ekravitz wrote:there are a lot of players that have offseason surgery to clean up or clean out things but come spring training, everything is a-ok. I will not equate this to a Garcia situation, unless of course, we are being duped and he actually had a more serious knee injury

I looked it up and at the time of the surgery it was reported to be "cleaning out loose cartilage."

It seems to me that cartilage repair has become pretty routine nowadays and it's something he sould rcover from quite easily. It's not like a bad shoulder or elbow or something like that.

Plus, he pitched with a bad knee last season. Doesn't it sem likely that that would hurt his performance some? Doesn't it seem likely that he might be better -- even much, much better -- pitching without a hurt knee? It does to me. I'd say it's quite possible that Lidge is really, really good in 2008. He still had a great K rate last season. That's something the Phils really lacked last season.

I think the Baseball Prospectus folks are really missing the boat on this trade and I'm a little surprised by it. Since when are Bourn and Costanzo top prospects? I like Bourn and I think he has a chance to be a decent big leaguer. But if he doesn't get on base enough, he'll be another Willie Tavares and that's not all that valuable.

I really don't see the love for Costanzo. I think there's a chance he becomes a useful big leaguer but he strikes out a lot and he doesn't hit lefties at all. He supposedly can't hit breaking balls or changeups and a lot of big leaguers throw those pitches. And I keep reading from those guys that Costanzo is a good fielder. What are they seeing that I'm missing here?

They slam the trade because they say without Bourn and Costanzo the Phils have no replacement CFer or 3Bman in the future. I guess they aren't thinking of Victorino. Do they know something we don't? Do the Phils plan on playing Vic in RF even if they don't re-up Rowand?

I didn't see Costanzo as the Phils 3Bman in 2009 or whenever they did. I'm not even sure he can play a major league 3B. And as a corner outfielder or DH he doesn't have tremendous value.

And I think the only way Myers goes back to the rotation is to get a "name" closer. I see him being upset if the Phils put him back in the rotation so Romero or "Bad Shoulder" Gordon or someone can close. I think the BP folks sometimes get wrapped up a little too much in all the numbers stuff and future value and see losing guys who the Phils control on the cheap -- no matter if they have big value on the field for the team -- as something really bad.

I think the Phils have a CF solution and can use Werth and spend some money on another outfielder like Jenkins and use Jacobs or T.J. Bohn or someone and have an outfield that won't miss Bourn at all. And I don't see Costanzo as a future 3Bman for this club. They have lots of time to figure out a 3B solution.

I think it was Silver who slammed the trade because the Phils moved too quickly or something. He seems to be advocating the team should have explored Cordero or some other Free Agent. I really don't understand that at all. I would have been kinda upset if the Phils signed some FA for big $$$s and for many years. What should they have waited around for? Lidge's price to go up once Wade saw how much good relief pitchers were actually worth? I don't get it.

I guess Bourn might turn into the next Brett Butler but with actual base stealing skill. And Costanzo might be a fine big league power hitter who finally solves playing 3B. But you can make a case like that for a lot of young players. This was a good trade in my view.

It's quite possible that Lidge will get hurt or stink in 2008. But you can say that about any pitcher. I think there are a lot of indicators that he will be fine -- even better than fine in 2008. Then you might be able to extend him, or even better see one of the young guys like Mathieson or someone step up and look like a closer type guy. Then you get some draft picks and replace Lidge with a cheap guy and you win. They could have gone into the season without Lidge and tried that but that's kinda what they did last year and that trick didn't work too good.

All sane points. The difference between trading for Lidge and signing Cordero could be 3 1st round draft picks (the 2 you get if Lidge leaves and the 1 you would give up if you sign Cordero). Are Bourn and Costanzo really worth 3 1st round draft picks? No way. Not even close.

Trent Steele wrote:All sane points. The difference between trading for Lidge and signing Cordero could be 3 1st round draft picks (the 2 you get if Lidge leaves and the 1 you would give up if you sign Cordero). Are Bourn and Costanzo really worth 3 1st round draft picks? No way. Not even close.

But you also have Cordero for more than one year.

