okay to say 'I told you so' but we WON THE F***ING DIVISION PEOPLE.

You want to go on aobut a trade? We got raped on abreu and we dumped padilla for nothing. THOSE WERE REALLY CRAPPY TRADES.

F**KS SAKE.

I thought the Scots were the ones known for having a temper, not the Irish...

The Red Tornado wrote:I thought the Scots were the ones known for having a temper, not the Irish...

Man I love your baseball posts!

I think we need to start the clock on watching the next Houston closer as we seem the get them when they are done with them.

I forgot that Bourn is from Houston, so it will be a nice homecoming for him.

The Red Tornado wrote:I thought the Scots were the ones known for having a temper, not the Irish...

You're kidding right? We got two of our last three footie managers fired by being really pissed off.

I am glad this happened so early too. It is going to get harder and harder to trade for players as the off season progresses. I feel like Wade could have demanded much more in about a month.

CalvinBall wrote:I feel like Wade could have demanded much more in about a month.

Probably, but he was probably worried we'd trade Bourn in the meantime

Grotewold wrote:The only thing I don't love about this trade is that Gillick did it

Well, Wade was on the other end of the deal, so we've got that going for us.

Although it's been glossed over, I do have some concern on Lidge's knee surgery last week. While it was only surgery to repair some cartilage, it was his right knee... his pushoff leg. So his offseason program may be delayed some. How long, I dunno. But hopefully it'll only encompass his rest/recoup offseason period and his knee will be ready come time to start tossing/throwing.

thephan wrote:I think we need to start the clock on watching the next Houston closer as we seem the get them when they are done with them.

At least this one has been to a World Series...

Wizlah wrote:

Disco Stu wrote:

Harry Monroe wrote:This has been said before, but we've gained a #2 starter in this trade in Myers. That's what makes it a blockbuster. Again, I don't like seeing Costanzo go, but I wonder what it is we're losing.

...just a warning, people liked the Gio-Gavin trade.

Some people didn't like that trade.

You know what? I liked that damn trade. It wasn't great, but it was pretty good. I was totally fine with that f**kin' trade until the indicators that he could have arm trouble turned out to be right. And then we find out due diligince had done a runner and left the MRI bride at the alter.

And the only reason I'm saying that is I'm sick of hearing about all the bloody people who didn't like that trade. It's okay to say 'I told you so' but we WON THE F***ING DIVISION PEOPLE.

You want to go on aobut a trade? We got raped on abreu and we dumped padilla for nothing. THOSE WERE REALLY CRAPPY TRADES.

F**KS SAKE.

It goes without saying we got raped on Abreu.

TenuredVulture wrote:

Grotewold wrote:The only thing I don't love about this trade is that Gillick did it

Well, Wade was on the other end of the deal, so we've got that going for us.

Any trade with Wade is a good trade.

Notice the similarities -- Gillick is trying to get all of the players that he drafted back -- Wade has three of his recent draftees into the fold . . .

Assuming that you usually have to give up something to get something, it's hard to see the downside to this trade.

You think Amaro could talk Wade into an Eaton for Oswalt swap?

drsmooth wrote:

Wizlah wrote:

drsmooth wrote:I bet brundle hits for more power than bruntlett

plus he can fly

Yeah, but no one wants to sit beside him when he's spitting baccy.

can others 'sit' suspended upside down from the dugout ceiling?

He's not been the same though since they banned the spitball. Plus I hear he's a real corrosive character in the clubhouse.

Woody wrote:You think Amaro could talk Wade into an Eaton for Oswalt swap?

I think Gordon could give the Astros the sort of veteran leadership they're looking for in the bullpen.

When we analyze a trade like this, we usually look at expected value for each player, but in reality, that is not the way to go when looking at minor league prospects in a trade. With Lidge and Bruntlett, I think it is pretty clear what we are trading for. Geary is pretty much what he is, so he is somewhat of a known quantity as well. The question really comes down to how good Bourn and Costanzo will be.

