It truly is that simple. The only way to get Joe Biden elected is to make a plan and follow through on it. While you're at it ask your friends/family if they have a plan to vote.

New Iowa Monmouth Poll has Biden (+4) at 50/47 and Greenfield (+2) at 49/47.

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/stat ... 20321?s=20

slugsrbad wrote:New Iowa Monmouth Poll has Biden (+4) at 50/47 and Greenfield (+2) at 49/47.

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/stat ... 20321?s=20

Encouraging.

Confidently typing "Trump is going to win" and NOT being a MAGA supporter is a wild thing to me. I'm surprised to be seeing this kind of language (again) from Moz. I don't know what it is - does typing it make you feel more at ease? Will you just be like "whew, ok" when Biden wins?

If you go back to 2016 and asked 10 people on this board who voted for Clinton how they felt about her, you're going to see a lot more negativity than you would if you asked 10 people now voting for Biden how they feel about him. Surely some of that is Trump-related, but he's infinitely more likeable than her, and doing my best to say that without sounding misogynistic while just speaking the truth. It's a different race than 2016 in so many ways. You can even start with the fact that the candidate is from a battleground state where he's well-liked in many areas. The polls in Wisconsin and Michigan are completely different than 2016. I don't understand the negativity. If Trump pulls this off, it's the greatest political upset in history.

So I was looking at the Georgia/Ohio/NC/PA polls. This is completely unscientific, but looking at the 5 most recent polls on 538 (B- or better pollster rankings), oldest to newest:

Georgia: Tie, Biden + 7, Biden +2, Trump +1, Tie
Ohio: Tie, Trump +1, Trump +3, Biden +1, Trump +3
North Carolina: Biden +4, Tie, Biden +2, Biden +4, Biden +2
Pennsylvania: Biden +8, Biden +6, Biden +3, Biden +4, Biden +6

As a note, if there was a pollster who released two or more polls at the same time I picked the poll with the bigger data set and/or the one that included third party candidates.

I don't know if negative/positive trends can really be read here other than I feel better about NC and PA.

EDIT: Added the other two barely Trump 2016 states

Michigan: Biden +7, Biden +9, Biden +9, Biden +6, Biden +8
Wisconsin: Biden +7, Biden +10, Biden +8, Biden +5, Biden +6

CFP wrote:Confidently typing "Trump is going to win" and NOT being a MAGA supporter is a wild thing to me. I'm surprised to be seeing this kind of language (again) from Moz. I don't know what it is - does typing it make you feel more at ease? Will you just be like "whew, ok" when Biden wins?

If you go back to 2016 and asked 10 people on this board who voted for Clinton how they felt about her, you're going to see a lot more negativity than you would if you asked 10 people now voting for Biden how they feel about him. Surely some of that is Trump-related, but he's infinitely more likeable than her, and doing my best to say that without sounding misogynistic while just speaking the truth. It's a different race than 2016 in so many ways. You can even start with the fact that the candidate is from a battleground state where he's well-liked in many areas. The polls in Wisconsin and Michigan are completely different than 2016. I don't understand the negativity. If Trump pulls this off, it's the greatest political upset in history.

Sounds like he is trying for a a reverse jinx.

For context, the Comey letter dropped on the equivalent of this coming Friday (Remember when people compare equivalent dates 4 years ago, the election is happening almost a week earlier this year, thank heavens). It will probably take a “scandal” of that nature plus a similar polling error (or a small scandal but larger polling error or vice versa) to get close to a 2016 map. Is it implausible, no, is it likely, no.

If anything it seems more likely that pollsters are really gunshy about getting it wrong in the exact same way as 2016 and overcorrect, but who knows.

Of course if ME-2 goes blue on that 538 thing Biden's chances of a win according to their forecast rise to 97% so maybe if that is called blue on election night we can all just fucking relax.

Failing that, if the NE-2 district goes blue (evidently more likely), Biden's chances are 96% according to 538, so that would also be a comfort.

This all assumes everything stays the same for the next two weeks of course.

so this friday we can expect them to drop hunter's 2nd grade report card where he got a D in arithmetic?

the apprehension is that Biden is probably a worse candidate than Hilary was. At least with Hilary it was just all dumb stuff not related to anything policy wise. Biden has a mile long history of being a shitty person(helped decimate the working middle class and destroy generations of african american families). He'll probably do worse than Hilary in the burbs(who have truly benefited from Trump) and will have to do much much better in the cities than Hilary did and i'm not sure he's capable of that(hoping that being VP to Obama helps out there).

All the polling seems extremely favorable but there's plenty of warning signs that dampen that enthusiasm(along with just seeing the general Trump enthusiasm in the area that is overwhelming).

Bucky wrote:so this friday we can expect them to drop hunter's 2nd grade report card where he got a D in arithmetic?

