It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 14:35:27

slugsrbad wrote:Quinnipiac poll has Biden up 8 in PA (51/43). They had him up +13 earlier in October.. but that was seen as a huge outlier.

As long as he is over 50.

by **Bucky** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 14:39:47

TenuredVulture wrote:Arkansas is weird-

by **Phred** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 14:39:57

TenuredVulture wrote:Just voted. About a 30 minute wait--mostly outside. Arkansas is weird--it seems just about anyone can get on the ballot for the Presidency, but other offices not so much. Voted Libertarian for the first time in my life, since we do not have a Democrat running against Tom Cotton in the Senate. (Cotton has never won an election against a serious opponent in his political career.)

How is this possible?

by **TenuredVulture** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 14:44:05

Phred wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:Just voted. About a 30 minute wait--mostly outside. Arkansas is weird--it seems just about anyone can get on the ballot for the Presidency, but other offices not so much. Voted Libertarian for the first time in my life, since we do not have a Democrat running against Tom Cotton in the Senate. (Cotton has never won an election against a serious opponent in his political career.)

How is this possible?

There was a Democrat who dropped out of the race for "personal" reasons when it was too late to nominate someone else. Rumor is the Cotton people found something compromising about him he didn't want public.

This gives me another opportunity to bitch about how dumb the Democrats were to drop Dean's 50 state strategy....

by **thephan** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 14:44:29

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/ ... 279155002/

USA Today did some nice legwork on Trump's 19 sexual misconduct accuser, which is a mind blowing number in and of itself

by **MFP** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 14:50:40

slugsrbad wrote:Quinnipiac poll has Biden up 8 in PA (51/43). They had him up +13 earlier in October.. but that was seen as a huge outlier.

It also has Texas tied at 47% each.

by **Bucky** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 15:05:59

"I've met him, of course. He was the mayor of New York, where I have many real estate holdings. But I don't know him very well"

by **CFP** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 16:22:15

momadance wrote:@daveweigel
New Jersey and Vermont have joined Texas in an elite club: States where turnout is already more than 50% of the total vote four years ago.

When my wife asked me for a bold political prediction over the summer I said Biden wins Texas. Would be nuts if it happens

by **CalvinBall** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 16:25:27

Talked about in the other thread, but 3 good polls for Biden in PA today. 13 days to go.

by **Bucky** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 16:26:21

it's gonna happen, ya know, because all the trump supporters say you must vote in person on election day

by **Monkeyboy** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 16:29:14

whoops, just saw this thread. I'll repost here.

Yes, he just needs to win one of them and I really think he will win PA because it will go to SCOTUS. It's already set up.

But even without cheating, if he's got a 15% chance at all 3, then he's got a 45% chance to win one of them. If we get a 3% swing towards Trump with bad polling or GOP voters coming home to roost (which they almost always do), all those states propping up Biden's win % will disappear and we'll be down to the same 3 states again. It's hard to replace PA electoral votes without winning FL or needing multiple red states to turn blue. With his unpopularity on the coasts being off the charts, he could lose the popular vote by 5% and still sneak out the electoral win.

by **CalvinBall** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 16:29:36

CalvinBall wrote:Talked about in the other thread, but 3 good polls for Biden in PA today. 13 days to go.

In the CNN poll that just came out-- 1/4 of the sample has already voted. 88 percent of those people voted for Biden, 10 percent for Trump.

as long as people had their secrecy envelopes Biden is certainly going to have a large lead heading into the last day of voting on November 3.

by **MoBettle** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 16:42:05

Monkeyboy wrote:whoops, just saw this thread. I'll repost here.

Yes, he just needs to win one of them and I really think he will win PA because it will go to SCOTUS. It's already set up.

But even without cheating, if he's got a 15% chance at all 3, then he's got a 45% chance to win one of them. If we get a 3% swing towards Trump with bad polling or GOP voters coming home to roost (which they almost always do), all those states propping up Biden's win % will disappear and we'll be down to the same 3 states again. It's hard to replace PA electoral votes without winning FL or needing multiple red states to turn blue. With his unpopularity on the coasts being off the charts, he could lose the popular vote by 5% and still sneak out the electoral win.

