traderdave wrote:

jamiethekiller wrote:Well, I'd side on 16 more than 12 since the same guy is running in 20 as it was in 16. The graphic would be much more complete if it had 2008 in there to indicate if the candidate is the one pushing the trend or if it's just a polling artifact.

Also, Joe Biden is as bad as Hillary.

In what way?

Trump is outwardly racist, xenophobic, sexist, etc. He's mishandled a pandemic and has helped kill thousands of people. He's one of the least favorable presidents of all time. He's had wave after wave of awful attempts at legislation.

Yet here we are 9 days out and the gap is closing in a race that a corpse should be able to beat over Trump. Instead a small amount of american people chose to run the last remaining face of NAFTA and a collaborator of crime laws that have only helped divide the country to this point. Instead of making attempts to reach out to an attainable demographic(lefty progressives) and he's spent more time trying to convince Jersey to vote for him. He's seemingly had to been dragged kicking and screaming to support very popular progressive polices. Hell, he even has the same dumb nepotism problems that people have been killing trump on for the past 4 years.

Yea, he's miles better than Trump an easy check mark for me, but for a lot of people in the country it really isnt.

It's not really closing though

CalvinBall wrote:It's not really closing though

Precisely. Did I make that 3:00 a.m. post in vain? Do facts not matter any longer?

And saying “we are 9 days out” is just not the best way to look at things. A historic number of people have already voted. The election has been going on for weeks.

CalvinBall wrote:It's not really closing though

If Biden won the popular vote by 8.9% like the 538 model has right now it would be the largest victory since Reagan.

CFP wrote:And saying “we are 9 days out” is just not the best way to look at things. A historic number of people have already voted. The election has been going on for weeks.

Bingo

CFP wrote:And saying “we are 9 days out” is just not the best way to look at things. A historic number of people have already voted. The election has been going on for weeks.

but NOT ONE undecided has voted yet!!!

Early record voting doesn't mean that were gonna have a record turnout overall or for either party. Most states have never had the opportunity to early vote like now or a pandemic happening.

jamiethekiller wrote:Early record voting doesn't mean that were gonna have a record turnout overall or for either party. Most states have never had the opportunity to early vote like now or a pandemic happening.

Some counties are starting surpass their 2016 totals of all votes cast. 2016 had the highest turnout as far as total voters. 2020 will surely pass it.

06hawkalum wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:It's not really closing though

Precisely. Did I make that 3:00 a.m. post in vain? Do facts not matter any longer?

I mean, look, my outlook is anxiety-ridden and perhaps unlikely.

On the other hand the "Biden has an 8.9% national lead" is a meaningless line. Biden's lead is equal to his lead in the tipping point state. That lead right now, in PA, is 5.8%. Sounds good. In 2016, on election day, that lead was 3.7%. Ten days from the election in 2016, which is where we are now, that lead was 5.7% - exactly where we are now.

Trump had a quiet week (for him) in the last week of the 2016 election, which meant that not only was there a polling error in 16 on election day, but the polls moved toward him in the final ten days in PA.

What worries me so much is that Biden reminds me of a Democrat Mitt Romney: congenial, perfectly plausible as a candidate, but inspiring in the-motivate-me-to-vote to no one. Meanwhile, you have a candidate in Trump, like Obama, who inspires people, as much as those of us in the lefty bubble here do not want to admit this. You can see it in the way people react to him, in the way they get so angry when he is attacked and the prospect of him losing becomes real. Someone on here during the last debate commented about Trump's constantly playing the victim, not understanding why people don't call him on it. That is not just Trump being Trump, that is calculated. He is speaking the feelings of his voters. They feel attacked, cornered, threatened, they see the country they think of as "theirs" and their children's falling into the hands of socialists, people of color, immigrants, women, gays, etc. They WILL lash out and they will do so with FORCE.

Biden needs to hold on in PA but this will not be easy.

The 8.9% thing was more in response to the idea that he’s not a good candidate or he’s not winning by enough. If you go by the amount of people that are projected to vote for him he’s the most popular candidate in over 30 years, in the most partisan time in history.

Trump can have small gains but he still needs a Comey letter style scandal and/or a much larger polling error to get into 2016 range. And if it’s a scandal he probably needs it to happen soon, especially with all the votes being locked in. As it stands now trump is saying all of that but he’s also been saying it for like 5 years at this point and it hasn’t stopped him from being in the worst position an incumbent has been in in decades. He needs something else to happen.

