PHILLIES GOT BRAD LIDGE!!!!!

Postby 1 » Thu Nov 08, 2007 20:04:56

Woody wrote:
1 wrote:
Houshphandzadeh wrote:Conlin doesn't even know that Lieber is a free agent.


I honestly believe that Conlin knows less about baseball than the entire Peck household.


WTF dude i thought we was bros


I was talking about Danielle.
Fine. You wanna act like you're two? I'll act like I'm one.

1
Moderator / BSG MVP
Moderator / BSG MVP
 
Posts: 51703
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 17:55:17
Location: (sending check)

Postby MattS » Thu Nov 08, 2007 20:50:04

JFLNYC wrote:That's why I said that ~$1MM/win was "an overall average." And saying, as I did, that "each win becomes progressively more expensive and wins numbered 90 and above are the most expensive," does, in fact, consider marginal win costs.


okay, I just wasn't sure.

JFLNYC wrote:
MattS wrote:The other thing is that you have to consider the free agent market as the alternative. 3-win players typically are going for close to 10MM nowadays and 6-win players typically are going for close to 20MM nowadays, so I think giving away 4.5 wins at $8MM is pretty much trading away $7MM.


If you're correct, aren't you saying that 3- and 6-win players, therefore, cost over $3MM? So, I think we are agreeing that if the Phils were able to get 3 more marginal wins this year @ $2MM/win, not only have they done well financially but, as you pointed out, since this is a team set up to win now, those wins are certainly more valuable to the Phils than the same wins that Costanzo might bring a couple of years down the road. Further, if you apply net present value principles, 6 wins/$12MM now is a better investment than 10.5 wins/$20MM later, thereby justifying, at least in part, any added expense.


The thing is that the Phillies are giving AWAY 10.5 wins for 20MM and receiving 6 wins at 12MM. That's giving away 4.5 wins at a cost of 2MM/win, which is a loss if the free agent market prices a win at 3.3MM/win. A loss of 6MM or so.


JFLNYC wrote:As I said, I think we are agreeing, although one could argue (as Stu has) that, in an otherwise equal trade, wins now are always better than wins later since the latter do not have the NPV of the former.


Well, the NPV thing is a bit messy. I tried to estimate the cost of these contracts without taking growth in salaries into account, in an attempt to correct for NPV. I'm not sure that I would say the NPV of a win now is higher than later, unless you're a team on the playoff bubble like the Phillies are.

MattS
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 3580
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 21:17:00

Postby Bakestar » Thu Nov 08, 2007 20:51:12

Anyone know where to find video of the 2005 NLCS blast off Lidge by Pujols?
Foreskin stupid

Bakestar
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 14709
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 17:57:53
Location: Crane Jackson's Fountain Street Theatre

Postby 1 » Thu Nov 08, 2007 20:58:22

Bakestar wrote:Anyone know where to find video of the 2005 NLCS blast off Lidge by Pujols?


stlcardinals.com i would think

or here
Fine. You wanna act like you're two? I'll act like I'm one.

1
Moderator / BSG MVP
Moderator / BSG MVP
 
Posts: 51703
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 17:55:17
Location: (sending check)

Postby mpmcgraw » Thu Nov 08, 2007 21:20:46

I definitely like this move.

Anytime you can trade a prospect who is terrible and a prospect who can't hit lefties and has no real position for a solid player at a position of need with the potential to perform at a superstar level it is a good trade.

That was uncomfortably long winded.

mpmcgraw
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 3344
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 18:12:34
Location: I think I am Einstein, James Bond, and Batman all rolled into one

Postby cshort » Thu Nov 08, 2007 21:25:22

Assuming the Phillies won't pursue another starter, does this now free up some extra money next year? A free agent starter or closer would likely have cost them $10M+, and Lidge is ~$5.5M. Extra money to sign Rowand or Lowell?
cshort
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 3288
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2007 15:53:58

Postby GMAN » Thu Nov 08, 2007 21:34:29

mpmcgraw wrote:I definitely like this move.

Anytime you can trade a prospect who is terrible and a prospect who can't hit lefties and has no real position for a solid player at a position of need with the potential to perform at a superstar level it is a good trade.

That was uncomfortably long winded.
Which one is the terrible one ? I think Bourn has a chance to be a solid starting cf. He can steal 60 bases and play a very god cf.
GMAN
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 308
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 14:27:03

Postby kenrosenthal » Thu Nov 08, 2007 21:41:58

GMAN wrote:god


i wouldnt go that far

kenrosenthal
Dropped Anchor
Dropped Anchor
 
Posts: 6134
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 18:57:11
Location: On Cole's back, just like the rest of the team

Postby cshort » Thu Nov 08, 2007 21:45:37

I found this in an old thread, don't know if anyone reposted it.