MoBettle wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:All sane points. The difference between trading for Lidge and signing Cordero could be 3 1st round draft picks (the 2 you get if Lidge leaves and the 1 you would give up if you sign Cordero). Are Bourn and Costanzo really worth 3 1st round draft picks? No way. Not even close.

But you also have Cordero for more than one year.

and you're paying him too (something like $10 million for each one).

The Phils could sign a new closer in 2008 (Joe Nathan) for an amount that would roughly be a wash with the Cordero contract when considering the below-Cordero amount they are paying Lidge in 2007. Or, someone like Matheison could have a breakout year and be a $390,000 closer for 2009-2010, thereby saving the Phils tons of money.

Trent Steele wrote:

MoBettle wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:All sane points. The difference between trading for Lidge and signing Cordero could be 3 1st round draft picks (the 2 you get if Lidge leaves and the 1 you would give up if you sign Cordero). Are Bourn and Costanzo really worth 3 1st round draft picks? No way. Not even close.

But you also have Cordero for more than one year.

and you're paying him too (something like $10 million for each one).

The Phils could sign a new closer in 2008 (Joe Nathan) for an amount that would roughly be a wash with the Cordero contract when considering the below-Cordero amount they are paying Lidge in 2007. Or, someone like Matheison could have a breakout year and be a $390,000 closer for 2009-2010, thereby saving the Phils tons of money.

C'mon - Joe Savery is the closer for this org. from 2009 to 2050!

Some of the best closers in baseball started out as really good young set up men (Mariano Rivera types). That would be the best case. Someone comes out blazing and establishes himself as an ace in the setup role. I don't look at Madson that way but Mathieson or Bisenious or someone might do something like that.

smitty wrote:

ekravitz wrote:there are a lot of players that have offseason surgery to clean up or clean out things but come spring training, everything is a-ok. I will not equate this to a Garcia situation, unless of course, we are being duped and he actually had a more serious knee injury

I looked it up and at the time of the surgery it was reported to be "cleaning out loose cartilage."

It seems to me that cartilage repair has become pretty routine nowadays and it's something he sould rcover from quite easily. It's not like a bad shoulder or elbow or something like that.

Plus, he pitched with a bad knee last season. Doesn't it sem likely that that would hurt his performance some? Doesn't it seem likely that he might be better -- even much, much better -- pitching without a hurt knee? It does to me. I'd say it's quite possible that Lidge is really, really good in 2008. He still had a great K rate last season. That's something the Phils really lacked last season.

There's no sign of it that I aware of, but pitching with a bad knee can certainly hurt the shoulder or elbow. I'm crossing my fingers that he stays healthy this year.

smitty wrote:I think the Baseball Prospectus folks are really missing the boat on this trade and I'm a little surprised by it. Since when are Bourn and Costanzo top prospects? I like Bourn and I think he has a chance to be a decent big leaguer. But if he doesn't get on base enough, he'll be another Willie Tavares and that's not all that valuable.

....

I guess Bourn might turn into the next Brett Butler but with actual base stealing skill. And Costanzo might be a fine big league power hitter who finally solves playing 3B. But you can make a case like that for a lot of young players. This was a good trade in my view.

It's quite possible that Lidge will get hurt or stink in 2008. But you can say that about any pitcher. I think there are a lot of indicators that he will be fine -- even better than fine in 2008. Then you might be able to extend him, or even better see one of the young guys like Mathieson or someone step up and look like a closer type guy. Then you get some draft picks and replace Lidge with a cheap guy and you win. They could have gone into the season without Lidge and tried that but that's kinda what they did last year and that trick didn't work too good.

