ReadingPhilly wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

dajafi wrote:I think the question at this point is whether you'd rather have Rowand back for four years, $44 million (my guess at what he'd accept from the Phillies or White Sox), or let him go, take the picks, and trade for Miguel Tejada at effectively two years, $26 million and then add a guy like Jenkins or Wilkerson to share time with Werth. In either scenario there will be 1-2 more bullpen acquisitions.

Depending on what Baltimore wants for Tejada, that's probably the option I'd choose. He's younger than Lowell and I think a move to a contender would revitalize his bat, and his righty power would be a huge asset in the Phils' lineup.

I doubt there's enough left to trade for Tejada, but maybe the O'd would be willing to pull an Abreu, just to dump salary. My guess is that the Phils won't want to trade anything of whatever they've got left to trade unless it's for more pitching. The good news is that there's enough room in the payroll (assuming it's going to ~$105MM) to re-sign Romero, sign Geoff Jenkins for ~$5MM and still have enough left to re-sign Lohse, if they want.

Rumor on the other board is that Mora is the one the Phils want to play third and he has said he would waive his NTC to come here.

Yeah, I just saw that. Not a big Mora fan. He's cheaper than Miggy, but also four years older and doesn't have as much power. I can't remember offhand if his defense is much good.

Drugs Delaney wrote:If it means a championship in 2008, I'd gladly trade it for losing seasons from 2009-2030.

Sure, a lot of phans feel that way now, but I bet there will be lots of crying and complaining around 2010-2011 if this scenario plays out

philliesphhan wrote:

Laexile wrote:I think Myers is a better closer,

really? I could see them being equal, but better? based on what?

Last year Lidge had a 3.36 ERA and was 19 for 27 on saves. Myers had a 2.87 ERA and was 21 for 24. ERA is a good measure for a closer as they rarely come in with runners on base or leave runners for other guys.

Myers allowed 4 home runs in 53.1 innings. Lidge allowed 9 in 67 innings. And now Lidge is moving to a home run park from a park that only favored homers slightly. Lidge really struggled in 2006 and has been reported as having confidence problems since the 2005 playoffs, where he lost the last three games he appeared in. Myers seemed to be embracing the role and looked like he'd grow. If Lidge can be the pitcher he was before Pujols, he's a great acquisition.

Laexile wrote:Myers allowed 4 home runs in 53.1 innings. Lidge allowed 9 in 67 innings. And now Lidge is moving to a home run park from a park that only favored homers slightly. Lidge really struggled in 2006 and has been reported as having confidence problems since the 2005 playoffs, where he lost the last three games he appeared in. Myers seemed to be embracing the role and looked like he'd grow. If Lidge can be the pitcher he was before Pujols, he's a great acquisition.

11.5% HR/Flyball for Lidge, 10.3% HR/Flyball for Myers. Both could be expected to give up a few more homeruns per flyball in CBP half the time which typically leads to 12.5% HR/Flyball or so (league average is about 11%, CBP inflates homeruns about 30% or so), and that variable has very little persistence (i.e. is mostly luck).

Regardless, it's hard to say that park effects really hurt Myers with the longball this year looking at this data.

Laexile wrote:

philliesphhan wrote:

Laexile wrote:I think Myers is a better closer,

really? I could see them being equal, but better? based on what?

Last year Lidge had a 3.36 ERA and was 19 for 27 on saves. Myers had a 2.87 ERA and was 21 for 24. ERA is a good measure for a closer as they rarely come in with runners on base or leave runners for other guys.

Myers allowed 4 home runs in 53.1 innings. Lidge allowed 9 in 67 innings. And now Lidge is moving to a home run park from a park that only favored homers slightly. Lidge really struggled in 2006 and has been reported as having confidence problems since the 2005 playoffs, where he lost the last three games he appeared in. Myers seemed to be embracing the role and looked like he'd grow. If Lidge can be the pitcher he was before Pujols, he's a great acquisition.

oh, I see, the nothing happened before 2007 argument
gotcha

Let's not overexagerate things here. This does not improve our bullpen. It is a sidestep at best. It does, however, significantly improve our starting rotation. I like the move, but it is worrisome on one level. We have no more at least slightly valuable high minors hitters left. Bourn and Costanzo were the last two above A (for the most part) and both are now gone. While they wouldn't have helped us, it would have been nicer to use them in separate deals.

