drsmooth wrote:

JUburton wrote:I'm not sure. The general narrative driven primarily by 538, is that Trump is the slight favorite. It was a pretty good day for him yesterday and if he has a very good day in a week and beats Kasich and Rubio in their home states, their only incentive to stay in is to stay the course with the Romney plan. If they drop and it's Trump/Cruz, then he gains a somewhat decent path to the nomination.

The general narrative has been that drumpf is automatic short of a meteor strike. Virtually no popular media outlet has given any attention to the fussy business of delegate accumulation; 538 has, but has discounted its implications - for reasons I'm not clear about, but which may be obvious in the context of 'horserace reporting' - for a "drumpf is a lock" assertion.

Sorry, I meant what 538 and relatively intelligent outlets/people are saying. I have no idea what the cable news media is saying.

I mean, on their podcast on Monday they said the race is still going but Trump is the favorite. I don't think that's really disputable at this point. I'd expect it to shift more heavily into contested convention territory if Trump has a bad day next Tuesday.

Now I agree with you that there hasn't been a lot of nuance between 'trump is the favorite' and 'a trump nomination is the most likely outcome' which is a more debatable topic.

TenuredVulture wrote:If fracking (thinking specifically of natural gas fracking) reduces the amount of coal we burn, that's pretty much a win. (Though the methane issue is troubling.)

Jesus yes. Fracking has ushered in an era of cheap and clean energy. Win win win.

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

But there aren't as many people hardened against Sanders like they are against Hillary. I know plenty of people who will not vote for her period. I agree with you that it makes no sense to vote for trump or whoever instead of her, yet there are plenty of people who will do just that. While they'll both likely beat whichever clown comes out of the GOP mess, I think she has a much lower ceiling than Sanders.

It may be unfair to her, but I think the years of being treated as a villain has taken a toll on her with Reps and independents.

my FB observations support Monkeyboy's assertions: more than a few BERNIE supporters have pledged to vote for the other side if Bernie is not the guy after Philadelphia. Most because they don't like Hillary , but others because they feel the party is rigging the election for Hillary.

They're babies

Babies with votes.

I will vote for Hillary because not doing so doesn't make sense at all to me. The damage that could be done to the country through the supreme court alone makes that an imperative, imo.

Yes, if your first choice is bernie but your second is trump, you're doing it wrong. Too much is at stake to throw a tantrum because you don't like the Clintons.

TenuredVulture wrote:If fracking (thinking specifically of natural gas fracking) reduces the amount of coal we burn, that's pretty much a win. (Though the methane issue is troubling.)

So what if it causes cancer, the benzene slurry that seeps into the water table gives your tap water a spicy taste

Are the moderators going to speak in Spanish the whole debate?

It's in Miami.

pacino wrote:It's in Miami.

So. I'm not.

Doll Is Mine wrote:

pacino wrote:It's in Miami.

So. I'm not.

Sure you're not a conservative?

They're having too any debates anyway. This is for Florida, not you. They just air it for ratings.it's why I barely watch them.

Saw a poll today that said a third of Sanders supporters won't vote for Clinton. The guy has drawn in independents, it's not surprising they're not loyal democrats.

JUburton wrote: Sorry, I meant what 538 and relatively intelligent outlets/people are saying. I have no idea what the cable news media is saying.

I mean, on their podcast on Monday they said the race is still going but Trump is the favorite. I don't think that's really disputable at this point. I'd expect it to shift more heavily into contested convention territory if Trump has a bad day next Tuesday.

It is disputable, in the sense that the situation is what it is because there's literally no "favorite". And the reasons don't reduce neatly to TV news cycle sound bites. It's "state wins zomg!!!1!" all the way down.

Now I agree with you that there hasn't been a lot of nuance between 'trump is the favorite' and 'a trump nomination is the most likely outcome' which is a more debatable topic.

I agree with you that we agree about this whole disagreeable business

Gimpy wrote:Saw a poll today that said a third of Sanders supporters won't vote for Clinton. The guy has drawn in independents, it's not surprising they're not loyal democrats.

I'd vote for Sanders in a heartbeat. I'd rather gnaw off my right arm than vote for Hillary.

Gimpy wrote:Saw a poll today that said a third of Sanders supporters won't vote for Clinton. The guy has drawn in independents, it's not surprising they're not loyal democrats.

I really have to stifle an urge to seek these people out, and beat them AND their irresponsible parents about the ears with a copy of the Federalist Papers, or something.

drsmooth wrote:

Gimpy wrote:Saw a poll today that said a third of Sanders supporters won't vote for Clinton. The guy has drawn in independents, it's not surprising they're not loyal democrats.

I really have to stifle an urge to seek these people out, and beat them AND their irresponsible parents about the ears with a copy of the Federalist Papers, or something.

They're in this very thread. Trump fans, I guess.

I'm not voting Hillary. I'm not voting Trump either.

So half a vote for Trump.