A lot of good points here, and I also think the trade was good, in fact I wish they had been able to make a similar trade in the middle of last season. The only part that bothers me is that this trade doesn't make any sense for the Astros unless they think that Costanzo, Bourn or both can blossom into successful major leaguers. Ed Wade had a pretty good track record on hitting prospects, generally only discarding those who turned out to be no prospects at all. Of course, he was helped by the fact that the Phillies had so few legitimate prospects to begin with, so anyone he discarded had a better than even chance of not panning out. These are two players he knows well however, and apparently sought out. If Smitty thinks he's lonely in regarding Gillick as a pretty sharp guythough, I must be positively hermitical in being concerned about Wade's baseball acumen.

swishnicholson wrote:A lot of good points here, and I also think the trade was good, in fact I wish they had been able to make a similar trade in the middle of last season. The only part that bothers me is that this trade doesn't make any sense for the Astros unless they think that Costanzo, Bourn or both can blossom into successful major leaguers. Ed Wade had a pretty good track record on hitting prospects, generally only discarding those who turned out to be no prospects at all. Of course, he was helped by the fact that the Phillies had so few legitimate prospects to begin with, so anyone he discarded had a better than even chance of not panning out. These are two players he knows well however, and apparently sought out. If Smitty thinks he's lonely in regarding Gillick as a pretty sharp guythough, I must be positively hermitical in being concerned about Wade's baseball acumen.

Although I love the trade for the Phillies, I think it's safe to say that the deal makes sense for Houston (looking at it from their POV). Wade is on record as saying that he loves both Bourn and Costanzo and has all but penciled Bourn in as the starting CF in 2008. Lidge and Bruntlett will easily make under 8 million next year so it's not a salary dump.

swishnicholson wrote:.
. If Smitty thinks he's lonely in regarding Gillick as a pretty sharp guythough, I must be positively hermitical in being concerned about Wade's baseball acumen.

I don't know. Wade did a lot of good things with the Phils. He was very good at putting together 4/5ths of a very fine team. He had some problems finishing though.

His big gambit was locking up Burrell, Lieby, Wolf and Abreu long term. It could have worked out splendidly and if it had, Wade would be talked about as one of the brilliant GMs in baseball. Someone would write a book about him -- "Old Middle Relief Pitcher Ball" or something. And folks would be talking about doing things the Phillies way. But it didn't work out all that great.

Burrell didn't turn out to be an annual MVP candidate like some expected but he was pretty durn good most of the time. Abreu was of course outstanding. But Wolf got hurt and didn't turn into one of the premier lefties in the game and Lieby started out as one of the best catchers in the leauge but injuries and an inconsistent bat hurt him and the team.

Wade had some guys like Utley and Rollins develop pretty nicely but he never was able to get the last few pieces together to complete the picture. He thought David Bell was good. And he loved him some aging middle relief guys. And as a result, the club never made the playoffs and he was fired as he deserved to be. But he wasn't terrible or even close really.

Monkeyboy wrote:
There's no sign of it that I aware of, but pitching with a bad knee can certainly hurt the shoulder or elbow. I'm crossing my fingers that he stays healthy this year.

Excellent point. I'm looking at this from the perspective that he had a hurt knee last season and now it's fixed. My conclusion is that he could be better than last year -- maybe much much better. It's based on this:

1. Pitching with a knee that doesn't hurt is much, much better than pitching with a knee that hurts.

2. Fixing knees with some loose cartilage is pretty easy nowadays.

3. His knee should be pain free this season.

4. So he should pitch much, much better.

The Phils have a scout in the houston area who supposedly watched him at the end of last year and he has pronounce Lidge's arm and stuff as being just fine.

Of course, they scouted Garcia at the end of 2006 and thought he was OK too.

Lidge didn't appear to damage his arm last season pitching with the bad knee but it's easy to hurt a shoulder or an elbow when an important part of your body isn't working right. You compensate for the bad knee by altering your motion and the next thing you know something in the arm goes blooey.

That didn't appear to be the case last season but it's certainly possible he damaged his arm and it just hasn't manifested itself yet. If so, that could be really bad. If Lidge turns into this season's Garcia, then the Phils truly are snakebit I think.

Don McKee ate a donut then wrote in Sunday's paper that the bullpen should be Romero in the 7th, Lidge in the 8th and Myers in the 9th, then the rotation spot can be filled by trading Howard for Santana. :?

smitty wrote:

swishnicholson wrote:.
. If Smitty thinks he's lonely in regarding Gillick as a pretty sharp guythough, I must be positively hermitical in being concerned about Wade's baseball acumen.

I don't know. Wade did a lot of good things with the Phils. He was very good at putting together 4/5ths of a very fine team. He had some problems finishing though.

