Grotewold wrote:I understand, and it wasn't any one thing. (Although the Brown loss was particularly awful timing). I'm just saying, even you and Trent picked them for 80 and 86 wins. If they end up with 70 (or fewer), I'd say it was more a case of misfortune, on balance, than you and everyone else being way way off base.

Time for some ribs

im real excited about this

slugsrbad wrote:The dick punch was losing Revere. He was hitting well and doing things on the base. To jeff or whoever syndor is, saying that Mayberry is better is asinine.

192 players have 300 or more PA this year. Revere's 151st in OPS. He was 22/30 stealing bases (T-12th in SB, T-5th in CS), which is 73%, just above breakeven point. He grounded into 10 double plays. I still don't trust defensive stats, but he fails the eyeball test in CF, and I don't know if any metrics have him above average. Yes, he hit for a high average for two months, but this isn't 1978 - we know more about offense than to say "yay, .300".

If people want to focus on June/July as they project his future, that's cool. He was a good offensive player, and will be as long as he maintains that .365 AVG and .400 BABIP. But, overall this year, he was easily replaceable. Mayberry's not a CF, either, but he's at least as effective at the plate.

JUburton wrote:

Grotewold wrote:I understand, and it wasn't any one thing. (Although the Brown loss was particularly awful timing). I'm just saying, even you and Trent picked them for 80 and 86 wins. If they end up with 70 (or fewer), I'd say it was more a case of misfortune, on balance, than you and everyone else being way way off base.

Time for some ribs

im real excited about this

Nice! Stop by if you can, we're usually under the tent in one of the corners. I'm a cross between Zack Morris and Ellen Degeneres

Grotewold wrote:

JUburton wrote:

Grotewold wrote:I understand, and it wasn't any one thing. (Although the Brown loss was particularly awful timing). I'm just saying, even you and Trent picked them for 80 and 86 wins. If they end up with 70 (or fewer), I'd say it was more a case of misfortune, on balance, than you and everyone else being way way off base.

Time for some ribs

im real excited about this

Nice! Stop by if you can, we're usually under the tent in one of the corners. I'm a cross between Zack Morris and Ellen Degeneres

I will look for the lesbian with the giant telephone.

Wow. I don't think the difference between about 100 runs is bad luck.

Grotewold wrote:
Even if you're right about Mayberry and Ruf -- you're not -- it still depletes depth. And yeah Brown missed 10 games and we lost nine of them. Anyone with even a shred of objectivity here would admit that was a real dick punch

Please try and make a case that Ruf has not been better than Howard this year. I'd be very curious to learn how replacing a .784 OPS with a .917 OPS was so difficult.

I suppose as a warm up act you can tell me a guy who was .OPS'ing less than .700 for the year was so debilitating.Nevermind, I'll save you the time, I'd rather have Revere in there than Mayberry. But it's VERY close and they haven't played enough games yet for it to have added up to a win yet of difference.

Bottom line is if they end up with a 125 run negative differential, it's not bad luck, it was bad predicting by you/Shore/Trent et al. I can only say that being on here, pessimism sometimes gets tempered by optimism such that Shore and Trent may have been unconsciously swayed by optimism. It's why no one likes to be a Bear on Wall Street. Those guys never get invited to parties.

That last paragraph might be the craziest thing I've ever read here.

Kudos

you ARE aware of the wrestling threat right

I'm usually my most optimistic in April, but with Howard's good ST and Roy looking decent....yeah, I thought 86 wins was realistic.

can anyone convince me darin ruf can't be allen craig? obviously ruf's only had 120 pa, but every time i watch him that's who i think of. similar body types, similar career paths, similar profiles.

Ruf sucks.

Yeah, Ruf has at the very worst provided as much value as Howard. All the dude does is get on base.

