The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby WhiteyFan » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:15:10

PSUPhilliesPhan wrote:A guy that interests me is Doug Fister. If he was a free agent last year he would've gotten 5/100+. Doubt he's tendered by the Nationals. After a disastrous year he might look for a one year show me deal. Offer him 1/15 and if he does well trade him at the deadline or get a comp pick at the end of the year if doesn't resign. Samardzija is another guy I'd do this for but he might be tendered. Maybe even offer 1/20 to convince them to do a one year deal with a rebuilding team.


Pitchers are unlikely to come to our bandbox for a show-me season. Probably have better luck drawing a hitter for this. Ian Desmond maybe?
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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby phorever » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:53:46

ReadingPhilly wrote:
PSUPhilliesPhan wrote:
phillychuck wrote:Do we lose a pick if we sign Heyward?

2nd rounder, but #43 overall, right?

Not sure he's worth the money plus the pick.


Yes and the allotment for #43ish pick which would hurt just as much.


can make up for that by skimming on 1.1


if we keep 1.1 and the rule 5 and int. signing spots, 43ish isn't a big deal.

y'all just about have my mind changed on heyward. the defense will decline eventually, but probably not till post-30. he really is much younger than most elite fa's.
but, bidding will be insane, and he could well have the nice warm fuzzy wfc feeling for the cards....
so... gotta be creative:
how about a ridiculous $35 or $40 million a year for 4 years with a player option for the next one or two so he has the chance to choose the best way to cash in and screw the phils by deserting if good or locking in an overpay if bad after the non-option years? justifiable if (big, big if) you think the phils have enough cheap young talent already in the system (or coming via the 2016 draft/ internat signing season) that heyward is all that's needed to put them into the playoffs in 2017 and deeper and deeper into the playoffs in 2018 and 2019.
... but not enough young talent to achieve the same without him or someone who will need an even more risky (e.g. older star, signing the decline years) contract. if the talent is there and cheap, we easily can put the equivalent of the lee+howard or hamels+halladay contracts into one guy and still have the equivalent left over for another big fa signing or two, or to use for locking up the home-grown young talent long term.
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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby lethal » Mon Oct 05, 2015 20:38:05

PSUPhilliesPhan wrote:A guy that interests me is Doug Fister. If he was a free agent last year he would've gotten 5/100+. Doubt he's tendered by the Nationals. After a disastrous year he might look for a one year show me deal. Offer him 1/15 and if he does well trade him at the deadline or get a comp pick at the end of the year if doesn't resign. Samardzija is another guy I'd do this for but he might be tendered. Maybe even offer 1/20 to convince them to do a one year deal with a rebuilding team.


Both of those guys are going to be given qualifying offers, no question about that.

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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby Ace Rothstein » Mon Oct 05, 2015 20:41:33

not a fan of giving up a top 45ish pick for a 1 yr rental

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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby lethal » Mon Oct 05, 2015 20:45:22

Ace Rothstein wrote:not a fan of giving up a top 45ish pick for a 1 yr rental


You get it back the following year unless the guy just really tanks.

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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby Bucky » Mon Oct 05, 2015 20:46:04

or we finish with at top 5 record (which is happening)

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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby phillychuck » Mon Oct 05, 2015 20:52:21

Heyward for 4 yrs, $45M plus player options?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/2 ... ngs-5.html
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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby phillychuck » Mon Oct 05, 2015 21:29:07

Not sure Fister gets a Q-offer.
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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby The Dude » Mon Oct 05, 2015 21:43:59

phillychuck wrote:Heyward for 4 yrs, $45M plus player options?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/2 ... ngs-5.html


That blurb mentions $180 minutes lion over a long contract
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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby Stay_Disappointed » Mon Oct 05, 2015 21:56:37

WhiteyFan wrote:
PSUPhilliesPhan wrote:A guy that interests me is Doug Fister. If he was a free agent last year he would've gotten 5/100+. Doubt he's tendered by the Nationals. After a disastrous year he might look for a one year show me deal. Offer him 1/15 and if he does well trade him at the deadline or get a comp pick at the end of the year if doesn't resign. Samardzija is another guy I'd do this for but he might be tendered. Maybe even offer 1/20 to convince them to do a one year deal with a rebuilding team.


Pitchers are unlikely to come to our bandbox for a show-me season. Probably have better luck drawing a hitter for this. Ian Desmond maybe?


Is CBP still considered a bandbox?
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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby heyeaglefn » Mon Oct 05, 2015 22:32:04

phillychuck wrote:Heyward for 4 yrs, $45M plus player options?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/2 ... ngs-5.html

Why would he pass up an almost 200 million contract potentially if someone overpays?

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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby CFP » Mon Oct 05, 2015 23:12:28


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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby BigEd76 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 23:18:42

hahaha....looks like a Kyle Mooney segment

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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby phorever » Tue Oct 06, 2015 03:52:12

phillychuck wrote:Heyward for 4 yrs, $45M plus player options?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/2 ... ngs-5.html


so, 8 years, total of $180 mil highend estimate there. that's $22.5 mil/yr, which is indeed $45 mil/yr if compressed into 4. but if that writer's guess is right, "just" $30-35 mil/yr for 3 or 4 years plus one or two player option years at a somewhat lower $25-30 mil/yr should be enough. that leaves plenty still in the bank for taking over scherzer's contract when the nats hold their fire sale.
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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby thephan » Tue Oct 06, 2015 09:19:27

1. I am not sure if I would touch Fister. Sure the Nats want to show that they really did a smart thing with their 4 Aces implementation, but his season was pretty ugly with his move to the pen, so aside from wanting to be arrogant, Fister is done is NatsTown and is damaged goods at this point IMO. Lets the Jays take the risk.