I’m sure they have something cooking. Unlike with Comey though Trump is in charge of the government so it seems more likely that anything official would be seen as clearly partisan, and any personal thing coming out at this point people would be dubious, but we will see.

jamiethekiller wrote:the apprehension is that Biden is probably a worse candidate than Hilary was. At least with Hilary it was just all dumb stuff not related to anything policy wise. Biden has a mile long history of being a shitty person(helped decimate the working middle class and destroy generations of african american families). He'll probably do worse than Hilary in the burbs(who have truly benefited from Trump) and will have to do much much better in the cities than Hilary did and i'm not sure he's capable of that(hoping that being VP to Obama helps out there).

All the polling seems extremely favorable but there's plenty of warning signs that dampen that enthusiasm(along with just seeing the general Trump enthusiasm in the area that is overwhelming).

There is a difference between enacting shitty policy with shitty outcomes and being a shitty person. Joe Biden, by all accounts, is one of the most empathetic and caring people in politics.

Also all the takes I've seen are suburban women fleeing President Trump so I'm not sure why you think he'll do worse in the suburbs (also Philly suburbs or suburbs in general?)

I've always been expecting they will drop some fake medical report on Biden to try to get people scared that Harris will be the president shortly after Joe would take office. Fire up the racism and sexism that can drive people to vote I guess.

slugsrbad wrote:

jamiethekiller wrote:the apprehension is that Biden is probably a worse candidate than Hilary was. At least with Hilary it was just all dumb stuff not related to anything policy wise. Biden has a mile long history of being a shitty person(helped decimate the working middle class and destroy generations of african american families). He'll probably do worse than Hilary in the burbs(who have truly benefited from Trump) and will have to do much much better in the cities than Hilary did and i'm not sure he's capable of that(hoping that being VP to Obama helps out there).

All the polling seems extremely favorable but there's plenty of warning signs that dampen that enthusiasm(along with just seeing the general Trump enthusiasm in the area that is overwhelming).

There is a difference between enacting shitty policy with shitty outcomes and being a shitty person. Joe Biden, by all accounts, is one of the most empathetic and caring people in politics.

Also all the takes I've seen are suburban women fleeing President Trump so I'm not sure why you think he'll do worse in the suburbs (also Philly suburbs or suburbs in general?)

JTK is just pissed that Bernie lost. All of the evidence points to the opposite of his claim about Trump's suburban appeal.

Don't underestimate how many 65+ older voters hate Trump.

jamiethekiller wrote:the apprehension is that Biden is probably a worse candidate than Hilary was. At least with Hilary it was just all dumb stuff not related to anything policy wise. Biden has a mile long history of being a shitty person(helped decimate the working middle class and destroy generations of african american families). He'll probably do worse than Hilary in the burbs(who have truly benefited from Trump) and will have to do much much better in the cities than Hilary did and i'm not sure he's capable of that(hoping that being VP to Obama helps out there).

All the polling seems extremely favorable but there's plenty of warning signs that dampen that enthusiasm(along with just seeing the general Trump enthusiasm in the area that is overwhelming).

Setting aside anything else about this take, the idea that Biden is somehow a worse or less likeable candidate than Hillary strikes me as a willful disregard of the obvious.

This is not to say that I am overly confident, but Hillary was uniquely not good.

Wolfgang622 wrote:

jamiethekiller wrote:the apprehension is that Biden is probably a worse candidate than Hilary was. At least with Hilary it was just all dumb stuff not related to anything policy wise. Biden has a mile long history of being a shitty person(helped decimate the working middle class and destroy generations of african american families). He'll probably do worse than Hilary in the burbs(who have truly benefited from Trump) and will have to do much much better in the cities than Hilary did and i'm not sure he's capable of that(hoping that being VP to Obama helps out there).

All the polling seems extremely favorable but there's plenty of warning signs that dampen that enthusiasm(along with just seeing the general Trump enthusiasm in the area that is overwhelming).

Setting aside anything else about this take, the idea that Biden is somehow a worse or less likeable candidate than Hillary strikes me as a willful disregard of the obvious.

This is not to say that I am overly confident, but Hillary was uniquely not good.

Yeah, that whole post was just one long misinformed hot take.

Biden will do even better in the suburbs. Pretty clear that is happening already.

heyeaglefn wrote:I've always been expecting they will drop some fake medical report on Biden to try to get people scared that Harris will be the president shortly after Joe would take office. Fire up the racism and sexism that can drive people to vote I guess.

Recent extremely vocal Trump shill Maria Bartiromo tried this a week ago when she peddled "news" during one of her seemingly daily interviews with Trump by noting that her "medical sources" told her that Joe Biden had not one but two brain aneurysms. She "prays to God" that it isn't true but her "medical sources are solid". Biden did, in fact, have surgery in 1988 to address two aneurysms so her medical sources were dead on reporting what was already common knowledge. The fake part of this is her trying pass it off like the aneurysms just happened the day before. And naturally Trump played along.

Here's the clip:

https://www.mediaite.com/trump/watch-fo ... cades-ago/

CalvinBall wrote:Biden will do even better in the suburbs. Pretty clear that is happening already.

(Not in my neighborhood- yeesh)