Kasich winning Ohio may even be in question now. He lived in Michigan and still only managed third.

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

At least white ones.

Black Dems like Bernie. They like HRC more, apparently.

I'd prefer Bernie but I think it's unlikely, even after Michigan. That said, my concern with a Bernie nomination would be whether Blacks like him enough to get out the vote, which I think is going to be crucial.

If we nominate Trump, the Dems are going to have no problem whatsoever with black turnout.

JUburton wrote: 538 still has him just barely on track. Needs 282 by the end of next Tuesday to maintain.

it's a game of inches, and drumpf has to do more than not stumble - and in my opinion, that's his real problem.

Consider that he didn't win a majority in a shithole like MS. that failure alone could cost him the nomination-clinching delegate count. The narrative from most of the happy-yapper media, and even 538, is how he's "winning" everywhere - which is true, in a mostly meaningless sense. To win the nomination, he's not winning enough - even with the stupid skew the Rs have built in to their crummy "process".

Hear a small segment on NPR re Trump. One of his supporters, I think she was from Chester County (gesh), basically claimed that he is a victim. Thinks it is awful how everyone attacks him and Romney is a piece of shit for doing so. Incredible stuff.

drsmooth wrote:

JUburton wrote: 538 still has him just barely on track. Needs 282 by the end of next Tuesday to maintain.

it's a game of inches, and drumpf has to do more than not stumble - and in my opinion, that's his real problem.

Consider that he didn't win a majority in a shithole like MS. that failure alone could cost him the nomination-clinching delegate count. The narrative from most of the happy-yapper media, and even 538, is how he's "winning" everywhere - which is true, in a mostly meaningless sense. To win the nomination, he's not winning enough - even with the stupid skew the Rs have built in to their crummy "process".

Yeah, that's why I think no one is on track after next week.

The narrative will continue to push more and more toward a brokered convention.

pacino wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

At least white ones.

Black Dems like Bernie. They like HRC more, apparently.

I'd prefer Bernie but I think it's unlikely, even after Michigan. That said, my concern with a Bernie nomination would be whether Blacks like him enough to get out the vote, which I think is going to be crucial.

Donald has said he'll get The Blacks (tm) to vote for him. So I'm worried for either of the Democrats!

Valid concern!

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

At least white ones.

Black Dems like Bernie. They like HRC more, apparently.

I'd prefer Bernie but I think it's unlikely, even after Michigan. That said, my concern with a Bernie nomination would be whether Blacks like him enough to get out the vote, which I think is going to be crucial.

My concern with HRC is that whether the young, historically lazy liberal vote will bother to vote for HRC...

jerseyhoya wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

At least white ones.

Black Dems like Bernie. They like HRC more, apparently.

I'd prefer Bernie but I think it's unlikely, even after Michigan. That said, my concern with a Bernie nomination would be whether Blacks like him enough to get out the vote, which I think is going to be crucial.

If we nominate Trump, the Dems are going to have no problem whatsoever with black turnout.

I'd assume Cruz would do almost as poorly? Although Cruz would probably do better with conservative Mexicans and other Latin Americans?

Those are both actual questions...

rather poor choice of words



Duckworth is a double amputee from the war

(tweet was deleted)

heyeaglefn wrote:Kasich winning Ohio may even be in question now. He lived in Michigan and still only managed third.

Happily, drumpf can win OH and still not gain the requisite delegates

If Trump wins Ohio (I don't think he's the favorite) he will have almost certainly also won Florida. If he wins both, the delegate total and the ensuing narrative will make it more likely than not he will reach the threshold.

I think even moreso, that if he wins OH, he probably has done well in MO too and a win there would be another 15-20 delegates (12 WTA plus districts). I don't know how connected OH/FL are, though I see what you mean, and why I already think Trump will win FL. A bad OH showing likely means a bad MO showing...and he can still win FL in that scenario.

SK790 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:If we nominate Trump, the Dems are going to have no problem whatsoever with black turnout.

I'd assume Cruz would do almost as poorly? Although Cruz would probably do better with conservative Mexicans and other Latin Americans?

Those are both actual questions...

Whomever the Dems and GOP nominate, you're probably looking at something like a 90-10 margin among the black vote as the baseline. But with Obama at the top of the ticket, the biggest change in voter behavior was the share of black turnout within the electorate surged, and black voters participated at a higher rate than white voters (which is historically unusual). A lot of people think that will recede without Obama running, but I would guess Trump's open racism would provide a similarly large motivating factor for turnout from the black community. - Decent write up of this issue generally from last year in the world before Trump - http://cookpolitical.com/story/8666

Just throwing some random numbers out there, maybe the margin is 94-6 with Trump and black voters are 14% of the electorate, 90-10 vs. Rubio but 12% of the electorate. Cruz likely to fall somewhere in between on both since he'd probably do less effective outreach than Rubio but is less overtly offensive to minorities than The Donald. But this is all made up so who knows.

The Nightman Cometh wrote:If Trump wins Ohio (I don't think he's the favorite) he will have almost certainly also won Florida. If he wins both, the delegate total and the ensuing narrative will make it more likely than not he will reach the threshold.

that is the conventional thinking, yes. So your point is?

drsmooth wrote:

JUburton wrote: 538 still has him just barely on track. Needs 282 by the end of next Tuesday to maintain.

it's a game of inches, and drumpf has to do more than not stumble - and in my opinion, that's his real problem.