Andre (GA): Any chance the Mets persue Oswalt/Lidge from the Astros?? What would it take assuming they take on those contracts?

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:20 PM ET ) I don't think Oswalt is available at all, and when was the last time Ed Wade traded AWAY a veteran reliever?


Answer: November 7, 2007
cshort
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 3288
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2007 15:53:58

Postby mpmcgraw » Thu Nov 08, 2007 21:48:17

I was exaggerating. He is not terrible, I think he could be servicable as a 5th outfielder, but I think he is far from a solid starting centerfielder for reasons you probably already know by now.

mpmcgraw
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 3344
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 18:12:34
Location: I think I am Einstein, James Bond, and Batman all rolled into one

Postby Goomeister » Thu Nov 08, 2007 21:49:11

I like this trade. Let's hope Lidge is the bridge to the World Series in '08.
"Don't do it for money. Don't do it for fame. You do it because you can't not do it." Barry Manilow

Goomeister
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 750
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 09:41:17
Location: Hagerstown, MD

Postby Bucky » Thu Nov 08, 2007 21:50:05

GMAN wrote:
mpmcgraw wrote:I definitely like this move.

Anytime you can trade a prospect who is terrible and a prospect who can't hit lefties and has no real position for a solid player at a position of need with the potential to perform at a superstar level it is a good trade.

That was uncomfortably long winded.
Which one is the terrible one ? I think Bourn has a chance to be a solid starting cf. He can steal 60 bases and play a very god cf.


he can't steal first

Bucky
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 58017
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2006 19:24:05
Location: You_Still_Have_To_Visit_Us

Postby GMAN » Thu Nov 08, 2007 21:53:42

Bucky wrote:
GMAN wrote:
mpmcgraw wrote:I definitely like this move.

Anytime you can trade a prospect who is terrible and a prospect who can't hit lefties and has no real position for a solid player at a position of need with the potential to perform at a superstar level it is a good trade.

That was uncomfortably long winded.
Which one is the terrible one ? I think Bourn has a chance to be a solid starting cf. He can steal 60 bases and play a very god cf.


he can't steal first
He started to show the ability to work the count before he was hurt and with his speed alone he will hit .270 by accident. If he hits .270 he steals at least 50 bases. He was also the best cf on a team whose cf won a gold glove.
GMAN
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 308
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 14:27:03

Postby BigEd76 » Thu Nov 08, 2007 22:35:34

Lidge article on Phillies.com

"I feel like I'm capable of being a lot better. I'm hoping, and I really believe, that the change of scenery will bring out the best in me."
.
.
"Of course, [the Pujols HR has] always been part of an issue, but for me, I think whether that's the case or not, I still believe a change of scenery is probably good for me. I think Houston in some ways probably became a little stale."
.
.
Lidge claims he's something of a fan already, long having ignored -- but secretly admired -- the conspicuous Philadelphia faithful. Toss in the fact that he's jumping from a struggling Astros club to a rapidly improving Phillies team and there's little reason for him not to be excited.

"I know as a visiting pitcher, when you're warming up there on the mound, you better turn your ears off or you're going to get a mouthful," Lidge said. "But that's what's great about them. I think I kind of like it that way."
.
.
The closer had surgery earlier this month and remains on crutches until the end of this week. But as long as he's healthy come Spring Training -- and Lidge swears he will be -- that might not be the worst thing in the world. It all traces back to that confidence.

"There were times when it was awfully painful, to be totally honest," Lidge said. "And there were other times where it didn't really bother me a lot. It's one of those deals, unfortunately, when it can be in the back of your head even when it's not really bothering you. I was really glad to put it behind me."

BigEd76
You've Got to Be Kidding Me!
You've Got to Be Kidding Me!
 
Posts: 111160
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 18:13:03
Location: 40.155/-74.829

Postby BigEd76 » Thu Nov 08, 2007 22:39:39

Costanzo article on Astros.com

"[Wade] was at a lot of my games at Reading," the 2007 Eastern League All-Star said. "I'm happy that he's [in Houston]."

Paul Ricciarini, Houston's director of player personnel, was thrilled with the acquisition.

"Costanzo was one of the guys we focused on in the deal, among others," Ricciarini said. "In a deal of this magnitude, you're looking for quality and we are certainly excited with what we obtained on all levels. He fills a [left-handed power] void that we currently have in our system. He has a lot of presence about him and an excellent swing. The kid has great physical strength, he hits to all fields and works at his entire game. There's a lot to like about him to be sure."