2. Why not look at Jordan Zimmerman if you are looking for Nats cast offs. The Nats have treated him rather poorly, and he is going to move. He could be that top of the rotation shield at a fair price.

3. Speaking of Price, why not? Sure the guy is going to make bank, but someone is going to pay him and play him. Why not us? I know that is extremely unlikely, but he is on record of digging cheese steaks.

4. Did someone say Ian Desmond? He would drive you guys insane. Does anyone really want more free swingers? He tweeted when he got 3 walks on August 30: https://twitter.com/idesmond20/status/638097323399217152 Image

Lowest SLG, second lowes OPS, and tied his lowest OPS+ of his career. He did hit 19 HRs, but his defense was horrible (there was an early season written calling his a "special kind of disaster) with 27 errors to Galvis' uncharacteristic 17. He had 187 strikeouts in 2015, up 4 from 2014. I guess this is a strong PASS from me.

I feel like the Nats field scout, but it is what it is.
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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby phorever » Tue Oct 06, 2015 09:43:26

as a team, the phis were worse this year than last in b-r's war counting stats.
however, a big part of that comes from the best of this year's players getting much less playing time than the best of last year's gang. like last year, i've created a league table of b-r value stats converted into rates-per-650 pa.

last year the top 5 phils in "pure offense" (environment corrected, baserunning included, but no positional adjustments) rates were
rollins (ranked 97th of 443 mlb players with 100+ pa), utley 112th, byrd 132nd, revere 150th, and ruiz 166th.
those were the only ones above the median on the list.
this year again just 5 guys above the median, but they are further above:
altherr 26th, blanco 39th, franco 49th, herrera 138th, and c.hernandez 174th. (all out of 445 players)

last year those over the median in overall war rate were
chooch (68th, war650= 4.67), rollins (88th, 4.16 ), nieves (121st, 3.55), utley (124th, 3.52), and byrd (167th, 2.65)
this year, it's
altherr (15th, 6.86), herrera (62nd, 4.60), blanco (102nd, 3.74), franco (125th, 3.30), and rupp (201st, 2.17 )
[yes, bwar and fwar both hate franco's defense, and cesar's to a lesser extent, despite using different metrics]
meanwhile chooch, jrol, chase, and byrd fell to 392nd, 357th, 294th, and 236th.

conclusion: youth = good. (or relative youth, in the case of byrd vs blanco)

here's hoping the youth movement continues to look somewhere in the neighborhood of this good while playing full seasons over the next few years.
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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby pacino » Tue Oct 06, 2015 09:44:00

Jonah Keri discusses Eickhoff:
When noncontending teams trade away veterans for future help at the deadline, short-term results normally get even worse. Not so for the Phillies, who went a miserable 29-62 in the first half, only to rally for a respectable 34-37 mark in the second half. For that they can thank a range of factors, including some natural regression toward the mean and some addition-by-subtraction from the jettisoning of struggling vets like Chase Utley. However, the biggest surprise came after they traded staff ace Cole Hamels. The Phillies got six players in return for Hamels and reliever Jake Diekman — and one of those six players has topped Hamels’s post-trade contributions by himself.

By Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Replacement, rookie Jerad Eickhoff has delivered more value in eight starts for the Phillies than Hamels has in 12 with the Rangers. With Philadelphia, the 6-foot-4, 240-pound right-hander has fired 51 innings, striking out 49 batters while allowing just 40 hits, 13 walks, and five home runs to go with a 2.65 ERA. Plus, his numbers in his final four starts were borderline illegal: 28 innings and 33 strikeouts, with just 17 hits and seven walks allowed, and an 0.96 ERA.

It’s tough to know if those results might carry over to next season, or if they’re just the result of a random hot streak. A 15th-round pick by the Rangers four years ago, Eickhoff has never been regarded as an elite prospect, and he failed to make Baseball America’s top-10 list for Texas in 2015. Still, this year’s finishing kick has been tantalizing: Although Eickhoff’s fastball only checks in around 92 mph, his secondary stuff has dazzled, with opponents batting just .102 against his curveball and .174 against his slider. For a team in the midst of a total teardown and rebuild, Eickhoff and fellow youngster Aaron Nola have started to raise some hope for an eventual pitching-led revival in Philly.

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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby WhiteyFan » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:16:13

thephan wrote:4. Did someone say Ian Desmond? He would drive you guys insane. Does anyone really want more free swingers?
Lowest SLG, second lowes OPS, and tied his lowest OPS+ of his career. He did hit 19 HRs, but his defense was horrible (there was an early season written calling his a "special kind of disaster) with 27 errors to Galvis' uncharacteristic 17. He had 187 strikeouts in 2015, up 4 from 2014. I guess this is a strong PASS from me.


I have zero interest in Desmond as a player. Just pointing to him as an offensive player who might be willing to take a one-year show-me contract. JP wont be ready to start next year anyway. If Desmond does well, we flip him or get an extra draft pick. If he sucks, oh well. Rather play a lottery ticket like Desmond than watch another year of Galveees.
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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby pacino » Tue Oct 06, 2015 14:36:56

never forget
Image
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Re: The future is Nola-nger so far away: Phillies thoughts

Postby wwry » Tue Oct 06, 2015 14:41:31

someone photoshop a big fat hog waiting by his side
ImageImageImageImage

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