The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided.

swishnicholson wrote:The [url=https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct28Rasmussen poll[/url] is always a hoot, but just to make everyone feel better the latest states:

The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided.

Of course the question posed was " If the presidential election was held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?" and for mnay Americans that horse is already back in the barn since they've already voted.

Strongly disapprove has dropped eight points and strongly approve has risen seven due to the fine work he's done over the last three weeks, doing whatever exactly that is.

swishnicholson wrote:The [url=https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct28Rasmussen poll[/url] is always a hoot, but just to make everyone feel better the latest states:

The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided.

Of course the question posed was " If the presidential election was held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?" and for mnay Americans that horse is already back in the barn since they've already voted.

Strongly disapprove has dropped eight points and strongly approve has risen seven due to the fine work he's done over the last three weeks, doing whatever exactly that is.

WilliamC wrote:

swishnicholson wrote:The [url=https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct28Rasmussen poll[/url] is always a hoot, but just to make everyone feel better the latest states:

The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided.

Of course the question posed was " If the presidential election was held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?" and for mnay Americans that horse is already back in the barn since they've already voted.

Strongly disapprove has dropped eight points and strongly approve has risen seven due to the fine work he's done over the last three weeks, doing whatever exactly that is.

He goes out in public and campaigns. Not that I personally would be moved by that but he does seem far more able to do political things now than someone who hasbeen in politics for half a century.

slugsrbad wrote:

swishnicholson wrote:The [url=https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct28Rasmussen poll[/url] is always a hoot, but just to make everyone feel better the latest states:

The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided.

Of course the question posed was " If the presidential election was held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?" and for mnay Americans that horse is already back in the barn since they've already voted.

Strongly disapprove has dropped eight points and strongly approve has risen seven due to the fine work he's done over the last three weeks, doing whatever exactly that is.

Rasmussen is a pretty stinky pollster I believe, right? Especially with the founder Scott Rasmussen leaving and starting a new website.

MoBettle wrote:Just feel like you’re cherry picking stuff in the model. I’m sure Hillary’s chances dwindled much below 2/3 if you gave trump Florida in 2016.

Wolfgang622 wrote:

MoBettle wrote:Just feel like you’re cherry picking stuff in the model. I’m sure Hillary’s chances dwindled much below 2/3 if you gave trump Florida in 2016.

Fair enough.

The Rasmussen poll that swish cites above, granting the issues with Rasmussen, provides some evidence that the tightening everyone was anticipating is happening.

The thing that gets me of course is that Trump basically has no chance of winning the popular vote, I think everyone recognizes that. He could conceivably lose it by 5 points if he ekes out narrow wins in PA and holds his other states.

On average, Biden has gained 0.5 points in post-debate polls (median field date of Friday or later) vs. the previous editions of those same polls. However, he's gained 1.5 points if you exclude Rasmussen's national poll and Insider Advantage's PA poll.

It's not great to reverse-cherry-pick by throwing out data that doesn't match the trend. On the other hand, there's this group of quasi-partisan pollsters that plainly behave like partisan polls even though they may or may not officially get classified that way by our model.

If the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).

In a taped interview on April 18, Kushner told legendary journalist Bob Woodward that Trump was "getting the country back from the doctors" in what he called a "negotiated settlement." Kushner also proclaimed that the US was moving swiftly through the "panic phase" and "pain phase" of the pandemic and that the country was at the "beginning of the comeback phase."

"That doesn't mean there's not still a lot of pain and there won't be pain for a while, but that basically was, we've now put out rules to get back to work," Kushner said. "Trump's now back in charge. It's not the doctors."

slugsrbad wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

MoBettle wrote:Just feel like you’re cherry picking stuff in the model. I’m sure Hillary’s chances dwindled much below 2/3 if you gave trump Florida in 2016.

Fair enough.

The Rasmussen poll that swish cites above, granting the issues with Rasmussen, provides some evidence that the tightening everyone was anticipating is happening.

The thing that gets me of course is that Trump basically has no chance of winning the popular vote, I think everyone recognizes that. He could conceivably lose it by 5 points if he ekes out narrow wins in PA and holds his other states.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 87779?s=20

From 10/26/20:

On average, Biden has gained 0.5 points in post-debate polls (median field date of Friday or later) vs. the previous editions of those same polls. However, he's gained 1.5 points if you exclude Rasmussen's national poll and Insider Advantage's PA poll.

It's not great to reverse-cherry-pick by throwing out data that doesn't match the trend. On the other hand, there's this group of quasi-partisan pollsters that plainly behave like partisan polls even though they may or may not officially get classified that way by our model.

If the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).

slugsrbad wrote:I'm fine with you being wrong too... but I want you to have some data to help assuage your fears. There hasn't been much tightening.. and while PA isn't a sure thing there are a lot of good signs in "backup" states like Arizona, Georgia, Texas, NE-2, etc. *fingers crossed*

WilliamC wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:I'm fine with you being wrong too... but I want you to have some data to help assuage your fears. There hasn't been much tightening.. and while PA isn't a sure thing there are a lot of good signs in "backup" states like Arizona, Georgia, Texas, NE-2, etc. *fingers crossed*

Someone had told me that Trump's numbers jumped +3 in Florida after Bowden said he didn't die from Covid because he had to vote for Trump. That is hilarious and sad if true. I don't think it could be true?
''

momadance wrote:

WilliamC wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:I'm fine with you being wrong too... but I want you to have some data to help assuage your fears. There hasn't been much tightening.. and while PA isn't a sure thing there are a lot of good signs in "backup" states like Arizona, Georgia, Texas, NE-2, etc. *fingers crossed*

Someone had told me that Trump's numbers jumped +3 in Florida after Bowden said he didn't die from Covid because he had to vote for Trump. That is hilarious and sad if true. I don't think it could be true?
''

"I've had a chance to get a lot of wins in my life, but I really wanted to win this one because I wanted to be around to vote for President Trump,'' Bowden said.

The Sarge wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

Ace Rothstein wrote:Trump rally in Omaha leaves 1000s stranded in freezing weather after a snafu in returning the rally goers to their cars over 3 miles away

Was going to have a hard time winning NE-2 to begin with. Going to be a bit harder if he freezes a bunch of people who are going to vote for him.

Who will he blame? The libs? The media? I mean, it HAS to be someone else's fault.

I'm assuming the campaign refused to pay for the buses?

slugsrbad wrote:New Monmouth Poll of Georgia:
Biden 50% (+4 from Sept.), Trump 45% (-2 from Sept.)
Ossof 49 (+7 from Sept.), Perdue 46% (-2 from Sept.)

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1 ... 68419?s=20