JUburton wrote:trump certainly does have a path to the nomination. it would be foolish to count him out at this point. it would also be foolish to proclaim him the nominee after he ran well in iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina.

pacino wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:Here's the thing--Cruz can't win the nomination--if he can't win in places like SC, he can't win enough states to get the nomination particularly when much of the party leadership hates his guts and would rather see Trump win the nomination. But he's not going to drop out anytime soon. I don't think it's really likely Cruz makes a deal with Rubio to drop out in exchange for veep or something. Furthermore, even if Cruz does drop out, I don't think more than half his supporters go to Rubio.

The surprising thing about Trump is the people who say they are supporting him in the polls are showing up to vote. If I'm not mistake, SC is a closed primary state, and if that's correct, that means Trump's support is coming from registered Republicans, not angry low information independents or mischievous Democrats.

However, I don't think Trump can win a majority of delegates. So get your popcorn ready.

i believe i saw a CNN breakdown which split up republicans and independents, so I think it's partially open; however, Trump was fairly even :

76% republicans
Trump 32%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 23%
Bush 8%
Carson 6%
Kasich 6%

22% independents
Trump 33%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 17%
Kasich 13%
Carson 10%
Bush 7%


I wonder if Republican voters realize that Kasich is an extremely conservative guy? I guess expanding medicaid was the be all, end all. They see that and move on. He's pretty much boilerplate modern conservative with everything else. The rest of the public is generally for expanding medicaid.

fwiw, the breakdown was also 96% white. the 4% of other is too small for them to get accurate data on who went for who. the party has a problem there in the general election.

TomatoPie wrote:Can't quite believe in the politics thread I came to say "Doc is right"

SK790 wrote:

JUburton wrote:trump certainly does have a path to the nomination. it would be foolish to count him out at this point. it would also be foolish to proclaim him the nominee after he ran well in iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina.

He's the only one with an actual path to nomination right now (as Calvin says, he's ahead in the polls [that are mostly old and don't take into account the loss of Jeb plus whoever else], but still...).

The rest of them have hypothetical paths based on others dropping out. I agree with doc that the base will eventually come around Rubio, but I'm hoping Kasich holds on as long as possible so Trump can rack up the delegates.

pacino wrote:exit polls are showing he has a wide base of support (as wide as it can be in the Republican party, anyway) amongst all income and education levels, fwiw

pacino wrote:exit polls are showing he has a wide base of support (as wide as it can be in the Republican party, anyway) amongst all income and education levels, fwiw

Trump now has a higher unfavorable rating than any candidate at any time during all of these previous election cycles, and that conclusion takes into account the fact that unfavorable ratings tend to rise in the heat of a general election campaign as the barbs, negative ads and heightened partisanship are taken to their highest levels.

CalvinBall wrote:He's repeated the same general insults over and over. What more proof do you need?

Werthless wrote:Calvinball, using data, here is your answer for why most people refuse to believe Trump has a shot to win:

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-m ... image.aspx

Trump now has a higher unfavorable rating than any candidate at any time during all of these previous election cycles, and that conclusion takes into account the fact that unfavorable ratings tend to rise in the heat of a general election campaign as the barbs, negative ads and heightened partisanship are taken to their highest levels.

CalvinBall wrote:Rubio has to win Florida. If he doesn't 99 delegates go to trump. There aren't a ton of recent polls but trump was in the 40s and rubio in the teens.