When Jerz is right about things, he's really right, & I'm pretty sure he basically called Rubio's arc long ago.

CalvinBall wrote:Another narrow victory for Clinton. Barely anyone caucesed. The number below the percent is people right?

Dems report state/county convention delegates won for the caucuses--NOT votes.

drsmooth wrote:When Jerz is right about things, he's really right, & I'm pretty sure he basically called Rubio's arc long ago.

Wasn't it painfully obvious? Iowa is one of the whitest states in the nation and has a strange voting structure. New Hampshire is nearly as white and rural too. Rubio is going to do really well on Tuesday and ultimately win the nomination. I wish betting were legal in this stupid country because I'd have bet a nice amount of money on Rubio as nominee at 3 or 3.5 to 1 and felt great about it.

drsmooth wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:

drsmooth wrote:So Jeb?'s out

Disappointing from my perspective but good for GOP and totally unsurprising.

Hmmm. dunno how "good for GOP" it is. Thinking maybe we need a GOP dissolution countdown clock

Rubio is inevitable. The question is how much damage will be done to the GOP brand and Rubio between now and the moment he becomes the nominee.

JUburton wrote: Wasn't it painfully obvious?

Hmmm. Not so sure it was that obvious at the time he posted his ideas about it. In fact, I'm not certain (& too lazy to research) that he actually predicted Nominee Rubio; but he did lay out a clear case for the guy.

Unfortunately when you listen to Rubio talk you discover he's merely a slicker, more tightly programmed, more telegenically appealing, more committedly far right Turnip

JUburton wrote:I wish betting were legal in this stupid country because I'd have bet a nice amount of money on Rubio as nominee at 3 or 3.5 to 1 and felt great about it.

I just said the same thing to my wife. Could make a lot of money betting Rubio right now.

drsmooth wrote:

JUburton wrote: Wasn't it painfully obvious?

Hmmm. Not so sure it was that obvious at the time he posted his ideas about it. In fact, I'm not certain (& too lazy to research) that he actually predicted Nominee Rubio; but he did lay out a clear case for the guy.

Unfortunately when you listen to Rubio talk you discover he's merely a slicker, more tightly programmed, more telegenically appealing, more committedly far right Turnip

I think the 'smart' money has been on Rubio from the start. Though Trump gets the coverage and the primary structure is appealing to him and Cruz, ultimately it'll shake out for the establishment.

I'd love to be wrong and Trump take it and Hillary beat him by 150 EV.

JUburton wrote:

JUburton wrote:Gut feeling, Jeb drop out after today? I'm going yes, unfortunately.

yep. rubio gotta be feeling great right now.

I mean he hasn't won one state as of yet

Over a fifth of people voted for him, so he's a lock

pacino wrote:

JUburton wrote:

JUburton wrote:Gut feeling, Jeb drop out after today? I'm going yes, unfortunately.

yep. rubio gotta be feeling great right now.

I mean he hasn't won one state as of yet

Over a fifth of people voted for him, so he's a lock

That's shortsighted though. States have been IA, NH, SC...not exactly indicative of the republican base at large. There's a reason he's just behind Trump in Vegas (and was the betting favorite after Iowa).

I will say that it does not bode well for the republican party in the short or long term that about half of the voters in these states so far have voted for trump/cruz.

JUburton wrote:

pacino wrote:

JUburton wrote:

JUburton wrote:Gut feeling, Jeb drop out after today? I'm going yes, unfortunately.

yep. rubio gotta be feeling great right now.

I mean he hasn't won one state as of yet

Over a fifth of people voted for him, so he's a lock

That's shortsighted though. States have been IA, NH, SC...not exactly indicative of the republican base at large. There's a reason he's just behind Trump in Vegas (and was the betting favorite after Iowa).

The base is white and conservative. They've voted Trump and cruz. I Mena I guess the narrative can be pushed hard enough that some voters feel they need to back Rubio, but they really haven't as of yet.

The multiple candidate race is making it more difficult to gauge.

JUburton wrote:

pacino wrote:

JUburton wrote:

JUburton wrote:Gut feeling, Jeb drop out after today? I'm going yes, unfortunately.

yep. rubio gotta be feeling great right now.

I mean he hasn't won one state as of yet

Over a fifth of people voted for him, so he's a lock

That's shortsighted though. States have been IA, NH, SC...not exactly indicative of the republican base at large. There's a reason he's just behind Trump in Vegas (and was the betting favorite after Iowa).

Yeah the real number is Katich + Bush + Rubio. Everyone voting for those three is a likely voter and a likely Rubio voter now that Bush is out and when Kasich is out.

State by state, adding Rubio, Bush, Katich, you get:

Iowa:

Rubio 27.8
Cruz 27.6
Trump 24.3

New Hampshire:

Rubio 37.4
Trump 35.3
Cruz 11.7

South Carolina:

Rubio 38
Trump 32.5
Cruz 22.3

You can try to argue that Bush/Kasich voters will go for Trump or Cruz, but you'd be wrong.

I guess I just find it hilarious that the guy keeps staying on top and so many keep writing him off. Maybe Republican voters like Trump.

pacino wrote:

JUburton wrote:

pacino wrote:

JUburton wrote:

JUburton wrote:Gut feeling, Jeb drop out after today? I'm going yes, unfortunately.

yep. rubio gotta be feeling great right now.

I mean he hasn't won one state as of yet

Over a fifth of people voted for him, so he's a lock

That's shortsighted though. States have been IA, NH, SC...not exactly indicative of the republican base at large. There's a reason he's just behind Trump in Vegas (and was the betting favorite after Iowa).

The base is white and conservative. They've voted Trump and cruz. I Mena I guess the narrative can be pushed hard enough that some voters feel they need to back Rubio, but they really haven't as of yet.

The multiple candidate race is making it more difficult to gauge.

I'm with you in that I do think that people are underestimating the Trump/Cruz mentality but even if at a completely boiled down level it becomes 32% Trump, 27% Cruz...which is a vast majority of Republican voters, it still leaves the door open for a 41% Rubio vote with no Jeb/Kasich/Carson. Things definitely get weird with pluralities. We should know more after Tuesday...

pacino wrote:I guess I just find it hilarious that the guy keeps staying on top and so many keep writing him off. Maybe Republican voters like Trump.

He is consistently polling around a third of the Republican electorate. A higher percentage makes it clear they will never vote for him even if he is the Republican nominee.

Republican voters - most of them - don't like Turnip

Here's the thing: Rs are turning out in major numbers in these primary contests. Dems are ho-humming it, coasting into the postseason. Not good.

drsmooth wrote:Republican voters - most of them - don't like Turnip

Here's the thing: Rs are turning out in major numbers in these primary contests. Dems are ho-humming it, coasting into the postseason. Not good.

Tends to happen after a two-term presidency.

Also, democratic voters have been ho humming it for 6 years. Want it handed to them.

pacino wrote:

drsmooth wrote:Republican voters - most of them - don't like Turnip

Here's the thing: Rs are turning out in major numbers in these primary contests. Dems are ho-humming it, coasting into the postseason. Not good.

Tends to happen after a two-term presidency.

Also, democratic voters have been ho humming it for 6 years. Want it handed to them.

JUST LIKE WELFARE AMIRITE

Carson, running for the Presidency of a country in an alternative universe, pretty much planning to hang in there because, well, let's see.... why shouldn'the cut another book deal? Yeah that's it

You'd think Rubio or Cruz won SC the way the establishment and the pundits are downplaying Trump's victory. His second in a row by the way.

That's troubling to me because that's not democracy. The American people voted for Trump. It counts. And it should be treated like any other candidate winning.