And I’ll just repeat that’s not how it works. Silver explains this in one of the first questions on the 538 podcast on Friday last week.

by **06hawkalum** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 16:56:29

MoBettle wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:whoops, just saw this thread. I'll repost here.

Yes, he just needs to win one of them and I really think he will win PA because it will go to SCOTUS. It's already set up.

But even without cheating, if he's got a 15% chance at all 3, then he's got a 45% chance to win one of them. If we get a 3% swing towards Trump with bad polling or GOP voters coming home to roost (which they almost always do), all those states propping up Biden's win % will disappear and we'll be down to the same 3 states again. It's hard to replace PA electoral votes without winning FL or needing multiple red states to turn blue. With his unpopularity on the coasts being off the charts, he could lose the popular vote by 5% and still sneak out the electoral win.

And I’ll just repeat that’s not how it works. Silver explains this in one of the first questions on the 538 podcast on Friday last week.

Thanks, this business about state legislatures or the SCOTUS stealing the election for Trump is just misinformed fear porn imo.

by **momadance** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 17:13:03

Who cares about COVID. Life is a pre-existing condition anyway per CDC.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1 ... 40709?s=09

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 17:29:21

he's just explaining the concept of excess deaths in response to a reporter's question
https://www.c-span.org/video/?477227-1/ ... conference

starts around 20:30

by **Monkeyboy** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 17:36:18

06hawkalum wrote:
MoBettle wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:whoops, just saw this thread. I'll repost here.

Yes, he just needs to win one of them and I really think he will win PA because it will go to SCOTUS. It's already set up.

But even without cheating, if he's got a 15% chance at all 3, then he's got a 45% chance to win one of them. If we get a 3% swing towards Trump with bad polling or GOP voters coming home to roost (which they almost always do), all those states propping up Biden's win % will disappear and we'll be down to the same 3 states again. It's hard to replace PA electoral votes without winning FL or needing multiple red states to turn blue. With his unpopularity on the coasts being off the charts, he could lose the popular vote by 5% and still sneak out the electoral win.

And I’ll just repeat that’s not how it works. Silver explains this in one of the first questions on the 538 podcast on Friday last week.

Thanks, this business about state legislatures or the SCOTUS stealing the election for Trump is just misinformed fear porn imo.

**ring** *ring*

It's 2000 on the phone. They want to speak with you.

I usually don't listen to podcasts because I'm easily distracted with two kids and being up all night. I find I lose attention and then have to rewind to try to find where I left off. Despite being an auditory person, I prefer to read the news because I can just stop and then come back to it more easily.

That said, I'll try to take a listen to the podcast if I have the time tonight.

I think anyone scarred from the mental gymnastics the SCOTUS showed in 2000 is rightly nervous about this election and what seems to be clearly a scramble to get her on the court before the election. She was involved in 2000 and they will steal it for him if they get the chance. Maybe they won't get the chance.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 18:04:21

As I was walking around my neighborhood knocking doors for Marlene Katz, it occurred to me that the motivation behind Trump calling the election results into question may not so much be about trying to actually seize power despite of an apparent or certified result, but rather cast doubt on the legitimacy of that result in preparation for a run for a second term four years from now for which he will be eligible if he loses. Can anyone really see him just fading into the sunset?

by **06hawkalum** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 18:10:57

Absolutely not, for two reasons:

1. Trump probably will be dead in four years.

2. He never wanted to be POTUS, he wanted free publicity for the Trump News Network.

I am starting to think that he will lose, actually concede, and then move ahead with making bank.

by **Monkeyboy** » Wed Oct 21, 2020 18:12:20

I think he'll start his own news channel, which I think he was already talking about, and try to set himself up as the leader of some kind of 3rd party or a Rush Limbaugh-like truth teller. Basically, he will be milking his supporters for whatever he can get.

#alwaysBgrifting

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