Houshphandzadeh wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:Prediction: If the dems win the Senate and Presidency, they will not move to add justices to the court. Instead, they will go after Kavanaugh for lying under oath. Having him impeached would move the court to 5-4 GOP with a reasonable Roberts as the tiebreaker. They can sell the move as not stealing the court because it's still 5-4 and they are just getting back that justice spot stolen by McConnell. The base will go along because it gets the court back to some reasonable level and the GOP won't be able to complain too much given that Kavanaugh clearly lied under oath and they still have the majority. There is much less political cost to the move and it rights the injustice of a felon being on the court.

is there any reason to think Dem leadership cares about the Supreme Court enough to spend political capital either packing it or impeaching a justice? Feinstein already tipped her hand here and the rest seem content to let Barrett through. Roe vs Wade being struck down and making abortion a state by state issue is a huge albatross off their neck. we know they don't care about civil liberties and will welcome an excuse from the courts to punt indefinitely on moving to a better healthcare system. I'm not sure a conservative court is a big deal to them

06hawkalum wrote:

stevemc wrote:

06hawkalum wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:

06hawkalum wrote:538 has Biden's chances of victory back up to his high water mark of 88%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

Recognize that if it was Trump who had the 88% chance, none of us would think Biden had a chance at the upset victory. Our tails would already be tucked in anticipation of the ramming we would be receiving in eight days time.

You're just saying that because you need to tell yourself it can't happen again. Whatever gets you through this next week is fine with me..

No, I am saying it, because it is true. Look at how anxious we are about a Biden loss despite him being an 88% favorite to win. If his odds were 12% the teeth gnashing here would be epic.

I recognize there is a very outside (1 in 8) chance that Trump pulls this off, but it is ridiculous that some of us are acting as though this is the LIKELY outcome.

I feel good at 88% as well but I still feel like something underhanded happened in 2016 that looked like a nearly implausible win for Trump and it came to fruition. I won't believe it until Biden's inauguration day at this point.

True, I still question whether Clinton truly lost PA, WI, and MI. It has always seemed fishy.

Houshphandzadeh wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:Prediction: If the dems win the Senate and Presidency, they will not move to add justices to the court. Instead, they will go after Kavanaugh for lying under oath. Having him impeached would move the court to 5-4 GOP with a reasonable Roberts as the tiebreaker. They can sell the move as not stealing the court because it's still 5-4 and they are just getting back that justice spot stolen by McConnell. The base will go along because it gets the court back to some reasonable level and the GOP won't be able to complain too much given that Kavanaugh clearly lied under oath and they still have the majority. There is much less political cost to the move and it rights the injustice of a felon being on the court.

is there any reason to think Dem leadership cares about the Supreme Court enough to spend political capital either packing it or impeaching a justice? Feinstein already tipped her hand here and the rest seem content to let Barrett through. Roe vs Wade being struck down and making abortion a state by state issue is a huge albatross off their neck. we know they don't care about civil liberties and will welcome an excuse from the courts to punt indefinitely on moving to a better healthcare system. I'm not sure a conservative court is a big deal to them

Augustus wrote:

Houshphandzadeh wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:Prediction: If the dems win the Senate and Presidency, they will not move to add justices to the court. Instead, they will go after Kavanaugh for lying under oath. Having him impeached would move the court to 5-4 GOP with a reasonable Roberts as the tiebreaker. They can sell the move as not stealing the court because it's still 5-4 and they are just getting back that justice spot stolen by McConnell. The base will go along because it gets the court back to some reasonable level and the GOP won't be able to complain too much given that Kavanaugh clearly lied under oath and they still have the majority. There is much less political cost to the move and it rights the injustice of a felon being on the court.

is there any reason to think Dem leadership cares about the Supreme Court enough to spend political capital either packing it or impeaching a justice? Feinstein already tipped her hand here and the rest seem content to let Barrett through. Roe vs Wade being struck down and making abortion a state by state issue is a huge albatross off their neck. we know they don't care about civil liberties and will welcome an excuse from the courts to punt indefinitely on moving to a better healthcare system. I'm not sure a conservative court is a big deal to them

Sad but true. I think Schumer and Pelosi welcome it. They can fundraise off it and use it as an excuse not to legislate. It won't be the daughters of rich people in liberal enclaves who die.

National Daily Black Likely Voter Job Approval For
@POTUS
- October 19-23, 2020

Mon 10/19 - 25%
Tue 10/20 - 24%
Wed 10/21 - 31%
Thu 10/22 - 37%
Fri 10/23 - 46%

JFLNYC wrote:That 88% doesn’t factor in stealing an election. I have absolutely no doubt Biden will win the popular vote and little doubt he’ll win the EV if it’s handled legitimately. But once you factor in Trump’s unscrupulousness, the willingness of Republican governors to do his bidding, Russian influence, a packed Federal judiciary and SCOTUS, the Fox propaganda machine, etc., it’s incredibly naive to think 88% is the real measure of whether Trump will be defeated. Factoring in everything it’s probably a lot closer to 50/50 and if that doesn’t concern any decent person you’re just whistling in the dark.

