PHILLIES GOT BRAD LIDGE!!!!!

by **smitty** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 15:51:10

Nate Silver of BP doesn't like the trade from the Phils POV:

Is that worth giving up two good prospects in the form of Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo? No, and it isn’t close. Costanzo is not a Grade-A prospect, but he had a very solid year in Reading, where his 27 home runs placed him second in the Eastern League. That translates to a .263 EqA in our hot-off-the-presses Davenport Translations, indicating that he could be a major league average third baseman right about now, probably along the lines of a Steve Buechele type of player, which would be very encouraging for a 24-year-old.

Bourn, meanwhile, has less upside but more locked-in value, and by all signs is poised for a 3-5 year run as a league-average center fielder. Projected by PECOTA for a .271/.346/.401 performance prior to the start of the season, he spent the entire year on the Phillies bench, essentially matching his projection with a .277/.353/.378 batting line over 119 at-bats. Although those batting numbers are superficially unimpressive, consider that the average National League center fielder posted a .273/.336/.426 batting line last year, which is highly comparable in value to Bourn’s. Bourn also accumulated 18 stolen bases in 19 attempts, a remarkable record for a player that was usually coming in cold as a pinch-runner in obvious stealing situations. Essentially, he’s the player that Juan Pierre is supposed to be.

Link

He's saying Lidge is a good pickup but he'll only give the Phils one year. I guess he doesn't like draft picks. I don't think he's considering the move of Myers back to the rotation either. I like reading BP but there's no way they can keep up with all the teams and all of the things going on with them

I think he's a lot more optimistic regarding Costanzo than I am. I'm not sure Davenport Translations acccount for Costanzo's inability ot hit lefties or breaking balls or his horrible defense. (although I think he can be a potent platoon bat in the bigs maybe). I think this trade is really Lidge for Bourne. And the Phils get a near ace starter out of the deal too. I'm pretty happy with that.

by **Trent Steele** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 15:57:12

smitty wrote:Nate Silver of BP doesn't like the trade from the Phils POV:

Is that worth giving up two good prospects in the form of Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo? No, and it isn’t close. Costanzo is not a Grade-A prospect, but he had a very solid year in Reading, where his 27 home runs placed him second in the Eastern League. That translates to a .263 EqA in our hot-off-the-presses Davenport Translations, indicating that he could be a major league average third baseman right about now, probably along the lines of a Steve Buechele type of player, which would be very encouraging for a 24-year-old.

Bourn, meanwhile, has less upside but more locked-in value, and by all signs is poised for a 3-5 year run as a league-average center fielder. Projected by PECOTA for a .271/.346/.401 performance prior to the start of the season, he spent the entire year on the Phillies bench, essentially matching his projection with a .277/.353/.378 batting line over 119 at-bats. Although those batting numbers are superficially unimpressive, consider that the average National League center fielder posted a .273/.336/.426 batting line last year, which is highly comparable in value to Bourn’s. Bourn also accumulated 18 stolen bases in 19 attempts, a remarkable record for a player that was usually coming in cold as a pinch-runner in obvious stealing situations. Essentially, he’s the player that Juan Pierre is supposed to be.

Link

He's saying Lidge is a good pickup but he'll only give the Phils one year. I guess he doesn't like draft picks. I don't think he's considering the move of Myers back to the rotation either. I like reading BP but there's no way they can keep up with all the teams and all of the things going on with them

I think he's a lot more optimistic regarding Costanzo than I am. I'm not sure Davenport Translations acccount for Costanzo's inability ot hit lefties or breaking balls or his horrible defense. (although I think he can be a potent platoon bat in the bigs maybe). I think this trade is really Lidge for Bourne. And the Phils get a near ace starter out of the deal too. I'm pretty happy with that.

Agree. How much different are Dobbs and Costanzo going to be for the next few years? Neither can play 3B well, the cost won't be signficiantly different (I don't think Dobbs has 2 years of service time), and neither can hit LHP. Dobbs hit .272 .330 .451 in 350 AB last year. Does anyone expect Costanzo to do better than that in the next 2-3 years?

by **The Dude** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 15:58:15

That's mean Woody

by **JayBallz** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:06:40

BigEd76 wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:heh, comical photoshop of lidge on csn

That was one of those "you have 40 minutes to do this!" deals where they chop a hat and jersey off someone else then paste over the existing one...

