"Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoughts

Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby azrider » Sat Jan 05, 2013 17:11:48

Wheels Tupay wrote:
azrider wrote:
Grotewold wrote:Apparently ILK posted on another board the Phils are working on a three-team deal for JUPTON

Image


i still hear brown, galvis, aumont, and valle is still on the table but dbacks are holding out for biddle and joseph instead of aumont and valle.



Where did you see this?


heard it on the radio out here twice, once during the winter meetings and again late last week.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby ReadingPhilly » Sat Jan 05, 2013 17:40:31

that deal is such a no brainer and would make me feel real good.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby iladelph53 » Sat Jan 05, 2013 18:19:57

Ace Rothstein wrote:Phillies calendar came in the mail today, Ace Kendrick leading off with January


Yuck!
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby iladelph53 » Sat Jan 05, 2013 18:22:16

ReadingPhilly wrote:that deal is such a no brainer and would make me feel real good.


I agree, even with Biddle. Biddle is not a Cole Hamels sure thing. Upton is so young. Get 'eem!
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby joe table » Sat Jan 05, 2013 18:31:44

I'd do Brown plus any three prospects they want. Or sub Aumont for one of them. Upton is ideal fit here

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby bury me » Sat Jan 05, 2013 18:33:37

the only two i'd hold on to at this stage would be Quinn and Tocci

edit: there's no doubt that if Quinn keeps developing his defense, he'd be a top prospect. i'd rather have him than upton, but i'm being really really optimistic about him

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Grotewold » Sat Jan 05, 2013 18:36:31

Feel like Lee would go to TX or Ariz

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby kruker » Sat Jan 05, 2013 18:38:55

I don't think we have anywhere near the top end talent to get an Upton deal done. Prove me wrong, Rube.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby joe table » Sat Jan 05, 2013 18:39:49

Don't think I'd support unloading Lee in conjunction w/Upton. I assume it would be a net prospect loss, and Lee is still dominant. Need to add to what we've got to try to win now, not shuffle the deck

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Grotewold » Sat Jan 05, 2013 18:49:19

joe table wrote:Don't think I'd support unloading Lee in conjunction w/Upton. I assume it would be a net prospect loss, and Lee is still dominant. Need to add to what we've got to try to win now, not shuffle the deck


I agree, just cant see us topping OIt and guys of that caliber, especially since they don't need Brown. The three-way rumor made me nervous it's Lee, unless someone else loves Brown

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Wheels Tupay » Sat Jan 05, 2013 18:52:33

kruker wrote:I don't think we have anywhere near the top end talent to get an Upton deal done. Prove me wrong, Rube.


They have plenty to get Upton.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Wheels Tupay » Sat Jan 05, 2013 18:53:40

ReadingPhilly wrote:that deal is such a no brainer and would make me feel real good.


Really, swap Joseph for Valle and bring me Upton.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby FTN » Sat Jan 05, 2013 18:56:43

i think upton's stock is down a fair bit at this point, whether you believe that is rational or not.

i doubt texas would have traded profar for him, since that is apparently who AZ was asking for the whole time.

if teams arent willing to trade uber prospects for him, then we'd have a shot, because while we dont have any uber prospects, we have a few very good prospects

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby ReadingPhilly » Sat Jan 05, 2013 18:58:34

FTN wrote:i think upton's stock is down a fair bit at this point, whether you believe that is rational or not.

i doubt texas would have traded profar for him, since that is apparently who AZ was asking for the whole time.

if teams arent willing to trade uber prospects for him, then we'd have a shot, because while we dont have any uber prospects, we have a few very good prospects


i think chances are low, but i just keep telling myself - kevin towers, kevin towers, kevin towers.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby LongDrive » Sat Jan 05, 2013 19:29:41

There's also reports that San Diego has been discussing a Headley/Upton deal since last July.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby pacino » Sat Jan 05, 2013 20:20:12

ben revere has quite the twitter feed, hat tip to barry jive
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby PhillyPhan » Sat Jan 05, 2013 21:41:01

You know that no deal will be announces until the Eagles hire a coach just to steal the thunder. That's classic smuggie
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby allentown » Sat Jan 05, 2013 21:46:17

ReadingPhilly wrote:that deal is such a no brainer and would make me feel real good.

Is it really that much of a no-brainer. Upton's numbers 1) weren't all that good last season and 2) were inflated by playing in AZ. On the road he's got an OPS of .670 in about 300 AB. So, statistically significant and pretty craptastic. His trade value is increased by the bet that he will get back to the near-.900 overall OPS of 2011. He seems to alternate good/poor seasons, so 2013 might well be good. But, he is expensive, so it's a gamble for a corner OF who may well turn in another .670 road OPS. His road OPS is pretty much equal to Mayberry for last season. Yes, Upton steals some bases, but at a success rate where the steals are just about dead neutral in value. Someone will pay a lot for him, betting he'll improve significantly over 2012. The Diamondbacks, who know him best, will trade him betting that he won't significantly improve and won't be worth his contract going forward. Beware of hitters or pitchers whose success is largely a function of their home ballpark. They are always over-priced. Better to go the opposite direction and take the guy whose road stats are better. People tend not to correct stats. I think even GMs are guilty of that.
Last edited by allentown on Sat Jan 05, 2013 21:48:35, edited 1 time in total.
We now know that Amaro really is running the Phillies. He and Monty seem to have ignored the committee.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Ace Rothstein » Sat Jan 05, 2013 21:48:25

yeah im not getting the whole give up a couple good prospects for upton thing

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby FTN » Sat Jan 05, 2013 22:07:44

upton's 4 year average (age 21-24 seasons)

.286/.362/.485 - 30 2b - 23 hr - 19 sb

hes a righthanded power hitting right fielder. right handed power is rare. he was 4th in the mvp voting in 2011 at age 23. his AAV is 12.83M for the next 3 years. you aren't signing a player with his current ability and future upside for 3/38 on the open market. when looking at his road stats, are you considering that the road parks in his division, where he plays the most road games, includes petco, att and dodger stadium, three radical pitchers parks? the only hitter friendly road park is coors.

upton is 1 week older than bumonic clown. so if upton has question marks, that makes brown a complete zero

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