New @DCCC poll of #TX03:

Seikaly (D) 44
Taylor (R-inc.) 42
Claytor (L) 8
Undecided/Refused 6

Biden +11 after Trump +14 in ‘16

(Oct. 19-22; 432 LVs; live calls to cells, IVR to landlines; +/-4.7%)

slugsrbad wrote:

New @DCCC poll of #TX03:

Seikaly (D) 44
Taylor (R-inc.) 42
Claytor (L) 8
Undecided/Refused 6

Biden +11 after Trump +14 in ‘16

(Oct. 19-22; 432 LVs; live calls to cells, IVR to landlines; +/-4.7%)

Internal poll and all that but wow.

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/statu ... 26690?s=21

JUburton wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:

New @DCCC poll of #TX03:

Seikaly (D) 44
Taylor (R-inc.) 42
Claytor (L) 8
Undecided/Refused 6

Biden +11 after Trump +14 in ‘16

(Oct. 19-22; 432 LVs; live calls to cells, IVR to landlines; +/-4.7%)

Internal poll and all that but wow.

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/statu ... 26690?s=21

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status ... 1884919812

NYT Texas poll at 1pm too

Biden leads Trump by five percentage points, 48% to 43%, across the 12 predominantly suburban Texas congressional districts that the Cook Political Report has rated as competitive. These districts voted for the president by eight points in 2016.”

MoBettle wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:That 88% doesn’t factor in stealing an election. I have absolutely no doubt Biden will win the popular vote and little doubt he’ll win the EV if it’s handled legitimately. But once you factor in Trump’s unscrupulousness, the willingness of Republican governors to do his bidding, Russian influence, a packed Federal judiciary and SCOTUS, the Fox propaganda machine, etc., it’s incredibly naive to think 88% is the real measure of whether Trump will be defeated. Factoring in everything it’s probably a lot closer to 50/50 and if that doesn’t concern any decent person you’re just whistling in the dark.

I would say there is a more than minimal chance of this while also saying it doesn’t take the race to 50/50 without a major scandal and/or polling error. Like if you told me there is even a 15% chance trump subverts our democracy I would say that is extremely concerning but his odds would also still be worse than they were in 2016. PA, WI and MI all have dem governors fwiw.

slugsrbad wrote:

New @DCCC poll of #TX03:

Seikaly (D) 44
Taylor (R-inc.) 42
Claytor (L) 8
Undecided/Refused 6

Biden +11 after Trump +14 in ‘16

(Oct. 19-22; 432 LVs; live calls to cells, IVR to landlines; +/-4.7%)

Internal poll and all that but wow.

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/statu ... 26690?s=21

slugsrbad wrote:

JUburton wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:

New @DCCC poll of #TX03:

Seikaly (D) 44
Taylor (R-inc.) 42
Claytor (L) 8
Undecided/Refused 6

Biden +11 after Trump +14 in ‘16

(Oct. 19-22; 432 LVs; live calls to cells, IVR to landlines; +/-4.7%)

Internal poll and all that but wow.

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/statu ... 26690?s=21

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status ... 1884919812

NYT Texas poll at 1pm too

Trump +4, it is 47/43.

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/13 ... 80672?s=21

JFLNYC wrote:

MoBettle wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:That 88% doesn’t factor in stealing an election. I have absolutely no doubt Biden will win the popular vote and little doubt he’ll win the EV if it’s handled legitimately. But once you factor in Trump’s unscrupulousness, the willingness of Republican governors to do his bidding, Russian influence, a packed Federal judiciary and SCOTUS, the Fox propaganda machine, etc., it’s incredibly naive to think 88% is the real measure of whether Trump will be defeated. Factoring in everything it’s probably a lot closer to 50/50 and if that doesn’t concern any decent person you’re just whistling in the dark.

I would say there is a more than minimal chance of this while also saying it doesn’t take the race to 50/50 without a major scandal and/or polling error. Like if you told me there is even a 15% chance trump subverts our democracy I would say that is extremely concerning but his odds would also still be worse than they were in 2016. PA, WI and MI all have dem governors fwiw.

Of course we’re both guessing at an unquantifiable number but I have to disagree with you about his odds being worse than in 2016. He’s in the White House now with at least some of the machinery of the state supporting him, e.g., many more conservative Federal judges, a clearly conservative SCOTUS with 3 justices he appointed, a compliant AG, friendly governors and virtually all other Republican politicians who live in fear of his wrath, etc.).

If the voting itself is really close and, for example, one or two states make the difference, it’s scarily easy to think up a scenario whereby Trump’s team pursues some legal strategy which results in the SCOTUS deciding the election, as they did in 2000. If that court (which was unquestionably less dogmatically conservative than the current court) could find a legal rationale to stop the counting of votes in Florida in 2000 it’s certainly not difficult to see the current SCOTUS - with 3 of Trump’s appointees on it — for example, stopping the counting of mail-in votes for some weak reason.

Of course it’s only my opinion, but those new unquantifiable levers at his disposal are what makes the ultimate result of the election a tossup.