It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby thephan » Wed Oct 28, 2020 18:16:35

slugsrbad wrote:
Bucky wrote:
Wolfgang622 wrote:FL now down to 62/38 on 538.


for biden?


Yes.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... t/florida/
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby JFLNYC » Wed Oct 28, 2020 18:18:41

Supreme Court Won’t Speed a Do-Over on Pennsylvania’s Ballot Deadlines

Huge! R's can't block the extension now!

Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who joined the court on Tuesday and who might have broken an earlier deadlock in the case, did not cast a vote. A court spokeswoman said Justice Barrett “did not participate in the consideration of this motion because of the need for a prompt resolution of it and because she has not had time to fully review the parties’ filings.”
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby jamiethekiller » Wed Oct 28, 2020 19:13:54

Last election(60%) was the highest VEP since 2008(62%) and the second highest since 2000(60%). I'm not sure how much more the voting electorate has in the tank.

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby slugsrbad » Wed Oct 28, 2020 19:23:10

jamiethekiller wrote:Last election(60%) was the highest VEP since 2008(62%) and the second highest since 2000(60%). I'm not sure how much more the voting electorate has in the tank.


Checking the math about 38-40%?
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby jamiethekiller » Wed Oct 28, 2020 19:41:43

I'm not on my comp or I'd look closer. Was shocked that 2016 had such high voting numbers, though.

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Squire » Wed Oct 28, 2020 20:24:17

slugsrbad wrote:
jamiethekiller wrote:Last election(60%) was the highest VEP since 2008(62%) and the second highest since 2000(60%). I'm not sure how much more the voting electorate has in the tank.


Checking the math about 38-40%?


I found a pencil and some scratch paper....this math checks out

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Oct 28, 2020 20:35:38

JFLNYC wrote:Supreme Court Won’t Speed a Do-Over on Pennsylvania’s Ballot Deadlines

Huge! R's can't block the extension now!

Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who joined the court on Tuesday and who might have broken an earlier deadlock in the case, did not cast a vote. A court spokeswoman said Justice Barrett “did not participate in the consideration of this motion because of the need for a prompt resolution of it and because she has not had time to fully review the parties’ filings.”


It takes 4 justices to agree to review a case, right? I'm surprised they didn't get 4 votes.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Oct 28, 2020 20:36:36

Squire wrote:
slugsrbad wrote:
jamiethekiller wrote:Last election(60%) was the highest VEP since 2008(62%) and the second highest since 2000(60%). I'm not sure how much more the voting electorate has in the tank.


Checking the math about 38-40%?


I found a pencil and some scratch paper....this math checks out


I was going to use my calculator, but it's solar powered and it's nighttime.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby stevemc » Wed Oct 28, 2020 20:36:45

Monkeyboy wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:Supreme Court Won’t Speed a Do-Over on Pennsylvania’s Ballot Deadlines

Huge! R's can't block the extension now!

Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who joined the court on Tuesday and who might have broken an earlier deadlock in the case, did not cast a vote. A court spokeswoman said Justice Barrett “did not participate in the consideration of this motion because of the need for a prompt resolution of it and because she has not had time to fully review the parties’ filings.”


It takes 4 justices to agree to review a case, right? I'm surprised they didn't get 4 votes.


They did - it was deadlocked at 4-4

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Oct 28, 2020 20:41:13

stevemc wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:Supreme Court Won’t Speed a Do-Over on Pennsylvania’s Ballot Deadlines

Huge! R's can't block the extension now!

Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who joined the court on Tuesday and who might have broken an earlier deadlock in the case, did not cast a vote. A court spokeswoman said Justice Barrett “did not participate in the consideration of this motion because of the need for a prompt resolution of it and because she has not had time to fully review the parties’ filings.”


It takes 4 justices to agree to review a case, right? I'm surprised they didn't get 4 votes.


They did - it was deadlocked at 4-4


Hmmm, so I looked it up before I posted and my source said this:

Unlike all other federal courts, the Supreme Court has discretion to decide which cases it will hear. The Supreme Court gets thousands of petitions for certiorari, but only issues a writ in a fraction of cases. The Court will only issue a writ if four of the nine Justices vote to do so. Justices usually take the importance of a given case and the need to issue a final decision before deciding to grant certiorari. If four Justices do not agree to grant certiorari, the petition is denied. If a case is "denied cert", the decision of the lower court is final.


So I thought 4 votes was all they needed.


http://adacourse.org/courtconcepts/scot ... %20do%20so.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby jamiethekiller » Wed Oct 28, 2020 20:52:24

Monkeyboy wrote:
Squire wrote:
slugsrbad wrote:
jamiethekiller wrote:Last election(60%) was the highest VEP since 2008(62%) and the second highest since 2000(60%). I'm not sure how much more the voting electorate has in the tank.


