mozartpc27 wrote:

drsmooth wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:

drsmooth wrote:So Jeb?'s out

Disappointing from my perspective but good for GOP and totally unsurprising.

Hmmm. dunno how "good for GOP" it is. Thinking maybe we need a GOP dissolution countdown clock

Rubio is inevitable. The question is how much damage will be done to the GOP brand and Rubio between now and the moment he becomes the nominee.

mozartpc27 wrote:

JUburton wrote:

pacino wrote:

JUburton wrote:

JUburton wrote:Gut feeling, Jeb drop out after today? I'm going yes, unfortunately.

yep. rubio gotta be feeling great right now.

I mean he hasn't won one state as of yet

Over a fifth of people voted for him, so he's a lock

That's shortsighted though. States have been IA, NH, SC...not exactly indicative of the republican base at large. There's a reason he's just behind Trump in Vegas (and was the betting favorite after Iowa).

Yeah the real number is Katich + Bush + Rubio. Everyone voting for those three is a likely voter and a likely Rubio voter now that Bush is out and when Kasich is out.

State by state, adding Rubio, Bush, Katich, you get:

Iowa:

Rubio 27.8
Cruz 27.6
Trump 24.3

New Hampshire:

Rubio 37.4
Trump 35.3
Cruz 11.7

South Carolina:

Rubio 38
Trump 32.5
Cruz 22.3

You can try to argue that Bush/Kasich voters will go for Trump or Cruz, but you'd be wrong.

SK790 wrote:Jeb! suspended his campaign...

Doll Is Mine wrote:You'd think Rubio or Cruz won SC the way the establishment and the pundits are downplaying Trump's victory. His second in a row by the way.

That's troubling to me because that's not democracy. The American people voted for Trump. It counts. And it should be treated like any other candidate winning.

CalvinBall wrote:Rubio squeaks by those places and that is assuming he gets 100 percent of the voters from bush and kasich. Seems like a pretty big leap to make. Trump is clearly the frontrunner at this point.

NATE SILVER 5:35 PM
While Clinton has won the first two caucuses in the Democratic race — while losing New Hampshire, the only primary — it’s possible that Bernie Sanders will win every state caucus from here on out.

Here’s why I say that. The remaining Democratic states to hold caucuses are: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, Washington and Wyoming. Other than Hawaii — where I’m not going to pretend we have any earthly idea what’s going to happen — those are a bunch of really white states that otherwise look favorable for Sanders and which he could win even if he slightly trails Clinton nationally.

Clinton is probably favored in the territorial caucuses in American Samoa, Guam and the Virgin Islands, however, as territorial caucuses tend to heavily favor “establishment” candidates.

drsmooth wrote:When Jerz is right about things, he's really right, & I'm pretty sure he basically called Rubio's arc long ago.

drsmooth wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Rubio squeaks by those places and that is assuming he gets 100 percent of the voters from bush and kasich. Seems like a pretty big leap to make. Trump is clearly the frontrunner at this point.

Calvin, most R voters find Turnip revolting. People who cast votes for him are missing teeth, have carnal relations with their pets, and are concerned that moose limbs are gonna invade their doublewide.

That's why he wins 30-35% and can't push the crowd to his left out. Conversely, none of that crowd are different enough from one another, & 2 are too well funded, to consolidate v the racist creep who's daily blighting their entire party's "brand". The Rs have little real reason to remain a party. You can be certain that what Turnip is "leading" is no party.

For anyone who continues to insist that extreme wealth concentration has no adverse social correlates, I give you the R nomination campaign. Your R "winner" can accumulate delegates merely by continuing to win his significant, but limited, pluralities. You're gonna have to find a way to dump him at your convention.

drsmooth wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Rubio squeaks by those places and that is assuming he gets 100 percent of the voters from bush and kasich. Seems like a pretty big leap to make. Trump is clearly the frontrunner at this point.

Calvin, most R voters find Turnip revolting. People who cast votes for him are missing teeth, have carnal relations with their pets, and are concerned that moose limbs are gonna invade their doublewide.

That's why he wins 30-35% and can't push the crowd to his left out. Conversely, none of that crowd are different enough from one another, & 2 are too well funded, to consolidate v the racist creep who's daily blighting their entire party's "brand". The Rs have little real reason to remain a party. You can be certain that what Turnip is "leading" is no party.

For anyone who continues to insist that extreme wealth concentration has no adverse social correlates, I give you the R nomination campaign. Your R "winner" can accumulate delegates merely by continuing to win his significant, but limited, pluralities. You're gonna have to find a way to dump him at your convention.