Trump wins HI, Cruz a bit behind then Rubio and Kasich a distant 3rd/4th.

Rubio continues to perform really pathetically. Wonder if he'll even bother to stay in long enough to get embarrassed in FL or bolt before.

Bernie continues to do far better than the polls in the Midwest and Plains. I've noted a few times that he did very well in OK, KS, and MN(beat polls by 15+%, which is why I had a hunch he'd do well today). Looks like that trend will continue through the Rust Belt, as well. We'll see what happens in the closed primaries, as HRC tends to win the Dems, whereas Bernie heavily wins the independents. The good news for Bernie, is that Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Indiana are all open primaries. He'll probably have a harder time in closer primary states like Pennsylvania, New York, etc...

Here's some good articles about last night:

538 piece on how Bernie winning in MI is the biggest upset ever for a presidential primary

Another good 538 piece on how Rubio never really had a base; was everyone's second choice

Donald Trump rules the day from LIBERAL Vox.com

And just because I can:



Eat shit, you Reagan-humping asshole.

pacino wrote:Ran into a complete moron on twitter. He'd rather have Trump in the WH than Clinton if Bernie doesn't win.

Enjoy living in Brooklyn though, asshole. Keep singing in your band. Your life may not change but lots of others will be affected.

This is my concern with Hillary. People don't like her. It has nothing to do with the manufactured scandals. She just isn't well liked. If she was, people would cast off the scandals, but instead many of them stick in the absence of evidence. My concern is that these people are going to switch to Trump or stay home, giving the election to whatever sociopath emerges from the right.

Bernie isn't going to win, but the more people get to know him, the more they seem to like him. And I know Clinton's policies are very similar to his (except for some VERY important differences), but she just isn't well liked and that does matter. Part of politics, right or wrong, is getting people to like and agree with you. Even when she's right, and she right more often than not, people just reflexively go against her. This stuff matters, a lot.

In short, I'm very concerned that her likability or lack thereof is going to cause the supreme court to be filled with right wing activists for the next generation. I really wish a few other candidates had stepped forward instead of deferring to her.

SK790 wrote:Eat shit, you Reagan-humping asshole.

Ohh, I may steal this. It would be so useful on so many occasions.

Go for it!

Monkeyboy wrote:

pacino wrote:Ran into a complete moron on twitter. He'd rather have Trump in the WH than Clinton if Bernie doesn't win.

Enjoy living in Brooklyn though, asshole. Keep singing in your band. Your life may not change but lots of others will be affected.

This is my concern with Hillary. People don't like her. It has nothing to do with the manufactured scandals. She just isn't well liked. If she was, people would cast off the scandals, but instead many of them stick in the absence of evidence. My concern is that these people are going to switch to Trump or stay home, giving the election to whatever sociopath emerges from the right.

Bernie isn't going to win, but the more people get to know him, the more they seem to like him. And I know Clinton's policies are very similar to his (except for some VERY important differences), but she just isn't well liked and that does matter. Part of politics, right or wrong, is getting people to like and agree with you. Even when she's right, and she right more often than not, people just reflexively go against her. This stuff matters, a lot.

In short, I'm very concerned that her likability or lack thereof is going to cause the supreme court to be filled with right wing activists for the next generation. I really wish a few other candidates had stepped forward instead of deferring to her.

I agree. I said as much in my defense of Bernie's electability a few days back. Bernie is, by far the most, likable candidate left on both sides(okay, Kasich comes close but does he really have any chance?[hold yr Bernie isn't going to win joke until the end plz!]). He'll draw ire from people who are to the right economically, but those people aren't voting for Hillary either. Black people aren't voting for him now, true, but are they going to vote for a Republican come the general? Highly unlikely. The 2 front runners on the Republican side are 2 of the most hated politicians(or in Donald's case, mediocre businessman) that I can ever remember. How unlikable is Ted Cruz? Joe Biden's got the jokes:

Joe fucking Biden wrote:“Look, I told Barack if you really, really want to remake the Supreme Court, nominate Cruz,” Mr. Biden said at the annual Gridiron Dinner, according to excerpts from his prepared speech released by his office. “Before you know it, you’ll have eight vacancies.”

Sure, that's Joe Biden, he makes jokes and whatnot about Republicans all the time. He's Joe Biden. How about some members of his own party:

Lindsey Graham wrote:Last week, Graham said picking between Trump and Cruz was like having to choose "death by being shot or poisoning," and he said the party would be better off if it picked "somebody out of the phone book."

Bob Dole wrote:"He doesn't have any friends in Congress. He called the leader of the Republicans [Mitch McConnell] a liar on the Senate floor. If you want to call somebody a liar in the Senate, you go to their office—you don't go on the Senate floor and make it public."

