jerseyhoya wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

CFP wrote:And saying “we are 9 days out” is just not the best way to look at things. A historic number of people have already voted. The election has been going on for weeks.

As of yesterday's updates, cumulative turnout in the 17 states most competitive in 2016 (ranging from NM to IA) passed 50% of 2016 total votes

I have no doubt there will be more votes in 2020 than in 2016, for no other reason than the population goes up every year. Having said that, I don't know how one can project from early voter turnout what the turnout this year will be - lots and lots of people are voting early who never have before, there is no reliable data to therefore compare this year to, so what will matter is turnout on election day. How many people will actually come out versus will have already voted?

I expect a larger turnout this year. Probably that is a good sign for Biden. But... you never know.

I agree trying to make straight line comparisons based off past years to this year using early voter turnout to predict overall turnout is a fool's errand.

But I'd guess if you add in early votes from yesterday and ballots already cast/in the mail, we're north of 50% of votes that will be cast in the states that matter. It's probably higher than 50% in some (Texas is at 80% of 2016 turnout, Georgia and North Carolina are at 65%) and lower in others, notably PA. So that's a lot of people who can't change their minds. And while persuadable types might be more likely to hold onto their ballots or push off voting till later or Election Day itself, lots of people who if something big happened could change their mind have already voted. It's getting late early for Mr. Trump.

Those figures in TX and GA are incredible, especially given the GOP's voter suppression efforts in both states.

Seems to bode really well for Biden turning both blue.

They could hit Hilary because the media really hated Hilary and did it for them. That's one of the real untold stories of 2016. Hilary hate was real, and much of it was generated by mainstream media. We have of course learned that a lot of those guys were pretty misogynistic thanks to Me Too.

There are a lot of anti-Kennedy ads running in my area. I hope Van Drew doesn’t win.

Biden will be a much worse president than Hillary would have but she had almost all of his flaws as a candidate (long history, “health” issues, corruption charges) and a huge list of additional ones.

Somebody asked about Trafalgar earlier-they don’t poll on who people are voting for, they ask who people think is going to win.

Yeah and some of Hillary’s “issues” were actually investigated by trusted governmental authorities. Like if instead of tweeting at the justice department Trump actually got someone in the government over the last 4 years to write a formal report on Hunter Biden or voting issues or whatever and provided that along with access to the information they based the report on, CNN would cover it. Instead he’s just doing the bare minimum and asking everyone else to do the actual work including figure out what the heck he’s talking about. So there’s literally nothing to report on besides “president accuses opponent of this, there is no evidence to support it.”

Its not impossible that Biden did something shady in Ukraine or there’s voter fraud or whatever, but I’m not sure why sufficient independent voters would just accept it at this point if they haven’t already. He has all the resources of the US government at his disposal and the fact he’s not using them to prove his claims sure indicates there’s nothing much there and people in the government don’t want to go to jail for writing a fraudulent report to help their boss who might be getting replaced soon.

Doubters should just pretend it's Beth or Bernie instead of Biden and find their optimism.

How about pretending it's not Trump

One important factor in comparing 2016 to 2020 polls is the percentage support each candidate has, not just the gap. There's a difference between 51-48 and 43-40.

Also the 548 model is back to 87% for Biden, which is as high as it's been.

CalvinBall wrote:Say the o/u is like 146.5 million votes cast. Probably set it a hair or two higher even.

is that fanduels?

TenuredVulture wrote:One important factor in comparing 2016 to 2020 polls is the percentage support each candidate has, not just the gap. There's a difference between 51-48 and 43-40.

Also the 548 model is back to 87% for Biden, which is as high as it's been.

At this point I would be shocked if Trump won legitimately. He isnt even trying to win at this point.

CalvinBall wrote:Also Biden has double the lead HRC had at this point!

By what metric?

Wolfgang622 wrote:On the other hand the "Biden has an 8.9% national lead" is a meaningless line. Biden's lead is equal to his lead in the tipping point state. That lead right now, in PA, is 5.8%. Sounds good. In 2016, on election day, that lead was 3.7%. Ten days from the election in 2016, which is where we are now, that lead was 5.7% - exactly where we are now.

TenuredVulture wrote:One important factor in comparing 2016 to 2020 polls is the percentage support each candidate has, not just the gap. There's a difference between 51-48 and 43-40.

This is true.

Just voted!

The amount of bed wetting could fill a Great Lake. Simply exhausting. I think it’s healthy to simply vote and get others to vote then let the chips fall. Is it good for your soul to fret endlessly?

It's called a discussion board for a reason

jamiethekiller wrote:It's called a discussion board for a reason

More like a depression board.

I think phan is right, but it isn't easy to turn off anxiety. And the stakes are pretty high (though I don't think it's an existential threat to American democracy) and no one wants a repeat of 2016.

Wolfgang622 wrote:538 model is slowly but perceptibly moving in the wrong direction in GA, NC, FL, AZ, and PA.

Trump gonna win.

Today: PA 50.4% Biden winning 5.7: Sept 25: 49.7% Biden winning 4.8
Today: Arizona 48.7% Biden winning 2.6: Sept 25 48.4% Biden winning 3.5
Today: Florida 49.1% Biden winning 2.4: Sept 25 47.9% Biden winning 1.7
Today: NC 49.2% Biden winning 2.6: Sept 25 47.5% Biden winning 1.1
Today: Georgia 47.6% Biden winning 0.4: 45.9% Trump winning 1.1

So, he's doing worse (but still winning) in Arizona. The others he improved in the last month.

Biden now leading in TX

Not unreasonable to spend emotional and psychic capital over the future of our nation.