I wish jh would still post in the politics threads. Need insight from someone with inside knowledge on how the Republican primary will shake out.

IF - and I am not at all convinced this will finally be the case - but IF Trump maintains his lead and finishes first in SC, I assume Cruz will finish 2nd or 3rd in that scenario - if Bush is not the other person in the top 3, I expect he'll drop.

Having said that, if no establishment candidate wins SC - and it is looking that way, but I wouldn't rule out a Rubio win there just yet - each of the three remaining establishment candidates could have a plausible narrative for continuing, with Bush's being the weakest (I have the most money, bitches (but it's running out quick)). Rubio can claim he is best positioned to broaden the base, which the GOP badly needs to do, and Kasich can make a plausible claim for being the most broadly acceptable/electable candidate, who can (not for nothing) deliver Ohio.

I expect Bush will drop out and endorse Kasich if he finishes outside the top 3. If he doesn't (possible, but unlikely), or if he isn't in a conceding mood, preferring instead to stick it out to Super Tuesday - maybe Kasich would drop if he isn't in the top 3 (almost certain) - he does seem like he might be a "for the good of the party" kind of guy, not to mention he doesn't have a lot of money.

But I am honestly stumped about who is going to pull this out at this point. My instinct still says Rubio, he is the logical choice, but if everybody stays in and ESPECIALLY if it's Trump-Cruz and no establishment candidate wins 1st or 2nd in SC... oof.

Trump gets the most votes. I don't know anything beyond that.

The primary schedule may be the biggest thing working against Sanders. HRC is doing well in the plains and southeast, which have a lot of primaries early. Sanders does well in the northeast, Great Lakes, and West, which have very few early primaries. Lol at those Vermont polls.

Fwiw he thinks rubio takes third in SC and goes on to win the nomination. he also hopes that.

'you saw what ISIS did in san bernardino and what they inspired in paris'

reverse that one there, marco.

Not posting in the politics thread has been good, but I'm moving tomorrow and had a few cocktails packing/watching The Challenge and college hoops and the CNN town hall so a longish list seems worthwhile.

First, this is good stuff - https://vine.co/v/ivw1WwiDJje

Second before going into the GOP nomination stuff, a few words about the Supreme Court fight. There are few things more certain in life than political process fights devolving into hypocrisy. I think there's something approaching a 100% chance that if RBG died in February 2008 that the Dem Senate would not have confirmed a Bush nominee to her spot. And we would have screamed our heads off about how unfaithful to the constitution Dem sens were being, and maybe they'd have paid a bit of a price at the polls (Ted Stevens might have won and maybe Obamacare would've never happened, who knows), but the Democrats would have been right to stand their ground given the consequences for the party and the progressive movement for shifting the court if Bush had replaced a liberal stalwart. The GOP is completely right to eat shit on this because the stakes are so high. McConnell could've handled it better without saying no hearings/no votes - I think we'd get 51+ no votes for any non GOP nominee (Kirk/Collins/maybe Murkowski) - but it's vital that the line is held. So I think it will be. If resulting unpopularity costs a senate seat or even the White House, that would suck, but allowing Obama to appoint someone who makes the court 5-4 or 6-3 lib on every contentious issue isn't something a conservative GOP senate can just roll over on. It's going to be good times 8 years from now when Stephen Breyer dies and President Rubio breaks his pledge to defer a last year nomination to the next president, and we get to hear how much of a hypocrite Rubio is.

Third, the Dem nomination battle (I might be avoiding talking about the GOP). Sanders is doing much better than I ever thought, and I was probably too low on his chances 6 months ago or whatever, but he's still going to lose. The Super Tuesday polls today from PPP show he's just not cutting into her support with black voters, and maybe he can make it interesting enough that if she does get indicted he could win outright rather than having Biden parachute in, but in the end barring something unforeseen Hillary will be the nominee. I would be enjoying her struggles against Bernie and her clear weaknesses as a general election candidate if I felt more confident that we weren't going to nominate Trump (or Cruz). As it stands, I am kind of rooting for her just in case Trump is the nominee so we're more likely to have a normal person in charge of the country for the next four years.