From anonymous source who has worked with the Bush's for decades:

"I don't know anyone who had a decent relationship with Cruz." And when Bush became president, his top campaign aides agreed Cruz should not be offered a job in the White House. "No one wanted to work with him," this source remembers. "George W. Bush couldn't stand the guy." This person adds, "It's a real quandary for Bush campaign people: Trump versus Cruz, who to vote for? And it would be a big quandary even if it's Cruz versus Hillary Clinton. That's how much they cannot stand him."

W kept it simple, as W does:

George W. Bush wrote:"I just don't like the guy,"

mozartpc27 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

Bucky wrote:i thought you were moving back to philly

I was. But we bought a place in New Hope then built a place down here and I've been spending all my time here.

New Hope is awesome, lucky you - if you stay there!

yea man, plus you'll be my sort-of neighbor.

Monkeyboy wrote:My concern is that these people are going to switch to Trump or stay home, giving the election to whatever sociopath emerges from the right.

drumpf pollutes our political process comprehensively. Whomever wins the office had better begin campaigning the day after the election, and campaign well, or almost certainly be a one-termer. We Americans are shitting on our political system, and seem bent on promptly eating it.

drumpf is a wretched blot on humankind. A coarse, cheap, sullen, filthy, stupid embarrassment to the American experiment. My fellow Americans, you disgust me.

Happily, my crude model tells me last night drumpf did not advance the totals he needs to win the delegates that would clinch him the nomination before Cleveland. It's a near thing, and some odd things may still need to happen, but he's not winning sufficiently yet.

Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

drsmooth wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:My concern is that these people are going to switch to Trump or stay home, giving the election to whatever sociopath emerges from the right.

drumpf pollutes our political process comprehensively. Whomever wins the office had better begin campaigning the day after the election, and campaign well, or almost certainly be a one-termer. We Americans are shitting on our political system, and seem bent on promptly eating it.

drumpf is a wretched blot on humankind. A coarse, cheap, sullen, filthy, stupid embarrassment to the American experiment. My fellow Americans, you disgust me.

Happily, my crude model tells me last night drumpf did not advance the totals he needs to win the delegates that would clinch him the nomination before Cleveland. It's a near thing, and some odd things may still need to happen, but he's not winning sufficiently yet.

538 still has him just barely on track. Needs 282 by the end of next Tuesday to maintain.

Say he gets
FL - 99
OH - 0
Northern Marianas (what the hell is northern marianas?) - 0
IL - 15 WTA + 27/54 districts (latter a guess but I assume he does better in district count than overall vote count) - 42
MO - 25 (district proportion...i think Cruz takes this state in the midwest wall)
NC - 23 (proportional)

That's 199 (pretend he hits his 10 target before next tuesday). He really needs FL, OH, and be the overall winner in IL and MO. Tall order. All of a sudden he's under and who knows what the hell happens.

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

SK790 wrote:

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

she has more votes than him. that usually decides who is more well-liked.

SK790 wrote:

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

At least white ones.

pacino wrote:

SK790 wrote:

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

she has more votes than him. that usually decides who is more well-liked.

It's possible to like them both. More people like Bernie and don't like HRC than like HRC and not Bernie.

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

At least white ones.

Black Dems like Bernie. They like HRC more, apparently.

Hard to believe a bunch of elderly southern black women are going to end up picking the next president

Slovenia has started to ask for EU visas at its Serbian border, who will then do the same on its border with Macedonia and Bulgaria, effectively choking off the Balkan route for refugees into EU.

The EU and Turkey are finalizing a weird one for one deal with migrants, with Turkey agreeing to take migrants from Greece (and basically putting them at the back of the line to start over) in exchange for allowing an equal number into the EU. it's to combat smuggling and the free flow and start a regulation of resettlement. Who knows if it will be enforced.

Refugees in Turkey are not being cared for properly, anyway.

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's likable enough.

Warszawa wrote:Hard to believe a bunch of elderly southern black women are going to end up picking the next president

the base of the Democractic party usually gets a good say in its nominee. they did it last time, they'll do it again. darn black women.

SK790 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

At least white ones.

Black Dems like Bernie. They like HRC more, apparently.

I'd prefer Bernie but I think it's unlikely, even after Michigan. That said, my concern with a Bernie nomination would be whether Blacks like him enough to get out the vote, which I think is going to be crucial.

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

SK790 wrote:

pacino wrote:Luckily, most Democratic voters actually like both of them. she's likable and so is he.

She's not well liked in general. She does well with Dems, Bernie is overwhelmingly liked by Dems.

At least white ones.

Black Dems like Bernie. They like HRC more, apparently.

I'd prefer Bernie but I think it's unlikely, even after Michigan. That said, my concern with a Bernie nomination would be whether Blacks like him enough to get out the vote, which I think is going to be crucial.

Donald has said he'll get The Blacks (tm) to vote for him. So I'm worried for either of the Democrats!