PHILLIES GOT BRAD LIDGE!!!!!

by **JFLNYC** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 17:26:31

MattS wrote:So all in all, we just added 6 wins for 12MM plus two drafted picks, and lost about 10.5 wins for 20MM. That's probably a win, especially considering this team is set up to win now, and Costanzo's potential greatness in 2012 may be useless.

Based on recent payroll and performance, the Phils have been paying an overall average of a bit above $1MM/win for the last few years. If your numbers are correct and if you assume (as I think it's reasonable to do) that each win becomes progressively more expensive and wins numbered 90 and above are the most expensive, $2MM/additional win from this deal seems very reasonable. Put otherwise, if the goal is to add at least five more wins (to get to 94) in 2008 and the cost is $10MM additional to the payroll, that would seem to be a good investment. If this first deal adds three more of those wins for $6MM, we're right on track.

by **Laexile** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 17:26:32

ColeforPresident wrote:
CFP wrote:
Manuel wrote:""We are still interested in beefing up our rotation. I don't know if we can go into the season 100 percent thinking Eaton is going to be OK." "

That's good to see as well

I think Charlie is talking about Eaton's health and not, unfortunately, his ability.

DTs also don't take into account--at least I don't think--that Costanzo racked up his big numbers against second-half Eastern League pitching depleted of many of the best arms that started the season there.

This is what I call the inarguable position. If Costanzo hits poorly in the second half of the season, he's not a good hitter. If he hits well, the performance is irrelevant because Eastern League pitching is depleted. There's no way Costanzo can win with that argument.

Do we know that the Eastern League really is depleted or do we just assume that? Certainly some pitchers were promoted, but how many? Let's take the Reading Phillies, for example. They lost Kyle Kendrick in June, but added Pat Overholt, Carlos Carrasco and Zack Segovia. Carrasco has a better arm than Kendrick, so he could conceivably make pitching tougher. Segovia was supposed to be better than AA, but he struggled at AAA. Later Matt Maloney was traded, but not promoted, and the Phillies promoted Josh Outman. Outman was also higher rated than either Kendrick or Maloney.

Of course some promoted A ball pitchers will struggle. Others like Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain, both of him pitched June and July in the Eastern League, made the League tougher, not easier.

If the Eastern League got easier as the season wore on, then that would mean that Costanzo's numbers aren't as good as they look. That doesn't mean they should be disregarded.

by **dajafi** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 17:30:10

Laexile wrote: If the Eastern League got easier as the season wore on, then that would mean that Costanzo's numbers aren't as good as they look. That doesn't mean they should be disregarded.

...which was actually my point, rather than saying "Costanzo's worthless." Silver posited that Costanzo could put up a .263 EQA in the big leagues; I suggested that this conclusion might be faulty because it's based on a possibly faulty premise.

His struggles in the AzFL don't particularly bode well for how he'll do against "top prospects," though.

But "the inarguable position" is clever. So you got that going for you.

by **bleh** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 17:32:10

The Phils are going to be cursed at 3rd base forever. They traded away Rolen, then Polanco. This alone makes me think Costanzo will probably be an all star in a couple years. And how many guys have the Phils had recently who hit 27 homeruns in the minors? I've read his scouting report, but still...

Geary was average, but he probably had more innings in relief than anyone over the last 3-4 years. Start the countdown until they sign a "veteran reliever" to take his place.

Not having the "easily replaceable " Bourn means we'll probably be seeing more of Chris Roberson sometime.

And we've been wanting to get rid of Nunez for 2 years, now we have Abe Nunez 2.0 in Bruntlett.

And all they get is a guy who is going to pitch 70 innings.

Mabye if they sign a good 3rd baseman it will be a good trade, but I have a feeling they are just going to use the money saved to re-sign Rowand who will hit .260 again next year.

And saying it's good because we get a starter in Myers is a logical fallacy.

by **Laexile** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 17:36:45

Costanzo did struggle in the AFL, but it wasn't a huge sample and he's a notorious slow starter. That doesn't mean it doesn't mean anything. What I like about Costanzo is his walk rate. Even though he didn't hit in the AFL he had a walk every 8.1 plate appearances. I like walk rates with minor leaguers for two reasons. Most don't have good walk rates. It's usually a skill they have to develop. He's already got it. The one constant minors to majors is the strike zone. A ball is a ball. A strike is a strike. Most hitting stats drop from the minors, at least initially. 27 homers at AA could be 10 in the bigs. But if he knows a ball, that should translate.

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 17:47:39

JFLNYC wrote:
MattS wrote:So all in all, we just added 6 wins for 12MM plus two drafted picks, and lost about 10.5 wins for 20MM. That's probably a win, especially considering this team is set up to win now, and Costanzo's potential greatness in 2012 may be useless.