Fourth, the GOP race has not gone super well. I was obviously wrong about the seriousness of Donald J. Trump as a candidate. I am sorry. Most waking moments for the past few months has been spent dwelling on the contest. I dreamed the other day that Nikki Haley endorsed Jeb Bush and I woke up in a cold sweat. It probably hasn't been healthy. I continue to completely not understand the Trump phenomenon and not get how these people are willing to drum Rubio out of contention for the Gang of 8, but are willing to forgive Trump's past stances on illegal immigration, abortion, gun control, raising taxes and his current stances on Bush lying the country into Iraq and how he would have prevented 9/11 and universal healthcare and dozens of other things that should be anathema to True Conservatives. Werthless can attest that I've spilled many words about this in angst filled emails to the high school crew. Depending on the day I'd say I'm either 50/50 Trump is gonna win or 90/10 we're going to end up prevailing over evil. The Rubio setback in NH has delayed the very, very necessary culling of the herd by a week and a half, but god willing it seems like the good people of South Carolina led by their lovely governor and popular senator and poorly coiffed representative might just get Marco to like 22% of the vote Saturday. If he can push into 2nd or a good 3rd and then Jeb might finally die and the R2R anvil can be severed from Rubio's ankle and things will be good (there are plenty of polls showing Marco at like 14% in SC and close to Jeb and I'm ignoring them for mental health reasons). The one big fly in the ointment even if Jeb bows out is Kasich seems determined to hang around until Michigan or even Ohio, and steal like 5-10% of the vote along the way (almost entirely from Rubio), for no good fucking reason other than perhaps a desire to go down in history as being even more responsible for the GOP nominating Donald J. Trump than Jeb Bush. I've been losing my mind the past few months at the party's lack of responsiveness to the Trump threat. There should be a $100 million Super PAC slaughtering him on the airwaves holding his ceiling down. The non-contenders should have long ago taken a page from Scott Walker and recognized the futility of all of this and bowed out. Jeb is the biggest culprit by a mile, and his fucking entitled bullshit shining through on the trail right now about Rubio is fascinating. Obviously my beloved fat governor taking Rubio down a few pegs in NH was painful, but hopefully in the long run it doesn't cost him the nomination and it proves educational to him in how to run for president. Better to get it out of the way in February than October. And then Kasich seems to think finishing 2nd in NH and appealing to independents in primaries is something that justifies him staying in the race until Michigan and Ohio, which is like Rudy's Florida plan except a lot dumber. God I hope his money dries up soon. If pressed I'd make Rubio a slightly better than even favorite to be the nominee, with Trump around 25%, Cruz at 15%, Jeb & Kasich at 2% each, and Willard or the sainted Paul Ryan at a few percent each to emerge as a result of a weird deal at the convention.

Fifth, this isn't anything particularly insightful, but this could sort itself out with a good solution relatively quickly...Rubio finishes 2nd in SC and Jeb drops out and Romney endorses Rubio this weekend in Nevada to get the Mormons out for him and Rubio rides a very strong 2nd in NV into a slew of 2nds ahead of Cruz and maybe a 1st or two on 3/1 into Kasich and Cruz dropping and winning Florida and Ohio on 3/15 we could very plausibly be four weeks away from having a clear nominee. Rubio should destroy Trump in a 1 on 1. It's getting there that's the problem. Ignoring Carson, if no one drops out between here and 3/1, and more than one of Jeb/Kasich/Rubio is in the race on 3/15, we're very likely to see Trump nominated. I think The Establishment is going to come down on Jeb! and hopefully Kasich like a ton of bricks to avoid that (if SC goes OK), so hopefully this doesn't happen. I guess I haven't really said anything about Rubio in his favor to this point, but I guess it's clear that I'm totally drinking the Kool Aid and think he'd be a fantastic nominee and a very good president. It seems the party is mostly ready to climb on board with this with him making up for NH with a strong performance Saturday night and a nice job in the town hall this evening and/or out of complete desperation. Just need to get the voters on board and Jeb and Kasich out of the race.

That's more than enough drunken babbling for one evening.

jerseyhoya wrote:
Second before going into the GOP nomination stuff, a few words about the Supreme Court fight. There are few things more certain in life than political process fights devolving into hypocrisy. I think there's something approaching a 100% chance that if RBG died in February 2008 that the Dem Senate would not have confirmed a Bush nominee to her spot. And we would have screamed our heads off about how unfaithful to the constitution Dem sens were being, and maybe they'd have paid a bit of a price at the polls (Ted Stevens might have won and maybe Obamacare would've never happened, who knows), but the Democrats would have been right to stand their ground given the consequences for the party and the progressive movement for shifting the court if Bush had replaced a liberal stalwart. .

