Feel like they'd just go out and sign one of the big names instead.

dajafi wrote:If the Cubs (or Dodgers, or Red Sox, or Cardinals) sent two of their top MLB-ready prospects for Hamels, and the Phils bought Castillo and a second-tier FA pitcher with the money saved, I think that would be a really solid return that would speed the rebuild. Particularly considering the downside risk that they hold onto him, and he gets hurt or just starts to decline.

hamels projects to a 3.5-4.0 win pitcher (bwar) in 2017 (with aging/injury factored in). 4 wins would be worth his salary at THIS year's prices, so he's a good bet to be worth his salary that year, meaning that it will be hard acquire less expensive wins via free agency. prospects good enough to turn that break-even into a win probably require paying some of his contract, which is money for nothing, which is back to break-even. only a win if prospects are safer than aging ace pitchers. i don't think they are.

ReadingPhilly wrote:Feel like they'd just go out and sign one of the big names instead.

They could trade for Hamels and get someone like Lester/Scherzer. They have the money and the prospects to do it.

Jimbo wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:Feel like they'd just go out and sign one of the big names instead.

They could trade for Hamels and get someone like Lester/Scherzer. They have the money and the prospects to do it.

Just don't see them trading any of their offense for something available for just money.

Can't wait to see how much Scherzer gets. He is good but not going to be worth it.

Jimbo wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:Feel like they'd just go out and sign one of the big names instead.

They could trade for Hamels and get someone like Lester/Scherzer. They have the money and the prospects to do it.

Or they could keep all their prospects and sign both of them.

WilliamC wrote:Can't wait to see how much Scherzer gets. He is good but not going to be worth it.

I'd love to see the results of pitchers that signed 5 year 100 million + and how often they are worth that money.

ReadingPhilly wrote:

Jimbo wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:Feel like they'd just go out and sign one of the big names instead.

They could trade for Hamels and get someone like Lester/Scherzer. They have the money and the prospects to do it.

Just don't see them trading any of their offense for something available for just money.

I agree. Maybe such a trade would happen after the free agent signings shake out. I think that a large number of teams (ie. every large market team) are going to be bidding on these couple SPs, and we can maybe reach a deal with teams that came up empty.

ReadingPhilly wrote:

Jimbo wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:Feel like they'd just go out and sign one of the big names instead.

They could trade for Hamels and get someone like Lester/Scherzer. They have the money and the prospects to do it.

Just don't see them trading any of their offense for something available for just money.

Thing is though, they have like four starting-caliber guys for two middle infield spots. They're gonna have to resolve that somehow and there seems to be a growing opinion recently that they accumulated this stockpile to eventually try to land an ace via trade.

Amaro wants Bryant, Edwards and Soler.

When Lester and Scherzer sign for a combined $425M with Boston and NYY, Hamels will look more attractive to teams like Chicago, Detroit, LAD, LAA, TOR, etc. Who knows, maybe even STL.

Never know I guess. The other part of that is the NTC Hamels has.

Werthless wrote:When Lester and Scherzer sign for a combined $425M with Boston and NYY, Hamels will look more attractive to teams like Chicago, Detroit, LAD, LAA, TOR, etc. Who knows, maybe even STL.

I'd be shocked if either one got 200 million. The only pitcher to do that is Kershaw, and he is 4 years younger and better.

I just think that the offseason is shaping up where there are a bunch of teams that said at the deadline "I don't need to trade my prospects for a SP, I can just buy Lester or Scherzer this offseason and save my prospects!" Every team cannot adopt that strategy.

ReadingPhilly wrote:Never know I guess. The other part of that is the NTC Hamels has.

True. Cubs are on his no-trade, but there was a suggestion on MLBTR today that said that Hamels indicated back before he signed his extension in 2012 that he'd be willing to go to the Cubs.

Scherzer 7/$200MM with NYY
Lester 7/$190MM with BOS

Hamels' 4/$90 provides a lot of excess value (both on a per year discount, and on the risk due to contract length). If an elite prospects is worth $30-40MM, Hamels is worth it to a team that is contending now that is on a certain place on the win curve.

LAD would have Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu. No Haren, no Beckett. If they sign Scherzer instead of NYY, then perhaps NYY would be interested in Hamels.

Lester is going to 31 in January, can't see him getting a 7 year deal worth that money, but I guess we will see. Red Sox were trying to get away from deals like that.

They could get a James Shields or Iwakuma for a shorter deal.

Hamels has to submit a new set of teams every year for his NTC, right? Does anyone know when that usually happens?

My bet is Lester does a Hamels contract to stay. Scherzer, no. He is breaking a bank.

to stay with the As? dont think they give out big contracts