I have 5 arms in my bullpen right now.

CL- Lidge
R- Gordon
R- Madson
R- Mathieson
L- Happ

That is how you start to make a good bullpen. If we can get Romero for no more than 2.5 a year (ugh, I think that is way too much), that adds a second lefty and gives us a solid 6.

philliesphhan wrote:

Laexile wrote:

philliesphhan wrote:

Laexile wrote:I think Myers is a better closer,

really? I could see them being equal, but better? based on what?

Last year Lidge had a 3.36 ERA and was 19 for 27 on saves. Myers had a 2.87 ERA and was 21 for 24. ERA is a good measure for a closer as they rarely come in with runners on base or leave runners for other guys.

Myers allowed 4 home runs in 53.1 innings. Lidge allowed 9 in 67 innings. And now Lidge is moving to a home run park from a park that only favored homers slightly. Lidge really struggled in 2006 and has been reported as having confidence problems since the 2005 playoffs, where he lost the last three games he appeared in. Myers seemed to be embracing the role and looked like he'd grow. If Lidge can be the pitcher he was before Pujols, he's a great acquisition.

oh, I see, the nothing happened before 2007 argument
gotcha

I see. The "I won't read the whole post" argument. Gotcha. I've bolded the part that talks about before 2007 for you.

Regardless, it's hard to say that park effects really hurt Myers with the longball this year looking at this data

Which should make him a good closer. Stu's right. At best this is a sidestep in the pen. And that's if Lidge regains his confidence.

I don't see how Mathieson should be counted on. He hasn't pitched in over a year. He had a 7.47 ERA in his time in the majors. That's worse than Adam Eaton bad. He needs to spend some time in AAA before you bring him up. Hope he pitches well and can help out later in the year.

Disco Stu wrote:Let's not overexagerate things here. This does not improve our bullpen. It is a sidestep at best. It does, however, significantly improve our starting rotation. I like the move, but it is worrisome on one level. We have no more at least slightly valuable high minors hitters left. Bourn and Costanzo were the last two above A (for the most part) and both are now gone. While they wouldn't have helped us, it would have been nicer to use them in separate deals.

I have 5 arms in my bullpen right now.

CL- Lidge
R- Gordon
R- Madson
R- Mathieson
L- Happ

That is how you start to make a good bullpen. If we can get Romero for no more than 2.5 a year (ugh, I think that is way too much), that adds a second lefty and gives us a solid 6.

I'd throw Bisenius in the mix, too. I'm not crazy about Lidge, but the bullpen doesn't look bad with Madson and Mathieson healthy (though I'd prefer to put Mathieson at AAA to get innings).

I like that gillick is moving quickly before options are narrowed.

Well, you don't even include all of 2007 since whatever Myers did a starter apparently doesn't count towards his overall numbers in your mind. Seriously, how does not even a full year as closer make you draw the conclusion that he's better? Which part of Lidge's time can I cut out from last year to make him look better? If you discount his April, his ERA was only 2.97!

Laexile wrote:
I don't see how Mathieson should be counted on. He hasn't pitched in over a year. He had a 7.47 ERA in his time in the majors. That's worse than Adam Eaton bad. He needs to spend some time in AAA before you bring him up. Hope he pitches well and can help out later in the year.

Because a) I don't make any decsions based off of 39 innings, especially 2 years ago, b) he was ready when he was called up originally and c) he is most likely better than any crap filler we could find out there to be our 5th or 6th man in the pen. You take your Alfonseca, I'll take my Mathieson and we'll see who wins out.

I am willng to bet the farm Myers is bck in the rotation since I got an email from the Phillies that they acquired a closer.

I'm one of those belivers in the "fresh start" theory for talented players not yet over the hill. Given the Phils being a legit contender and a whole new setting far from the concrete ugliness of Houston, I like Lidge's chances to succeed. If that's a side-step, no problem. No idea what Myers will be this year as a starter?? Not confident in Kendrick repeating 07 but it's possible. Not confident in Moyer getting through another 162 marathon, and don't even want to hear the name Eaton. I'm cool with Lohse, but still think the Phils need to find someone else because I suspect they will NEED someone else before the season is out.