His big gambit was locking up Burrell, Lieby, Wolf and Abreu long term. It could have worked out splendidly and if it had, Wade would be talked about as one of the brilliant GMs in baseball. Someone would write a book about him -- "Old Middle Relief Pitcher Ball" or something. And folks would be talking about doing things the Phillies way. But it didn't work out all that great.

Burrell didn't turn out to be an annual MVP candidate like some expected but he was pretty durn good most of the time. Abreu was of course outstanding. But Wolf got hurt and didn't turn into one of the premier lefties in the game and Lieby started out as one of the best catchers in the leauge but injuries and an inconsistent bat hurt him and the team.

Wade had some guys like Utley and Rollins develop pretty nicely but he never was able to get the last few pieces together to complete the picture. He thought David Bell was good. And he loved him some aging middle relief guys. And as a result, the club never made the playoffs and he was fired as he deserved to be. But he wasn't terrible or even close really.

We should have made several post-season appearances under Wade. The main problem was deadline deals for injured/bad relievers who cost wins rather than helping team. The second problem was signing over his soul, first-born child, and the team's future to David Bell and allowing him to play injured and to displace Polanco. Wade built better teams at end of off-season than Gillick did. But Gillick helps his team at the deadline and Wade doesn't. That seems to be the big difference.

BigEd76 wrote:Don McKee ate a donut then wrote in Sunday's paper that the bullpen should be Romero in the 7th, Lidge in the 8th and Myers in the 9th, then the rotation spot can be filled by trading Howard for Santana. :?

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why the Philadelphia Inquirer sports section is dying a painful death.

I agree A'Town. Also, in Wade's last season, his bench consisted of Tomas Perez, Endy Chavez and Ramon Martinez. They were his three big pinch hitters. Wade stunk at filling out a team.

Wade refused to ever trade any key hitter or pitcher or his prized prospects, except with Rolen and in 2000 when he was dumping players. Once a player made it into the starting lineup he really only left via free agency. He wouldn't trade his centerfielder for a starting pitcher or even swap rightfielders (e.g. Paul O'Neill for Roberto Kelly). The Phillies had to settle for an overpriced Eric Milton instead of Curt Schilling because Wade decided his package was Silva and Punto. I think Brad Lidge is better than any player Wade ever traded while he was trying to contend.

The good news was that Wade wasn't really going to get burned, but then he wasn't going to pull off a heist. He couldn't really improve the team via a trade. So he resorted to free agency. That worked... as long as he offered Jim Thome $25 million more than the Indians. Wade liked to tinker with the last five players on the roster. He wasn't good at it, but a team doesn't usually win or lose based on those guys. Gillick has done this very well, picking up Werth, Dobbs, Durbin, Romero, and Alfonseca this way last season alone. The only two players Wade ever got who did much were Person and Byrd, and Byrd only really gave him one full season.

Gillick has taken more risks and his big risks have blown up in his face. Granted I didn't like the Freddy Garcia deal but I'd rather have a GM who takes risks than one who doesn't.

smitty wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:
There's no sign of it that I aware of, but pitching with a bad knee can certainly hurt the shoulder or elbow. I'm crossing my fingers that he stays healthy this year.

Excellent point. I'm looking at this from the perspective that he had a hurt knee last season and now it's fixed. My conclusion is that he could be better than last year -- maybe much much better. It's based on this:

1. Pitching with a knee that doesn't hurt is much, much better than pitching with a knee that hurts.

2. Fixing knees with some loose cartilage is pretty easy nowadays.

3. His knee should be pain free this season.

4. So he should pitch much, much better.

The Phils have a scout in the houston area who supposedly watched him at the end of last year and he has pronounce Lidge's arm and stuff as being just fine.
.

I'm feeling pretty much the way way --- I think he'll be OK. I'm just scarred from Garcia last year and from years of relief pitcher failures.

Monkeyboy wrote:
I'm feeling pretty much the way way

come again?

philliesphhan wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:
I'm feeling pretty much the way way

come again?

It's internet typo talk. I understand it because I may lead the league in typos and other errors.

Can diggit?