People have a tendency to look at them and say "I don't expect Costanzo to be a major league player", and simply because he has less than a 50% chance of contributing at the major league level, they conclude he is worthless. In reality, there is some potential with Costanzo, and we don't need to take into account what he is on average-- we need to take into account what RANGE of possibilities there are if he makes the majors, and what chance each of those possibilities are.

I like the concept of trading Bourn because I see him to be a known quantity. Ultimately, he is a solid defender, a groundball hitter, with a bit of an eye, and no power. The only area where he may develop a little is power. But he is pretty much a guarantee not to turn into a slugger. It's actually pretty clear what he is, and he is pretty much as close to trading a known quantity as possible. He is a .280/.340/.380 kind of hitter, and the only slash stat that I expect may change is his slugging percentage a little in either direction. That is different than when usually trading a minor leaguer. Five years of that starting is maybe 5 wins above replacement combined.

Costanzo is a bit more of the x-factor in this trade. Naturally, we are inclined to think he is probably not a major leaguer and write this off as trading a AAAA guy. But with a power hitter like him, there is a chance that he could suddenly turn the corner and be a major middle of the lineup force. He could turn out to be a .260/.380/.500 hitter, which would be a devastating loss. I only put the chance of that at about 10% or so (someone with more minor league knowledge, please correct me if I'm wrong), but there is also probably a 30% chance that he can turn into a .240/.330/.440 kind of hitter, and that's not all that worthless either. I would guess there is a 60% chance that he does not contribute at the major league level. If he puts up a line like .240/.330/.440, he is worth about 1.5 wins a year, or 9 wins over 6 years. If he puts up a line like .260/.380/.500, he is probably worth closer to 3 wins a year, or 18 wins over 6 years. So what you need to do is say well what is 60% of 0 wins, 30% of 9 wins, and 10% of 18 wins-- that's 4.5 wins.

I would say Geary is worth about 0.5 wins a year for the next 2 years, making him worth 1 win.

So we effectively just traded away an expected value of about 10.5 wins over 6 years. The cost of that is dependent on how good the players turn out to be an receive in arbitration. I would say that Bourn ends up making about 12MM over the next 5 years, Costanzo makes somewhere around 5MM on average over his 6 years of service (perhaps 25MM total in 3 arb years if he turns out to be a superstar, 8MM total in 3 arb years if he turns out to be a passable 3B, so expected cost is about 5MM). Geary probably makes 3MM over the next 2 years. So it's really a cost of about 20MM for 10.5 wins that we trade away.

Now we turn to what we gain-- let's say that we get Lidge at 6MM for 1 year, Bruntlett at 6MM total for 4 years, and a couple draft picks. That's 7MM spent on a move that probably adds 2 wins to the bench total over 4 years, adds 4 wins to the rotation in Myers over Durbin, and is a wash in the bullpen. So all in all, we just added 6 wins for 12MM plus two drafted picks, and lost about 10.5 wins for 20MM. That's probably a win, especially considering this team is set up to win now, and Costanzo's potential greatness in 2012 may be useless.

lidge on jodi mac's show @ 3:30

Phan In Phlorida wrote:Although it's been glossed over, I do have some concern on Lidge's knee surgery last week. While it was only surgery to repair some cartilage, it was his right knee... his pushoff leg. So his offseason program may be delayed some. How long, I dunno. But hopefully it'll only encompass his rest/recoup offseason period and his knee will be ready come time to start tossing/throwing.

The guy is currently on crutches. Would it kill them to have their own doctor examine a player for once?

BigEd76 wrote:

philliesphhan wrote:heh, comical photoshop of lidge on csn

That was one of those "you have 40 minutes to do this!" deals where they chop a hat and jersey off someone else then paste over the existing one...

Didn't see any mention, but the reason why they showed it was because Lidge called into CSN to talk about the trade. He basically said that he's excited to come here and felt that a change of scenery is what he needed...

yeah he sounded pretty excited about coming here
but it is the offseason and he is a baseball player so it's pretty likely that he was just high