On 3B, if there's a chance to get Miguel Tejada, he'll have a great year for the Phils with a lot of power and make our infield likely the best in the majors. Wouldn't much matter what we have in RF or whether Vic takes a step forwards. I'd rather have Tejada than Rowand, because I don't think Rowand will every duplicate what he did last year.

Don't care about depleting the thin farm, the time is now. Now.

I like this trade a lot. Myers to the starting rotation. A live, live arm for the pen. And a utility infielder who is a fast runner, can play all positions pretty well and who isn't an automatic cout (OBP of .351 and .346 the last two seasons).

The cost is almost nothing. I like Bourn but he may or may not be able to get on base enough to be an every day player. Costanzo may make a decent platoon bat but if he can't play third base in the bigs (and he may not be able to) then his value is really limited. And Geary is heroic but not all that good. I'd preferred the Phils go with Rosario and Zagurski and Biseneious and guys like that over Geary for their second tier relievers anyway. This just makes it easier.

I don't think the Phils need to even add another reliever (although if Romero comes at a reasonable price I wouldn't mind him back). I'm not even counting on Gordon. I think his shoulder is close to being toast. Even still, I don't think they need to spend much on another veteran type guy.

I'm surprised at the tepid response to this trade by some posters. There were 3 things that scared the hell out of me going into 2008:

1.) Brett Myers closing while the Phillies have a rotation of Hamels/Eaton/Moyer/Kendrick/Slop.

2.) 800 AB for Bourn and Victorino

3.) 250 more AB for Abe Nunez, the worst hitter in Phillies history

Gillick fixed all three in one sweep. The trade also forces Gillick's hand to one of 3 things in the remainder of the offseason.

1.) Sign a 3B (and platoon Dobbs with Werth)

2.) Sign a LHB platoon partner for Werth in RF (i.e. Jenkins).

3.) Re-sign Rowand.

I'd rather 1 or 2.

What is not to like about this trade?

Bourn is a substantial net negative to this team if he is starting in RF or even platooning. Either Victorino or Bourn had to be traded or the offense would suffer greatly.

Costanzo will never be a starting 3B in the ML. He was already playing the OF in the AFL, and his bat is nowhere near sufficient to hold down an everyday corner OF spot.

Is Lidge better than Myers? Probably not, but who cares. Myers HR rate was unsustainable in light of his FB% and the park he pitches in, so I don't expect much difference between the two in 2008 as closers. Myers to the rotation is heaven sent.

In terms of depleting the farm system, I'd say what farm system. The drafts from 2003 to 2005 were horrific. These are the players that should be filtering into the ML now. Fortunately, the Phillies don't need them right now. 1B, 2B, SS, CF, and the top 2 spots in the rotation are locked up for the next 3-5 years barring injury. Come 2012 or so, those players will be on the severe downside and it will be time to retool. Bourn (25)and Costanzo (24) would only be marginally helpful to that effort.

If I'm the Phillies management, I'm focused on rebuilding the farm for 2012 and beyond. Trading for a Lidge and letting him walk will get you 2 draft picks (Lidge is a solid Type A this year), as will Burrell, in 2008.

I'm down with this trade. I had some love for Costanzo, but frankly, dude is a butcher with the glove and probably won't stick at 3B. And offensively, he's streaky at best, and has never hit well early in a season (before all the callups). I think he has some potential and he's probably the kind of guy that will manage to have 1 or 2 good offensive seasons in his career, but that's not something we can't replace. Geary is whatever, average middle reliever type, we can replace that. Bourn is the only one difficult to replace, but he hasn't shown any sort of significant offensive ability at the big league level yet. He's certainly capable, but I don't think we lose all that much there.

Lidge gives us a guy who has a history as a solid closer and really just had 1 terrible year and a bad start to last year. Bruntlett is something we need and I'd prefer him over other possible options like Nunez. And then with Myers going back to the rotation, we just did something for the starting staff that was far better than anything we could have done on the free agent market at this point.

I think this was a good trade. And last time we traded the Astros a bunch of prospects for their closer, we got a damn good pitcher for three guys who basically all washed out. Hopefully history will repeat itself here.

Really like this deal as it MAINTAINS the bullpen (since so many say that Myers is a Lidge equivalent or better) while greatly enhancing the rotation.

Some points/questions:

1) Any chance with Costanzo gone and the cupboard bare that the Phils move Cardenas to 3rd this year? I know there are arm strength issues but I have to believe they could work to improve upon that.