Based on recent payroll and performance, the Phils have been paying an overall average of a bit above $1MM/win for the last few years. If your numbers are correct and if you assume (as I think it's reasonable to do) that each win becomes progressively more expensive and wins numbered 90 and above are the most expensive, $2MM/additional win from this deal seems very reasonable. Put otherwise, if the goal is to add at least five more wins (to get to 94) in 2008 and the cost is $10MM additional to the payroll, that would seem to be a good investment. If this first deal adds three more of those wins for $6MM, we're right on track.

I don't really think you can say the Phillies pay $1MM/win. For one thing, you have to consider marginal wins-- a replacement level team costs $10MM and wins 45 games. So 89 wins for $95MM is really 44 wins at a price of $85MM more marginally.

The other thing is that you have to consider the free agent market as the alternative. 3-win players typically are going for close to 10MM nowadays and 6-win players typically are going for close to 20MM nowadays, so I think giving away 4.5 wins at $8MM is pretty much trading away $7MM.

The DIFFERENCE though is (1) 1st/2nd round draft picks have an expected value of 10MM or so (certainly more than 3.5MM on average), and (2) As Stu pointed out, adding wins now is good.

My whole point is that this is close to a draw when you consider that it helps the Astros about as much when they can expect to be competitive as it does the Phillies during a time when they are competitive. The difference is that it also adds a couple draft picks.

by 1 » Thu Nov 08, 2007 18:00:59

DNL starts with a clip of Lidge striking out Endy Chavez.

by **JFLNYC** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 18:04:57

JFLNYC wrote:Based on recent payroll and performance, the Phils have been paying an overall average of a bit above $1MM/win for the last few years. If your numbers are correct and if you assume (as I think it's reasonable to do) that each win becomes progressively more expensive and wins numbered 90 and above are the most expensive, $2MM/additional win from this deal seems very reasonable. Put otherwise, if the goal is to add at least five more wins (to get to 94) in 2008 and the cost is $10MM additional to the payroll, that would seem to be a good investment. If this first deal adds three more of those wins for $6MM, we're right on track.

MattS wrote:I don't really think you can say the Phillies pay $1MM/win. For one thing, you have to consider marginal wins-- a replacement level team costs $10MM and wins 45 games. So 89 wins for $95MM is really 44 wins at a price of $85MM more marginally.

That's why I said that ~$1MM/win was "an overall average." And saying, as I did, that "each win becomes progressively more expensive and wins numbered 90 and above are the most expensive," does, in fact, consider marginal win costs.

MattS wrote:The other thing is that you have to consider the free agent market as the alternative. 3-win players typically are going for close to 10MM nowadays and 6-win players typically are going for close to 20MM nowadays, so I think giving away 4.5 wins at $8MM is pretty much trading away $7MM.

If you're correct, aren't you saying that 3- and 6-win players, therefore, cost over $3MM? So, I think we are agreeing that if the Phils were able to get 3 more marginal wins this year @ $2MM/win, not only have they done well financially but, as you pointed out, since this is a team set up to win now, those wins are certainly more valuable to the Phils than the same wins that Costanzo might bring a couple of years down the road. Further, if you apply net present value principles, 6 wins/$12MM now is a better investment than 10.5 wins/$20MM later, thereby justifying, at least in part, any added expense.

MattS wrote:The DIFFERENCE though is (1) 1st/2nd round draft picks have an expected value of 10MM or so (certainly more than 3.5MM on average), and (2) As Stu pointed out, adding wins now is good.

My whole point is that this is close to a draw when you consider that it helps the Astros about as much when they can expect to be competitive as it does the Phillies during a time when they are competitive. The difference is that it also adds a couple draft picks.

As I said, I think we are agreeing, although one could argue (as Stu has) that, in an otherwise equal trade, wins now are always better than wins later since the latter do not have the NPV of the former.

by **smitty** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 18:14:25

bleh wrote:
The Phils are going to be cursed at 3rd base forever. They traded away Rolen, then Polanco. This alone makes me think Costanzo will probably be an all star in a couple years. And how many guys have the Phils had recently who hit 27 homeruns in the minors? I've read his scouting report, but still...

Polanco was really a 2Bman and played 2B with Detroit. Rolen or green or someone pretty much forced the trade. But you're right. 3B has been cursed position since the Schmidt/Rolen era.

Geary was average, but he probably had more innings in relief than anyone over the last 3-4 years. Start the countdown until they sign a "veteran reliever" to take his place.

They have Madson and Romero and Gordon. They have Mateo if he avoids jail or something nearly as bad. I think they have plenty of vets. I hope you're wrong and Gillick and company agree with me. I'm not sure they will. Gillick and Manuel both "lurrrve" the vet relievers. I hope the Phils get rid of Alfonseca and Mesa and go with some guys from the Zagurski/Bisenius/Castro/Mathieson/Rosario/Durbin group of pitchers to round ou the pen.

