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It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Oct 28, 2020 16:10:03

Monkeyboy wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:I wonder if anyone left stranded in Nebraska yesterday changed their vote. Probably not I guess.



Probably strengthened their attachment to him. I MUST love Trump if I'm willing to nearly freeze to death to see his rally.

The alternative would lead to so much cognitive dissonance that they might explode.


When I thought about it--if I were to attend a political rally for Biden, would I switch my vote to Trump if I were stranded? And I realized I would not.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby traderdave » Wed Oct 28, 2020 16:10:51

Given the COVID-19 response that we have all been witness to the last ten months, it is really any surprise that Trump couldn't figure out a way to his supporters back to their cars? They all deserve each other.

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby slugsrbad » Wed Oct 28, 2020 16:10:52

Nate Silver wrote:So we've gotten two live-caller national polls fully post-debate and they're Biden +12 (CNN) and Biden +11 (CNBC/Hart/POS).
Brian Stelter wrote:Brand new CNN polling: "Among likely voters, 54% back Biden and 42% Trump."
@JennAgiesta
says the poll offers "no indication that Trump's four-year-long campaign for reelection has managed to garner him substantial new supporters..."


Nate Silver wrote:Just some random thoughts here:

1. Both these polls showed good results for Biden before, so that's a silver lining for Trump.
2. At the same time, his recent improvements in our national poll average has relied on a lot of low-quality polls.


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 27110?s=20

Link to the Stelter tweet: https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status ... 76265?s=20
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby momadance » Wed Oct 28, 2020 16:11:50

Monkeyboy wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:I wonder if anyone left stranded in Nebraska yesterday changed their vote. Probably not I guess.



Probably strengthened their attachment to him. I MUST love Trump if I'm willing to nearly freeze to death to see his rally.

The alternative would lead to so much cognitive dissonance that they might explode.


These people walked to 5 miles to school and back each day, uphill both ways, in snow.

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Oct 28, 2020 16:30:33

momadance wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:I wonder if anyone left stranded in Nebraska yesterday changed their vote. Probably not I guess.



Probably strengthened their attachment to him. I MUST love Trump if I'm willing to nearly freeze to death to see his rally.

The alternative would lead to so much cognitive dissonance that they might explode.


These people walked to 5 miles to school and back each day, uphill both ways, in snow.


Doubt it. Anyway, these days they're riding golf carts to go down the block.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby CalvinBall » Wed Oct 28, 2020 16:30:39

Houshphandzadeh wrote:it's frustrating to me that Trump didn't actually close travel from China and Biden never pointed it out. there were tons of loopholes including travel from HK being totally unrestricted. American nationals returning from China weren't tested and tracked at all upon return; some 30k+ people came from China after measures were announced. it seemed like a good opportunity to point out that Trump traffics in xenophobia without even bothering to follow up on the practical considerations


yes. this.

it was a useless measure bc it was not even a half measure.

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby JFLNYC » Wed Oct 28, 2020 16:34:01

CalvinBall wrote:
Houshphandzadeh wrote:it's frustrating to me that Trump didn't actually close travel from China and Biden never pointed it out. there were tons of loopholes including travel from HK being totally unrestricted. American nationals returning from China weren't tested and tracked at all upon return; some 30k+ people came from China after measures were announced. it seemed like a good opportunity to point out that Trump traffics in xenophobia without even bothering to follow up on the practical considerations


yes. this.

it was a useless measure bc it was not even a half measure.


Also frustrating that he never asked Trump: "And did you do anything else?"
Jamie

"A man who tells lies . . . merely hides the truth. But a man who tells half-lies has forgotten where he put it."

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Squire » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:20:28

Assuming that the denominator is total votes cast (and not total eligible voters), what percentage has already been cast?

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Bucky » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:27:20

um...100?

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Wolfgang622 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:32:31

FL now down to 62/38 on 538.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Squire » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:32:45

Bucky wrote:um...100?


I'll be more precise. Assuming the denominator is total votes that have already been cast or will ultimately be cast.

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby 06hawkalum » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:35:47

Wolfgang622 wrote:FL now down to 62/38 on 538.


Good thing Biden doesn’t need FL. Would be nice to have though in order for him to essentially wrap things up on election night.

I never expected him to win FL. I do expect him to win PA, MI, and WI and therefore the election.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby slugsrbad » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:39:39

Wolfgang622 wrote:FL now down to 62/38 on 538.


I actually see it as 61/39, in case your bladder isn't completely empty yet :-D
Quick Google shows that GoGo is wrong with regards to the Kiwi and the Banana.

Doll Is Mine wrote:This Ellen DeGeneres look alike on ESPN is annoying. Who the hell is he?

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby MoBettle » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:40:30

JFLNYC wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:
Houshphandzadeh wrote:it's frustrating to me that Trump didn't actually close travel from China and Biden never pointed it out. there were tons of loopholes including travel from HK being totally unrestricted. American nationals returning from China weren't tested and tracked at all upon return; some 30k+ people came from China after measures were announced. it seemed like a good opportunity to point out that Trump traffics in xenophobia without even bothering to follow up on the practical considerations


yes. this.

it was a useless measure bc it was not even a half measure.


Also frustrating that he never asked Trump: "And did you do anything else?"


Also the original case on the eastern part of the US came from Europe...
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Bucky » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:41:37

Squire wrote:
Bucky wrote:um...100?


I'll be more precise. Assuming the denominator is total votes that have already been cast or will ultimately be cast.


based on 2016 turnout I think we're above 50% at this point.

75 million votes cast so far, as of thursday morning. 49% of registered voters.

139 million voted in 2016. So that's 54%. But we'll surely get more than that this time around.

(EDIT: for 2016 I only added the top two in the first hit I saw and i forgot about the third party jawns)
Last edited by Bucky on Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:47:52, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby slugsrbad » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:41:39

He tweets too much and I'm too lazy, but Nate Silver speculates that we will see more high quality polling at the end of the week. If you look at the top 7 Florida polls they are all from B and below firms (according to 538's grading). Just keep your nose to the grindstone and let's win this thing. I'm going to do literature drops on Saturday and Sunday to try and reach some final voters in Arizona.
Quick Google shows that GoGo is wrong with regards to the Kiwi and the Banana.

Doll Is Mine wrote:This Ellen DeGeneres look alike on ESPN is annoying. Who the hell is he?

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby MoBettle » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:41:47

@NateSilver538
There's so many polls today that it's hard to string together a tidy narrative, and you can cherry pick your way to a few better results for Trump/Republicans here and there. But overall a lot of data and most of it quite good for Biden and Democratic congressional candidates.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby 06hawkalum » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:43:08

slugsrbad wrote:
Wolfgang622 wrote:FL now down to 62/38 on 538.


I actually see it as 61/39, in case your bladder isn't completely empty yet :-D


File this under: “Florida never ceases to disappoint liberals.”

Pretty much it boils down to The Villages keeping FL red in many election cycles.

With that said, I would rather my preferred candidate to have a 61% chance of winning an important swing state with six days left, rather than a 39% chance.

That’s just me though :-D
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Bucky » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:44:53

Wolfgang622 wrote:FL now down to 62/38 on 538.


for biden?

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby slugsrbad » Wed Oct 28, 2020 17:47:05

Bucky wrote:
Wolfgang622 wrote:FL now down to 62/38 on 538.


for biden?


Yes.
Quick Google shows that GoGo is wrong with regards to the Kiwi and the Banana.

Doll Is Mine wrote:This Ellen DeGeneres look alike on ESPN is annoying. Who the hell is he?

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