Didn't see any mention, but the reason why they showed it was because Lidge called into CSN to talk about the trade. He basically said that he's excited to come here and felt that a change of scenery is what he needed...

I recall Wagz giving the same interview, during which he called #53, "Bobby AY-broo".

by **pacino** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:20:54

JayBallz wrote:
BigEd76 wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:heh, comical photoshop of lidge on csn

That was one of those "you have 40 minutes to do this!" deals where they chop a hat and jersey off someone else then paste over the existing one...

Didn't see any mention, but the reason why they showed it was because Lidge called into CSN to talk about the trade. He basically said that he's excited to come here and felt that a change of scenery is what he needed...

I recall Wagz giving the same interview, during which he called #53, "Bobby AY-broo".

To be fair, some people pronounce Abreu 'Uh-brew' Others pronounce it the way Bobby does.

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:23:09

I've never heard him pronounce his name.

by **R.J. MacReady** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:25:58

I got home late last night drunk and thought it was a solid trade but wasn't sure if my thinking was clouded. Sober today I still think it was a great trade. We didn't give up much and received a solid closer allowing Myers to return to the rotation. I liked Myers as our closer but the market for starters is weak and moving Myers back to the rotation was the best move. I was never a big fan of Constanzo thinking he wouldn't amount to much in the majors. Geary isn't much of a loss. I liked Bourn but not upset he's gone as we needed pitching help. I like the trade.

by **BigEd76** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:32:42

So who starts at 3rd for the IronPigs? Some generic 31-yr old AAAA guy?

by **philliesr98** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:37:08

BigEd76 wrote:So who starts at 3rd for the IronPigs? Some generic 31-yr old AAAA guy?

king?

by **CFP** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:44:56

Lidge on 950:
Likes pitching here
Excited to be here
Played with Utley in WBC and Rollins in 2005 ASG
"Team has the capability of being in the World Series"
"Met Jamie Moyer in the past"
Enjoyed playing for Jimy Williams in Houston
Very happy, excited once again
Hopes to be here for a while

by **Grotewold** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:47:15

ColeforPresident wrote:Likes pitching here

Well that was interesting and refreshing to hear huh

All in all he was cool like he was on the next bar stool

by **BigEd76** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:48:24

Wasn't sure if King was back or not....

Randarino got some quotes from Manuel:

"I like the trade. Lidge throws 97 with 91-mph slider. What's wrong with that? He's a power guy and he's our closer."
.
.
"I told Myers he's going back in the rotation and at first I think we caught him by surprise. I told him we didn't want to do it, but I think Brett trusts me and when you look at the free agent list, he's way better than anyone out there. I think by the time we hung up, he was fine.”
.
.
"He got some criticism last year and people think he had a bad year, but if you look at his hits-per-inning, his strikeouts and his walks ... hell, his numbers are pretty damn good"
.
.
"We are still interested in beefing up our rotation. I don't know if we can go into the season 100 percent thinking Eaton is going to be OK."
.
.
“Bruntlett can play all over, but he's supposed to be a very good defensive player and he'll play a lot at third late in games."
.
.
"If we had a guy at third base that could hit 30 homers, maybe we could play Victorino and Bourn. On our ballclub, at best Bourn is a fourth outfielder."

by **The Dude** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:49:50

Manuel wrote:"He got some criticism last year and people think he had a bad year, but if you look at his hits-per-inning, his strikeouts and his walks ... hell, his numbers are pretty damn good"

That's good to see

by **CFP** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:50:59

CFP wrote:
Manuel wrote:""We are still interested in beefing up our rotation. I don't know if we can go into the season 100 percent thinking Eaton is going to be OK." "

That's good to see as well

by **Trent Steele** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:51:26

For a dope, Charlie's no dope

by **dajafi** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 16:52:49

smitty wrote:Nate Silver of BP doesn't like the trade from the Phils POV:

Is that worth giving up two good prospects in the form of Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo? No, and it isn’t close. Costanzo is not a Grade-A prospect, but he had a very solid year in Reading, where his 27 home runs placed him second in the Eastern League. That translates to a .263 EqA in our hot-off-the-presses Davenport Translations, indicating that he could be a major league average third baseman right about now, probably along the lines of a Steve Buechele type of player, which would be very encouraging for a 24-year-old.