Consider that he didn't win a majority in a shithole like MS. that failure alone could cost him the nomination-clinching delegate count. The narrative from most of the happy-yapper media, and even 538, is how he's "winning" everywhere - which is true, in a mostly meaningless sense. To win the nomination, he's not winning enough - even with the stupid skew the Rs have built in to their crummy "process".

I do think you're discounting two related problems:

1. Trump may have a hard path to acquiring the needed delegates to win the nomination, BUT all of his opponents have even harder paths for doing same, and, more to the point, even their paths for overtaking Trump are getting to be pretty difficult.

2. "Reasonable" alternatives - Rubio and Kasich - are really losing out here. Kasich might win Ohio, Rubio seems all but cooked - even if they wind up a "close second" to Trump - itself getting harder and harder to see - Rubio having not won Florida will hurt him badly, which leaves only Kasich. If he comes up short in Ohio, he's cooked.

The odds of a Trump nomination or a brokered convention, when taken together, are approaching 1. The odds that Trump is the delegate leader going into Cleveland are pretty damn high at this point. I know many (most?) of the party bigwigs will want to deny Trump the nomination... but they may see it as unwise.

SK790 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

At least white ones.

Black Dems like Bernie. They like HRC more, apparently.

I'd prefer Bernie but I think it's unlikely, even after Michigan. That said, my concern with a Bernie nomination would be whether Blacks like him enough to get out the vote, which I think is going to be crucial.

My concern with HRC is that whether the young, historically lazy liberal vote will bother to vote for HRC...

Agreed.

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

At least white ones.

Black Dems like Bernie. They like HRC more, apparently.

I'd prefer Bernie but I think it's unlikely, even after Michigan. That said, my concern with a Bernie nomination would be whether Blacks like him enough to get out the vote, which I think is going to be crucial.

My concern with HRC is that whether the young, historically lazy liberal vote will bother to vote for HRC...

Agreed.

Well, Bernie ate chicken and waffles with Killer Mike so I feel like he'll do better with the black vote. #blackfriend #analysis

jerseyhoya wrote:

SK790 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:If we nominate Trump, the Dems are going to have no problem whatsoever with black turnout.

I'd assume Cruz would do almost as poorly? Although Cruz would probably do better with conservative Mexicans and other Latin Americans?

Those are both actual questions...

Whomever the Dems and GOP nominate, you're probably looking at something like a 90-10 margin among the black vote as the baseline. But with Obama at the top of the ticket, the biggest change in voter behavior was the share of black turnout within the electorate surged, and black voters participated at a higher rate than white voters (which is historically unusual). A lot of people think that will recede without Obama running, but I would guess Trump's open racism would provide a similarly large motivating factor for turnout from the black community. - Decent write up of this issue generally from last year in the world before Trump - http://cookpolitical.com/story/8666

Just throwing some random numbers out there, maybe the margin is 94-6 with Trump and black voters are 14% of the electorate, 90-10 vs. Rubio but 12% of the electorate. Cruz likely to fall somewhere in between on both since he'd probably do less effective outreach than Rubio but is less overtly offensive to minorities than The Donald. But this is all made up so who knows.

Thank you for the input. I figured the overall black vote would go down, but I honestly have no clue how much. This election is extremely fascinating, if nothing else.

SK790 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

SK790 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:If we nominate Trump, the Dems are going to have no problem whatsoever with black turnout.

I'd assume Cruz would do almost as poorly? Although Cruz would probably do better with conservative Mexicans and other Latin Americans?

Those are both actual questions...

Whomever the Dems and GOP nominate, you're probably looking at something like a 90-10 margin among the black vote as the baseline. But with Obama at the top of the ticket, the biggest change in voter behavior was the share of black turnout within the electorate surged, and black voters participated at a higher rate than white voters (which is historically unusual). A lot of people think that will recede without Obama running, but I would guess Trump's open racism would provide a similarly large motivating factor for turnout from the black community. - Decent write up of this issue generally from last year in the world before Trump - http://cookpolitical.com/story/8666

Just throwing some random numbers out there, maybe the margin is 94-6 with Trump and black voters are 14% of the electorate, 90-10 vs. Rubio but 12% of the electorate. Cruz likely to fall somewhere in between on both since he'd probably do less effective outreach than Rubio but is less overtly offensive to minorities than The Donald. But this is all made up so who knows.

Thank you for the input. I figured the overall black vote would go down, but I honestly have no clue how much. This election is extremely fascinating, if nothing else.

this is a fun rudimentary tool

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... -election/

mozartpc27 wrote:I do think you're discounting two related problems:

1. Trump may have a hard path to acquiring the needed delegates to win the nomination, BUT all of his opponents have even harder paths for doing same, and, more to the point, even their paths for overtaking Trump are getting to be pretty difficult.

2. "Reasonable" alternatives - Rubio and Kasich - are really losing out here. Kasich might win Ohio, Rubio seems all but cooked - even if they wind up a "close second" to Trump - itself getting harder and harder to see - Rubio having not won Florida will hurt him badly, which leaves only Kasich. If he comes up short in Ohio, he's cooked.

The odds of a Trump nomination or a brokered convention, when taken together, are approaching 1.

I think you're making mistaken assumptions about what I'm thinking. And what I'm thinking is that drumpf's path to aggregating the necessary delegates to win the nomination before Cleveland is much more fraught than is popularly believed. Nothing else. Who, really, gives a shit about Cruz, or Kasich? The main concern should be that the delegate chase DOES get to be between drumpf any one opponent. That's the worst near-term development, and unfortunately probably the most likely, particularly if Kasich evaporates as Rubio appears to be doing.