Checking the math about 38-40%?


I found a pencil and some scratch paper....this math checks out


I was going to use my calculator, but it's solar powered and it's nighttime.


Don't think you guys get it.

60% of eligible voters in 2016 voted. Highest of the last 20 years is 62%. To buckys point of more votes this year, I'm not sure how many more people are out there that want to vote. Another 5 or 6m over 2016(which is a lot if it's in the right states,but means Jack shit if it's CA or NY or MA)

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby slugsrbad » Wed Oct 28, 2020 20:59:46

jamiethekiller wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:
Squire wrote:
slugsrbad wrote:
jamiethekiller wrote:Last election(60%) was the highest VEP since 2008(62%) and the second highest since 2000(60%). I'm not sure how much more the voting electorate has in the tank.


Checking the math about 38-40%?


I found a pencil and some scratch paper....this math checks out


I was going to use my calculator, but it's solar powered and it's nighttime.


Don't think you guys get it.

60% of eligible voters in 2016 voted. Highest of the last 20 years is 62%. To buckys point of more votes this year, I'm not sure how many more people are out there that want to vote. Another 5 or 6m over 2016(which is a lot if it's in the right states,but means Jack shit if it's CA or NY or MA)


I mean this was an obvious Bucky'd moment. If your tank holds 100% and you've used 60-62% in the past then you theoretically have 38-40% left in the tank. Of course with 60-62% being the highwater mark of efficiency in the past, the question is then how much can we squeeze out before there is the inevitable waste/amount left in the tank.

TL;DR these were all sarcastic responses.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Oct 28, 2020 21:02:08

I think most people expect it to end up in the 150s, so right around 50% of votes are cast

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Wolfgang622 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 21:29:43

jamiethekiller wrote:60% of eligible voters in 2016 voted. Highest of the last 20 years is 62%. To buckys point of more votes this year, I'm not sure how many more people are out there that want to vote. Another 5 or 6m over 2016(which is a lot if it's in the right states,but means Jack shit if it's CA or NY or MA)


This strikes me as a valid point, but have their been any studies done on the distribution of voter growth? Should we assume proportionate growth? Probably not, just based on the growth or decline of state populations I imagine.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Oct 28, 2020 21:33:23

If I understand correctly, states do early voting differently and report numbers differently. (Do mail in/absentee ballots count as early votes? I think it depends on the state.) For example, I've seen reports that in Texas, early votes account for 90% of the number of people who voted in total in 2016. That seems to suggest that in Texas at least, we're looking at very high participation rates, even given the fact that the population in Texas is increasing rapidly.

Keep in mind in some states, early voting ends as soon as Friday. Few, if any states, offer early voting on Monday. On the other hand, I've heard that on average, 4 million people nationally are voting per day.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Oct 28, 2020 22:39:00

jamiethekiller wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:
Squire wrote:
slugsrbad wrote:
jamiethekiller wrote:Last election(60%) was the highest VEP since 2008(62%) and the second highest since 2000(60%). I'm not sure how much more the voting electorate has in the tank.


Checking the math about 38-40%?


I found a pencil and some scratch paper....this math checks out


I was going to use my calculator, but it's solar powered and it's nighttime.


Don't think you guys get it.

60% of eligible voters in 2016 voted. Highest of the last 20 years is 62%. To buckys point of more votes this year, I'm not sure how many more people are out there that want to vote. Another 5 or 6m over 2016(which is a lot if it's in the right states,but means Jack shit if it's CA or NY or MA)


I was making a joke, which you probably didn't get.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby Squire » Thu Oct 29, 2020 07:58:01

I'm not surprised Nicklaus is a Trump Supporter. Even a little bit. A touch surprised that he was willing to go forward with a public endorsement.

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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby thephan » Thu Oct 29, 2020 08:35:16

Squire wrote:I'm not surprised Nicklaus is a Trump Supporter. Even a little bit. A touch surprised that he was willing to go forward with a public endorsement.


an 80 year old golfer supports a guy who hires course designers and sells branded golf equipment sounds about right.

I took a look and his firm only did 1: Trump Golf Links Ferry Point, Bronx, NY 2015
Last edited by thephan on Thu Oct 29, 2020 08:37:44, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby thephan » Thu Oct 29, 2020 08:36:06

On average over 100M eligible voters sit out elections, that is shockingly high
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Re: It is simple. Make a plan and vote - Politics Thread

Postby JFLNYC » Thu Oct 29, 2020 08:58:29

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