Not having the "easily replaceable " Bourn means we'll probably be seeing more of Chris Roberson sometime.

I don't think we'll ever see Roberson on the Phils' active regular season roster again unless a whole bunch of guys get hurt. Brumlett is speedy and can play the outfield. I hope ther go into 2008 with and OF of Burrell, Victorino and Werth plus a guy like Jenkins and a guy like Jacobs or even T.J. Bohn.

And we've been wanting to get rid of Nunez for 2 years, now we have Abe Nunez 2.0 in Bruntlett.

Brumlett is cheaper, much faster, more versatile and gets on base pretty well. Nunez had no offensive value. I'm curious how good a fielder Brumlett is. If he's a great glove man, he'll be more valuable than Nunez and much cheaper.

And all they get is a guy who is going to pitch 70 innings.

70 high leverage innings. Plus they "get" a number 1A or 2 starter as Myers goes back to where he belongs. And they also get a chance to put guys like Madson, Gordon, Romero and others into roles that they are good at. The Phils might have a very fine bullpen next season. If they do, I expect Lidge to be a very big reason why.

Mabye if they sign a good 3rd baseman it will be a good trade, but I have a feeling they are just going to use the money saved to re-sign Rowand who will hit .260 again next year.

That might be my number one fear going into next season. Four or so really expensive years of a lot of mediocre hitting and injuries when they can put Vic in CF and quite possibly get better production and defense.

And saying it's good because we get a starter in Myers is a logical fallacy.

I don't see the flaw in the logic but logic wasn't a required course for me. :wink:

by 1 » Thu Nov 08, 2007 18:16:09

I was under the impression that Lidge was a good ol' boy. I take it back. I like this trade.

by **CalvinBall** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 18:20:54

Lidge was on DNL and talked about how he tried out a cutting fastball the beginning of this past season and admitted he was terrible at it. After the first month he decided to stop using it. He also said having the knee trouble throughout the season was bothersome.

by **JFLNYC** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 18:21:03

smitty wrote:I'm curious how good a fielder Brumlett is. If he's a great glove man, he'll be more valuable than Nunez and much cheaper.

The good news is that he appears to be very much the OF Bourn is. The bad news is he appears to be a below-average IF at 2B and SS. at 3B there's just not enough data, but his stats at 2B and SS don't bode well.

by **smitty** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 18:24:09

1 wrote:I was under the impression that Lidge was a good ol' boy. I take it back. I like this trade.

And I thought he was Canadian. Funny that.

Hey, the dude is a Golden Domer. I don't think they allow good 'ol boys or Canadiens in there.

Golden Dome!

by **CalvinBall** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 18:24:30

Conlin asked if Lidge would be ok being a set-up man for Myers if the Phillies go that route. Is he unaware that moving Myers back to the rotation helps this team out immensely?

by 1 » Thu Nov 08, 2007 18:25:47

smitty wrote:
1 wrote:I was under the impression that Lidge was a good ol' boy. I take it back. I like this trade.

And I thought he was Canadian. Funny that.

Hey, the dude is a Golden Domer. I don't think they allow good 'ol boys or Canadiens in there.

Golden Dome!

Now I hate it again. Thanks.

by **smitty** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 18:25:55

JFLNYC wrote:
smitty wrote:I'm curious how good a fielder Brumlett is. If he's a great glove man, he'll be more valuable than Nunez and much cheaper.

The good news is that he appears to be very much the OF Bourn is. The bad news is he appears to be a below-average IF at 2B and SS. at 3B there's just not enough data, but his stats at 2B and SS don't bode well.

I'm not too hip to the defensive stats but that's the impression I got too.

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 18:28:26

Conlin doesn't even know that Lieber is a free agent.

by 1 » Thu Nov 08, 2007 18:33:53

Houshphandzadeh wrote:Conlin doesn't even know that Lieber is a free agent.

I honestly believe that Conlin knows less about baseball than the entire Peck household.

by **Laexile** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 19:01:56

smitty wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:
smitty wrote:I'm curious how good a fielder Brumlett is. If he's a great glove man, he'll be more valuable than Nunez and much cheaper.

The good news is that he appears to be very much the OF Bourn is. The bad news is he appears to be a below-average IF at 2B and SS. at 3B there's just not enough data, but his stats at 2B and SS don't bode well.

I'm not too hip to the defensive stats but that's the impression I got too.

Charlie don't no back-up at second base and shortstop. Rollins started every game and Utley almost did before the injury. While I don't like Brunlett, this isn't a worry. If there's an injury, it would be nice to have someone who could hit though.

by **Woody** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 19:49:39

1 wrote:
Houshphandzadeh wrote:Conlin doesn't even know that Lieber is a free agent.

I honestly believe that Conlin knows less about baseball than the entire Peck household.

WTF dude i thought we was bros

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PHILLIES GOT BRAD LIDGE!!!!!