ReadingPhilly wrote:can anyone convince me darin ruf can't be allen craig? obviously ruf's only had 120 pa, but every time i watch him that's who i think of. similar body types, similar career paths, similar profiles.

man this would be awesome but

age 22
craig: A+/AA .909 OPS
Ruf: Rk/A- .855

Age 23
Craig: AA .867
Ruf: A/A+ .814

Age 24
Craig: AAA .921
Ruf: A+ .894

Age 25
Craig: AAA .938 (in 350 PAs after which he was called up)
Ruf: AA 1.028

ruf is behind him developmentally, but certainly a possibility. i'd be so happy if he came anywhere close

I bet he could outdrink Allan Craig

joe table wrote:I bet he could outdrink Allan Craig

Really

I think Ruf is a guy who can contribute in the majors and outproduce his compensation through his prime. This doesn't mean he's worth playing every day, much less at 1b where you need premium offense. But I'm glad it looks like he'll have two months to show us either way.

The bigger question is probably whether Howard is going to be flat-out unproductive, or merely worth some fraction of his contract. I don't think we can say yet. At well less than 100 percent this year, he was slightly on the good side by OPS+. If he were semi-platooned and went .270/.350/.500 in 500 PAs, I'd take it at this point.

dajafi wrote:I think Ruf is a guy who can contribute in the majors and outproduce his compensation through his prime. This doesn't mean he's worth playing every day, much less at 1b where you need premium offense. But I'm glad it looks like he'll have two months to show us either way.


The bigger question is probably whether Howard is going to be flat-out unproductive, or merely worth some fraction of his contract. I don't think we can say yet. At well less than 100 percent this year, he was slightly on the good side by OPS+. If he were semi-platooned and went .270/.350/.500 in 500 PAs, I'd take it at this point.

He should never get a meaningful AB against a LHP again. Ever. Has Kd 45 percent of the time the last 2 years. Finding a manager with the nuts to platoon him would be my number 1 priority.

But if you DO find that manager, don't you suddenly have a GREAT 1B situation? Like top 5 in the league. You tell Howard he will NEVER have an important ab against LH again (and frankly shaming him is part of the goal) and you have Ruf playing against the lefties and suddenly you have the great 1B you thought you were spending 25 million on in the first place. All for 25.4 million.

sydnor wrote:But if you DO find that manager, don't you suddenly have a GREAT 1B situation? Like top 5 in the league. You tell Howard he will NEVER have an important ab against LH again (and frankly shaming him is part of the goal) and you have Ruf playing against the lefties and suddenly you have the great 1B you thought you were spending 25 million on in the first place. All for 25.4 million.

Would be ideal. Howard is still solid against RHP.

Against LHP, only Ike Davis has a lower OBP over the last two years. He has a 10 to 1 K/BB ratio. It's not just that he is bad, it's that he is literally one of the 2 or 3 worst HITTERS in baseball against LHP. He is an abomination. And he provides no other value (significant negative value actually). Someone please think of the children and stop the madness.

Ben Revere's OPS by month. .456; .712; .805; 857.

He picked a bad time to get hurt. Certainly, he was trending in the right direction. I don't think he's a .857 OPS kinda guy. But he certainly looks good at this point. He covers a lot of ground in the OF. He takes a few funny routes. I trust defensive stats less and less as time goes on. I just looked up Aaron Rowand. His last year in Chicago he was plus 34 in CF according to the Dewan system. His first year in Philly he drops to -11. A whopping -19 is in his deep rating. In Chicago he had double digit plus deep ratings for two years before coming to Philly.

Victorino had huge negative numbers in his deep rating as well. Revere is plus seven until you factor in the ridiculous -14 deep rating. He deep rating was plus 13 in 2011 in CF and plus 10 in RF in 2012 in Minnesota.

The defensive numbers are insane. I think CBP hurts CFers based on the deep numbers. Too much evidence pointing that way. This is like the LF in Fenway thing I did a while back. Home parks seem to have a big effect on OF defensive metrics. I also believe your pitching staff effects those numbers.

Right now I'm very much concerned his injury might have a big negative effect on his future. A broken ankle requiring surgery right? I can see that being pretty bad for a speed guy.