Bourn, meanwhile, has less upside but more locked-in value, and by all signs is poised for a 3-5 year run as a league-average center fielder. Projected by PECOTA for a .271/.346/.401 performance prior to the start of the season, he spent the entire year on the Phillies bench, essentially matching his projection with a .277/.353/.378 batting line over 119 at-bats. Although those batting numbers are superficially unimpressive, consider that the average National League center fielder posted a .273/.336/.426 batting line last year, which is highly comparable in value to Bourn’s. Bourn also accumulated 18 stolen bases in 19 attempts, a remarkable record for a player that was usually coming in cold as a pinch-runner in obvious stealing situations. Essentially, he’s the player that Juan Pierre is supposed to be.

Link

He's saying Lidge is a good pickup but he'll only give the Phils one year. I guess he doesn't like draft picks. I don't think he's considering the move of Myers back to the rotation either. I like reading BP but there's no way they can keep up with all the teams and all of the things going on with them

I think he's a lot more optimistic regarding Costanzo than I am. I'm not sure Davenport Translations acccount for Costanzo's inability ot hit lefties or breaking balls or his horrible defense. (although I think he can be a potent platoon bat in the bigs maybe). I think this trade is really Lidge for Bourne. And the Phils get a near ace starter out of the deal too. I'm pretty happy with that.

DTs also don't take into account--at least I don't think--that Costanzo racked up his big numbers against second-half Eastern League pitching depleted of many of the best arms that started the season there.

Maybe he puts it all together, but losing Costanzo doesn't scare me. I think his likely upside is as a platoon four-corners guy who draws some walks, hits some homers, strikes out a lot and plays lousy defense.

by **Disco Stu** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 17:02:04

Trent Steele wrote:For a dope, Charlie's no dope

Except he said that if he had a 3rd baseman, he'd sit Burrell. That is pretty dopey (unless he was referrng to Werth, which is less dopey, but still dopey none-the-less).

by 1 » Thu Nov 08, 2007 17:10:41

I think it's more fun to say Bob Abroo-e

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 17:17:24

I have to say this trade is encouraging on so many indirect levels. We have Amaro and Manuel both quoted raving at peripheral statistics, the indication that they understand Myers is a good starter and weren't averse to putting him back there when they saw they couldn't upgrade their rotation as well as their bullpen, a further acknowledgement that they understand they should be in win-now mode, and an indication that they don't overvalue toolsy no-power outfielders.

I think the difference in the trade is really the draft picks. Costanzo probably won't ever be useful, but he does have a shot at being a major middle of the lineup power hitter and that needs to be taken into account. Bourn also probably will just be a 4th OF but he has a shot at being an ok CF with no power but good defense and a decent eye. Taking into account all of these factors, the players themselves come out to be a bit of a wash, but the possibility of getting a couple of draft picks for Lidge, or even resigning him if he's a good fit, really are what gives the Phillies the edge in this trade IMO.

by **Disco Stu** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 17:25:29

MattS wrote:I have to say this trade is encouraging on so many indirect levels. We have Amaro and Manuel both quoted raving at peripheral statistics, the indication that they understand Myers is a good starter and weren't averse to putting him back there when they saw they couldn't upgrade their rotation as well as their bullpen, a further acknowledgement that they understand they should be in win-now mode, and an indication that they don't overvalue toolsy no-power outfielders.

I think the difference in the trade is really the draft picks. Costanzo probably won't ever be useful, but he does have a shot at being a major middle of the lineup power hitter and that needs to be taken into account. Bourn also probably will just be a 4th OF but he has a shot at being an ok CF with no power but good defense and a decent eye. Taking into account all of these factors, the players themselves come out to be a bit of a wash, but the possibility of getting a couple of draft picks for Lidge, or even resigning him if he's a good fit, really are what gives the Phillies the edge in this trade IMO.

Man, you know I love ya and all, but you are thinking too boradly here. While resigning him or getting picks are a definite benefit, the real value is what he is going to bring to this team next year. If the Phils make the WS and he closes out game 7 and we ended up losing him for nothing, would you call that a net loss? Lidge, himself, might not be an even trade in overall value, but his team value could be extraordinarily high if it puts them over the "hump".

I'd like to see a break down of the value of adding extra resources to teams at different levels and what net return it has on their overall play. Lidge on the Pirates might have more value since he could impact more games and be useful in more appearances. For the Phils, he may be useful in less appearances (since we are likely to have more 3 run saves or him working in blowouts), but the few games he does have impact on is a step up from what we had at the time (in concept).

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PHILLIES GOT BRAD LIDGE!!!!!