Rubio is basically Dan Quayle. A first term senator who folds under pressure but who Republicans think will appeal to young people because he's young and handsome. They tried it with Quayle, they tried it with Palin and now they're trying it with Rubio. It doesn't work. Look at the Republicans who have become president: Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr, and to a lesser extent Bush Jr. They were all old and experienced. They were John Kasich. Kasich is a middle aged governor of a large swing state, and a conservative who isn't a whack job. He's Ronald Reagan. He's perfect for the Republicans. The Republican establishment should have united behind him months ago, instead they treated Kasich like an annoyance and united behind Poochie. And nobody likes Poochie.

Wow, that's honestly the first pitch, and a very reasonable one at that, ive read for Kasich.

Rubio is young... i guess attractive next to the other guys on stage but still has a 70 year olds hair style and has minimal to no charisma... charisma and likability sell... if he had that it factor, he'd be well out in front... sad thing is the only one with any it factor in this election is Sanders, that's why he's had the success he's had... Trump is appealing to those who are sick and tired of politics as usual, sick enough of it to not really care about the absurdity of much of what's he's saying and promosing

ashton wrote:Rubio is basically Dan Quayle. A first term senator who folds under pressure but who Republicans think will appeal to young people because he's young and handsome. They tried it with Quayle, they tried it with Palin and now they're trying it with Rubio. It doesn't work. Look at the Republicans who have become president: Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr, and to a lesser extent Bush Jr. They were all old and experienced. They were John Kasich. Kasich is a middle aged governor of a large swing state, and a conservative who isn't a whack job. He's Ronald Reagan. He's perfect for the Republicans. The Republican establishment should have united behind him months ago, instead they treated Kasich like an annoyance and united behind Poochie. And nobody likes Poochie.

I have used the Quayle analogy too for Rubio. Both are bright guys who hit most of the right notes on policy but who lacks charisma and debate skills.

Rubio, though, is Latino. That is magic for a party which has worked so hard in the past to exclude anyone who isn't a direct Mayflower descendant.

I also agree completely that Kasich is the adult candidate. If Rubio gets the nomination as I expect, Kasich is the perfect VP choice because you have the two essential battleground states on the ticket.

fwiw, Kasich did the 'defund Planned Parenthood despite no evidence' thing

The overseas betting lines on who wins the GOP nomination, updated February 22
Trump 10/11
Rubio 6/5
Cruz 14/1
Kasich 25/1
Carson 150/1

The stupid money is on Trump

pacino wrote:fwiw, Kasich did the 'defund Planned Parenthood despite no evidence' thing

yeah, fuck this guy.

Turnip needs 1,200 some delegates to win the R nomination. Let's assume he wins all the winner-take-all states. Let's assume he wins 50% of the vote in all other states EXCEPT those displayed below:



These are the just-about-a-dozen biggest states where delegates are awarded proportionally unless the winner wins the majority of the state's delegates (plus 2 of the Winner Take All states - I was too lazy to delete them from the list). Results are based on Turnip's best or most recent polling in the displayed states. Some states don't have much to go on so I used his average of the other states in some cases.

With these results, all the delegates from the winner-take-all and the convention states, and 50% of delegates in all other states, Turnip collects - 1,227 delegates. he needs another 10 or so.

There are plenty of problems with this back-of-the-envelope set of calculations. Have at it

SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE????

Bucky wrote:SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE????

of course Mr. Scarborough

pacino wrote:fwiw, Kasich did the 'defund Planned Parenthood despite no evidence' thing

and fracked the hell out his own state.

another anecdotal, purely from my vantage point observation is that of all the R candidates, the only with a committed fanbase are Trump & Carson. So if Kasich & Carson bow out, leaving T, C, & R, it will be interesting (in a train wreck sort of way) to see where their votes go. Does anybody think that C or R will drop out prior to the convention??

i want to go on record saying calling trump turnip is not funny at all.

Bucky wrote:another anecdotal, purely from my vantage point observation is that of all the R candidates, the only with a committed fanbase are Trump & Carson. So if Kasich & Carson bow out, leaving T, C, & R, it will be interesting (in a train wreck sort of way) to see where their votes go. Does anybody think that C or R will drop out prior to the convention??

I doubt the big 3 drop out. Trump will be leading, Cruz has too much ego to drop out, and Rubio will be doing whatever his programmers/handlers tell him to do. I mentioned it earlier, but I think Carson's votes will go to Trump. I can't see his votes going to Cruz after the Cruz/Carson argument.

I've been guessing Rubio but now I think it will be Trump with Rubio as VP (with Christie as a darkhorse attack dog VP choice)

I was wondering why someone would call him turnip.

Monkeyboy wrote:

Bucky wrote:another anecdotal, purely from my vantage point observation is that of all the R candidates, the only with a committed fanbase are Trump & Carson. So if Kasich & Carson bow out, leaving T, C, & R, it will be interesting (in a train wreck sort of way) to see where their votes go. Does anybody think that C or R will drop out prior to the convention??

I doubt the big 3 drop out. Trump will be leading, Cruz has too much ego to drop out, and Rubio will be doing whatever his programmers/handlers tell him to do. I mentioned it earlier, but I think Carson's votes will go to Trump. I can't see his votes going to Cruz after the Cruz/Carson argument.

I've been guessing Rubio but now I think it will be Trump with Rubio as VP (with Christie as a darkhorse attack dog VP choice)

Rubio wants to be president so he will never go on a Trump ticket. Neither will Christie.

CalvinBall wrote:i want to go on record saying calling trump turnip is not funny at all.

Sorry Calvin. "pigassignorantnationalembarrassment" is just too long for me to type out every time he comes up.

Plus it's not meant to amuse you - it's meant to demean him. He is ridiculous, so I ridicule him.

Monkeyboy wrote:
I've been guessing Rubio but now I think it will be Trump with Rubio as VP (with Christie as a darkhorse attack dog VP choice)

You're welcome to think that, but that's never happening, for too many reasons to list. "It doesn't make any sense" is the main one. Help me - spell out why you think it makes any sense.

multiple explosions killed at least 30 south of Damascus, ISIL took credit

Monkeyboy wrote:

pacino wrote:fwiw, Kasich did the 'defund Planned Parenthood despite no evidence' thing

and fracked the hell out his own state.

What a crazy political environment we have when this guy is the moderate candidate...