Ricciarini explained that Houston had their eye on Costanzo back in 2005 when he was still in college. They were on the verge of selecting him in the draft before Philadelphia ultimately beat them to it. Their past scouting and familiarity with him was paramount in his inclusion in the deal.

"We're very comfortable with our track record of scouting him in the past," he said. "That retrospect is what gave us the confidence to ask for certain names and his was among those at the top of the list."

Philadelphia's Minor League director, Steve Noworyta, had mixed feelings about dealing Costanzo.

"Anytime you give up a power-hitting, corner infielder, it's difficult," he said. "In then end, when you get two players who can help the big league club, you can't say no. I think it was a good trade for both sides."

Noworyta was well aware of Costanzo's Philadelphia ties but said he spoke to the youngster and said he's excited.

"It's difficult for him," said Noworyta. "Being a homegrown player, coming up through the system and then reaching the Majors with the Phillies would have been a dream come true. He's sad to go but he's also happy and very excited to be joining the Astros."


...and some Wade comments from another article on Astros.com:

"He's probably got average range, but he catches what he gets to [and has] a well-above average and accurate throwing arm," Wade said. "At best he's an average runner. Big strikeout numbers, he's got holes to close up, but he's got a pure power bat. You've got a guy who hit 27 home runs at Double-A, that's a bat that will play in the big leagues. There are very few of those kind of guys."

BigEd76
You've Got to Be Kidding Me!
You've Got to Be Kidding Me!
 
Posts: 111160
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 18:13:03
Location: 40.155/-74.829

Postby ReadingPhilly » Thu Nov 08, 2007 22:51:28

i've never heard costanzo and excellent swing mentioned in relation to each other

ReadingPhilly
You've Got to Be Kidding Me!
You've Got to Be Kidding Me!
 
Posts: 59729
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2007 15:32:14

Postby Laexile » Thu Nov 08, 2007 22:54:33

ReadingPhilly wrote:i've never heard costanzo and excellent swing mentioned in relation to each other

They just traded for him, so they probably like his swing more than most people.
Laexile
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 3307
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 13:50:23
Location: LA

Postby JFLNYC » Thu Nov 08, 2007 23:02:40

cshort wrote:Assuming the Phillies won't pursue another starter, does this now free up some extra money next year? A free agent starter or closer would likely have cost them $10M+, and Lidge is ~$5.5M. Extra money to sign Rowand or Lowell?


My guess is they'll sign Romero (~$3MM), sign Geoff Jenkins (~$5MM) and try to sign Hiroki Kuroda (~$8MM). That would put the payroll at ~$102MM. I wouldn't hold my breath for a new 3B, esp. Lowell who, if he's not re-signed by the Red Sox, will probably get an overwhelming offer from the Yankees. All the other available 3B (except A-Rod) would require a trade. The Phils didn't have enough tradable assets before the Lidge trade to outbid others for Tejada, Cabrera, etc. They have even less now.
Jamie

"A man who tells lies . . . merely hides the truth. But a man who tells half-lies has forgotten where he put it."

JFLNYC
BSG MVP
BSG MVP
 
Posts: 34321
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 13:16:48
Location: Location, Location!

Postby usctrojans31 » Thu Nov 08, 2007 23:42:32

GMAN wrote:He was also the best cf on a team whose cf won a gold glove.


We're talking about Michael Bourn, not Shane Victorino.

usctrojans31
There's Our Old Friend
There's Our Old Friend
 
Posts: 2190
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 21:22:33

Postby Disco Stu » Fri Nov 09, 2007 01:40:44

GMAN wrote:
Bucky wrote:
GMAN wrote:
mpmcgraw wrote:I definitely like this move.

Anytime you can trade a prospect who is terrible and a prospect who can't hit lefties and has no real position for a solid player at a position of need with the potential to perform at a superstar level it is a good trade.

That was uncomfortably long winded.
Which one is the terrible one ? I think Bourn has a chance to be a solid starting cf. He can steal 60 bases and play a very god cf.


he can't steal first
He started to show the ability to work the count before he was hurt and with his speed alone he will hit .270 by accident. If he hits .270 he steals at least 50 bases. He was also the best cf on a team whose cf won a gold glove.


He is 25 years old and isn't likely to develop any power. For him to have decent value, he'd have to get on base at like a .375 clip and that ain;t likely to happen.
Check The Good Phight, you might learn something.

Disco Stu
Dropped Anchor
Dropped Anchor
 
Posts: 9600
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 19:37:30
Location: Land of the banned

PreviousNext