I find it absolutely impossible that we would have had something similar to what the GOP is doing. The immediate and complete push to stop the nominee before Scalia was even cold would not have happened if the situation was reversed. And I don't believe for a second that it would have ever gone anything like this. I'm sure some dems would have tried to stop a nomination, but they would have been in the minority and it would have gone nowhere. One party still follows historical precedent for the most part and it isn't the GOP.

I think GOP supporters are going to say that dems would have acted the same because they have to justify trashing the constitution for political ends, but it couldn't be father from the truth.

JH, I find it hard to believe you really think Rubio would be a good nominee and president. He seems to know nothing about most of the issues that matter and he looks like a deer in the headlights every time he's forced to think on his feet. He would be a horrible nominee and a potentially dangerous president. I would honestly rather have Trump than Rubio because I think Trump would at least fall back on advisors. He would say dumb stuff and make a mess of things, but no worse than Rubio and his clueless ramblings and inability to think under pressure. And I'm not saying Rubio looks awful because I'm voting dem. I genuinely think he's awful on the merits and without bias. I'm just waiting for him to soil himself on stage if someone asks him a question that he hasn't prepared for.

I think what's distressing to me is that the more clueless the individual looks, the better they are doing in the GOP race. The GOP electorate seems to be going out of their way to vote for the worst possible people. It's discouraging as an american. We need two viable parties and the GOP nominees are a complete joke -- weak and out of touch with reality. The fact that establishment republicans are hoping for Rubio, a guy who knows little and has trouble expressing simple ideas without practicing them in front of a mirror first, speaks volumes about where the GOP is right now.

2am popin!

i, of course, disagree with almost everything. thanks for the read though, jh.

yeah, always a good read. that last paragraph makes me reminisce about that fugees post back in '09 or so where they put forth the scenario where the mutts picked up one game a week and end up winning the division.

pacino wrote:Nate Silver gives you #bern fans the way to his nomination

the BernieBro in me wants to get excited, but the rational kinda stats knowing guy in me wants to drink away the depressing likelihood that Sanders will not continue to perform well above the polls.

i think my dream scenario on tuesday is NH part two and bush/kasich keep going.

nightmare is (besides a rubio/cruz win) is a narrow trump victory with a huge rubio showing and kasich/bush under 7% each and both dropping out.

I want to see Trump lose it at the brokered Convention when Jeb and Cruz finally throw their support to Rube.

VP John Kasich as gravy

Breaking: Pope pops a cap in Turnip's ass (basically calls him an asshole - way to go, Pope!)

Rubio will never, ever be POTUS.

Jerz, it may be politically expedient for Rs to stonewall any nomination, but there is approximately zero chance dems would ever have preemptively suggested POTUS should not even bring a nomination -because precedent is light to nonexistent for EITHER faction doing so.

Plus doing so is just a stupid thing a reflexive, no-other-tactics-in-his-bag obstructionist like McConnell would do. Even Grassley realizes what a bonehead move that was.

Nice to hear from you though

If it were reversed, with a R President and D Senate and it was RBG who was no longer on the court, I would be livid at any D Sen who voted for confirmation. I would hope that bastard was primaried to death, and I would spend my own money to help make it happen. Fuck that even. If the Dems held only 41 seats, I'd expect every fucking last one of them to filibuster whatever evil bastard the R President nominated. Do you realize how dangerous Alito is? You surely don't want to see his like again with a lifetime appointment.

so basically unless the D's go big in the senate races in november we're gonna have only 8 judges for at least the next 5 years (or until another dies)

car bomb killed 28 in Ankara, Turkey yesterday, they blamed the YPG so Turkey hit PKK after that. no one has actually brought forth evidence of who it was and no one has taken credit.

YPG is our main ally in Syria with the Kurds. PKK is the organization we've (US/Turkey) called terrorists. They (Turkey) are trying to paint the two as one and the same, so this would help them accomplish that if it actually was a guy from the YPG also aligned with the PKK. even if it wasn't, they'll use their propaganda arms within the country to convince the public it was.

oh look, a media ban

heard about 10 minutes of the Rubio portion of the townhall last night and the questions didnt seem like real questions so I moved on. One guy was like 'the economy is terrible, it seems like no one is doing well, regulations are high, and the fed is terrible, what are you gonna do about it?'

Who watches these things?