jamiethekiller wrote:watching the results come in for these states that pre-canvas is gonna be excruciating. Gonna see an immediate huge Biden lead and watch it slowly detiorate through the next few hours as votes are tallies for in-person.

Ches Co now anticipates it can be done counting all mail in ballots received before nov 3 by nov 4 at 7am. we shall see!

The rapid closing down of the economy along with massive drops in the market this week should convince whoever is still on the fence to go Biden

Stay_Disappointed wrote:The rapid closing down of the economy along with massive drops in the market this week should convince whoever is still on the fence to go Biden

this was going to happen regardless of who the president is?

Stay_Disappointed wrote:The rapid closing down of the economy along with massive drops in the market this week should convince whoever is still on the fence to go Biden

I don't envy the job Biden is going to have when he takes over in January.

jamiethekiller wrote:

Stay_Disappointed wrote:The rapid closing down of the economy along with massive drops in the market this week should convince whoever is still on the fence to go Biden

this was going to happen regardless of who the president is?

At this point yes but it’s driving home the point that the economy can’t be fixed until you control Covid

heyeaglefn wrote:

Stay_Disappointed wrote:The rapid closing down of the economy along with massive drops in the market this week should convince whoever is still on the fence to go Biden

I don't envy the job Biden is going to have when he takes over in January.

Especially after trump sabotages everything he can after the election

Market plummeting close to 800 pts before 11am

Stay_Disappointed wrote:Market plummeting close to 800 pts before 11am

Hmmm.

everyone knows it's because the senate recessed without a relief bill right? so it's not true to say this would've happened regardless who is president.

my bad, thought it was intimating something else.

momadance wrote:

I laughed at this way more than I should have.

CalvinBall wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

z ipper wrote:is the prevailing thought that the presidential election result won't be called until at least a few days later?
cause that will kinda suck.

Maybe officially, but we should have a good idea if Biden wins Florida on election night, and if he wins Florida, he basically wins.

If he loses Florida then you're likely needing to wait until PA and WI count their shit, which could take time.

is arizona normally pretty quick?

other big indicators could be NC or GA too. can't recall how fast they are.

If you believe 538 even Iowa, NE-2, and ME-2 are big indicators.

well we know you don't believe them Moz

Cook Political moved Texas to a toss up.

Dems have returned about 1.4 million ballots in PA. Rs at 430k.

lag in those numbers surely but that is a 70 percent return rate for Ds and a 55 percent return rate for Rs. Doesn't show us who those people are voting for obviously. My guess is the return rate will be somewhere in the mid 80s for Ds by election day.

Bucky wrote:well we know you don't believe them Moz

Yes.

I still wonder about the falsifiability issue of a one-time event forecast. I mean, if the odds start to move above 90/10, so that Trump's win probability dwindles to single digits, then yes, I expect if the win comes true that even 538 will look hard at its model.

But take 2016. Trump was a little less than a 3/10 shot to win according to their model on election day. Low, but high enough, and importantly higher than other prognosticators, that they can shrug their shoulders and say, "well, a 1 in 4 shot is hardly impossible."

But how will we ever know those odds were right? All we know is he won. I guess one might look at the razor thin margins in PA, MI, and WI, and the fact that Hillary won the popular vote by almost 3M, and Trump's almost immediate dive into underwater on the favorability scale as supporting evidence for the Trump win as having been unlikely. But on the other hand 75/25 or 70/30 is almost exactly in the "probably not but maybe so" range that renders a projection model like 538's, for all its sophistication and for all the time, money, and resources they pour into it, effectively useless, as "probably not but maybe so" is a statement anyone with even a basic understanding of politics and polling could make. Beyond that, how can we ever know that the numeric projection was accurate as a calculation? In other words, that there are 100 nearly identical universes on November 8, 2016, that Hillary emerged the winner in 71 of them? Maybe it's the model that was wrong: and there is no way we can ever know.

What concerns me about 2020 is that Trump, according to the 538 forecast, which I will take as the best even with the caveats above, has Trump with a 1 in 3 chance to win Florida, which represents a small improvement of late, and which are slightly better than his odds, according to them, of having won in 2016 - which he did.

AND, if he wins FL, which I still think is probable based on the FL red zag while the rest of the country zigged blue in 2018, THEN, according to 538, Biden's win probability for the election is only 2 in 3, or less than Hillary's on election day 2016.

The counter of course is that Biden's poll numbers are better and that he is importantly over 50% in most polling in PA, WI, and MI. But if THAT is true, why aren't his odds better in the 538 forecast?

Shaky, this whole thing is shaky.

Perhaps today's events do give Biden a final push, or perhaps the stock market is full recovered before the bell today.

Just feel like you’re cherry picking stuff in the model. I’m sure Hillary’s chances dwindled much below 2/3 if you gave trump Florida in 2016.

Pollsters took the information from 2016 feel they have improved their polls since then by adjusting for education and so on. They were very accurate in 2018 Fwiw. Model is based on polls. We’ll see.

I share the 2016 concerns many have. But there are a couple of things to keep in mind. First, Trump's win in 2016 was very narrow. He ran against a candidate many had spent decades disliking. The media was tougher on HRC than they were on Trump. Pollsters were surprised by how non-college educated whites voted.

Things are different now. First, looking at polls, Biden is in a better position than HRC, whether you look at state polls or national polls. I imagine most polls have adjusted their weighting to reflect the non-college educated white vote. And keep in mind pollsters are simply not trying to suppress Republican turnout by exaggerating Biden support. If anything, pollsters (like everyone else in media and in the campaigns themselves) have incentives to show a close election. Trump seems to be doing worse among white suburban women and the elderly. His path to victory in fact seems to depend on doing better among specifically Latino and African-American men.

Now, there are issues with voter suppression and intimidation, but I'm not seeing reports of any incidents. Obviously, none of the polling or anything else can account for Republicans and courts stealing the election or out right falsifying returns. I simply hope even corrupt Republicans realize how dangerous that game really is.