2) I like that this deal was done this early. I think Myers deserves and needs enough time to get back into a starter's frame of mind as well as physique. This affords that.

3) Man alive Cot's is quick! Already has Lidge listed on the Phillies with salary history. So he made $5.35MM last year. Does that mean about $7-8MM in arbitration?

4) OF is real thin now if Rowand doesn't return. As it stands now with the guys we have - Burrell, Victorino & Werth and Roberson as the 4th OF? Something has to give

Apparently Myers is already on record to say that he is "disappointed"

smitty wrote: And Geary is heroic but not all that good.

Class line. A tip of the prose writing hat to you, sir.

If the choice is cordero, myers or lidge as a closer, I'm happy with lidge. Lidge is younger than cordero and shows higher k/9 in 05 and 06. He was lower this year, but cordero posted a career high, which definitely makes me prefer lidge. Also, this year was the first year lidge put up a G/F ratio of 1, and for the most part he's favoured groundballs (not extremely, but better than cordero). Him vs Myers on numbers alone, I'd actually prefer myers, in so far as myers has better G/F ration and his k/9 as a closer was good. although not as high as lidge's has been in the past. But it's not numbers alone - lidge gives us myers than starter, so I'm taking that. Outside of getting Mo on a free agents deal, which would cost us plenty, it seems to me that's as good as you're going to get for a closer.

In terms of what we gave up, I'm okay with bourn. Of Vic and Bourn, I preferred vic to stay, as although potentially more expensive, I liked the extra power in his bat and his arm. I felt bourn was more of a gamble because I couldn't say for sure that his power was going to develop, so his OBP skills would have to improve a lot. I'm not saying this *won't* happen, but it's a gamble, and given that we know what we've got with vic, trading on bourn's potential, especially when all his best assets were on display this year . . . well that seems a sensible way to get good value.

Sad to see geary go, but only because I've a soft spot for the guy's commitment. He was up and down this year after two pretty good years, so it's a shame, but hardly surprising.

As for costanzo, the thing I keep reading is 'complex swing', error-prone at 3rd and good raw power. I note in reading floppy's bits on him that in the last year his BB rate dropped against lefthanders. All of that says to me that you're gambling on his plate approach and pitch identification improving as he may have problems hitting for average. Yes, it sucks that we have lost another position player from the system, but gillick proved one good thing last year - he can dumpster dive effectively, so maybe the backup position players can be replaced short term.

Seems to me we traded on the basis of bourn and costanzo being able to show the best of their ability this year (costanzo had another strong finish in the minors, bourn showed excellent baserunning and reasonable OBP). I have no problem with that. The only thing that worries me (because we wouldn't fret if we weren't phillies phans) is the walk rate. I can live with the homeruns, but seeing as how both the homeruns and the walks have spiked at the same time, if he controls the walks, I guess we see fewer dingers. Here though I draw hope from his age - it seems to me at 30 he might get this sorted - if he was 33 I would be less hopeful.

Trent Steele wrote:Gillick fixed all three in one sweep. The trade also forces Gillick's hand to one of 3 things in the remainder of the offseason.

1.) Sign a 3B (and platoon Dobbs with Werth)

2.) Sign a LHB platoon partner for Werth in RF (i.e. Jenkins).

3.) Re-sign Rowand.

I think it also gives gillick some room for maneuver on this. Because we definitely have 2 3b's on the market (A-Rod and Cabrera) and lowell may be there two, it means gillick can look how that plays out and if he can get a good price on Miggy, or look at a lamb option. Plus he has the money to put up for Rowand if that's the way he wants to go. It seems to me there's no need to agressively chase either with money/trading prospects. Compare this to a situation where he was looking to bid on cordero OR a starting pitcher OR rowand.

Plus, as you say, nice to know that if lidge goes, we get the draft picks.

Pretty good deal, methinks, and like you say - it addresses needs with a minimum cost to us.

stevemc wrote:
3) Man alive Cot's is quick! Already has Lidge listed on the Phillies with salary history. So he made $5.35MM last year. Does that mean about $7-8MM in arbitration?

so, on top of the other advantages, we get flexibility where we're maybe paying going rate for a good closer for one year, rather been looked into a 3/4 year deal on an older guy. Good.