The weirdest thing to me is that Biden absolutely destroyed several candidates once the race got outside of Bernie Sanders’ perfectly aligned electorate, and yet many apparently believe Biden can’t win.

CFP wrote:And saying “we are 9 days out” is just not the best way to look at things. A historic number of people have already voted. The election has been going on for weeks.

As of yesterday's updates, cumulative turnout in the 17 states most competitive in 2016 (ranging from NM to IA) passed 50% of 2016 total votes

jerseyhoya wrote:

CFP wrote:And saying “we are 9 days out” is just not the best way to look at things. A historic number of people have already voted. The election has been going on for weeks.

As of yesterday's updates, cumulative turnout in the 17 states most competitive in 2016 (ranging from NM to IA) passed 50% of 2016 total votes

I have no doubt there will be more votes in 2020 than in 2016, for no other reason than the population goes up every year. Having said that, I don't know how one can project from early voter turnout what the turnout this year will be - lots and lots of people are voting early who never have before, there is no reliable data to therefore compare this year to, so what will matter is turnout on election day. How many people will actually come out versus will have already voted?

I expect a larger turnout this year. Probably that is a good sign for Biden. But... you never know.

Wolfgang622 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

CFP wrote:And saying “we are 9 days out” is just not the best way to look at things. A historic number of people have already voted. The election has been going on for weeks.

As of yesterday's updates, cumulative turnout in the 17 states most competitive in 2016 (ranging from NM to IA) passed 50% of 2016 total votes

I have no doubt there will be more votes in 2020 than in 2016, for no other reason than the population goes up every year. Having said that, I don't know how one can project from early voter turnout what the turnout this year will be - lots and lots of people are voting early who never have before, there is no reliable data to therefore compare this year to, so what will matter is turnout on election day. How many people will actually come out versus will have already voted?

I expect a larger turnout this year. Probably that is a good sign for Biden. But... you never know.

I agree trying to make straight line comparisons based off past years to this year using early voter turnout to predict overall turnout is a fool's errand.

But I'd guess if you add in early votes from yesterday and ballots already cast/in the mail, we're north of 50% of votes that will be cast in the states that matter. It's probably higher than 50% in some (Texas is at 80% of 2016 turnout, Georgia and North Carolina are at 65%) and lower in others, notably PA. So that's a lot of people who can't change their minds. And while persuadable types might be more likely to hold onto their ballots or push off voting till later or Election Day itself, lots of people who if something big happened could change their mind have already voted. It's getting late early for Mr. Trump.

MoBettle wrote:The 8.9% thing was more in response to the idea that he’s not a good candidate or he’s not winning by enough. If you go by the amount of people that are projected to vote for him he’s the most popular candidate in over 30 years, in the most partisan time in history.

Trump can have small gains but he still needs a Comey letter style scandal and/or a much larger polling error to get into 2016 range. And if it’s a scandal he probably needs it to happen soon, especially with all the votes being locked in. As it stands now trump is saying all of that but he’s also been saying it for like 5 years at this point and it hasn’t stopped him from being in the worst position an incumbent has been in in decades. He needs something else to happen.

He’s trying to make the laptop and the Biden “Worldwide Criminal Conspiracy” this election’s Comey letter but it’s just not sticking as well because it’s so implausible on its face. He wants Barr to indict a Biden or two but, tellingly, even Barr won’t go that far.

I expect that the amount of shit Trump will throw at the wall this week hoping something will stick will be impressive.

Say the o/u is like 146.5 million votes cast. Probably set it a hair or two higher even.

Also Biden has double the lead HRC had at this point! Its not the same election as 2016. Going to be much closer to 2018 imo, maybe even worse for the Republicans because they'll actually lose Senate seats. Look at were they're dumping tons of money. They are deeply on defense here.

JFLNYC wrote:

MoBettle wrote:The 8.9% thing was more in response to the idea that he’s not a good candidate or he’s not winning by enough. If you go by the amount of people that are projected to vote for him he’s the most popular candidate in over 30 years, in the most partisan time in history.

Trump can have small gains but he still needs a Comey letter style scandal and/or a much larger polling error to get into 2016 range. And if it’s a scandal he probably needs it to happen soon, especially with all the votes being locked in. As it stands now trump is saying all of that but he’s also been saying it for like 5 years at this point and it hasn’t stopped him from being in the worst position an incumbent has been in in decades. He needs something else to happen.

He’s trying to make the laptop and the Biden “Worldwide Criminal Conspiracy” this election’s Comey letter but it’s just not sticking as well because it’s so implausible on its face. He wants Barr to indict a Biden or two but, tellingly, even Barr won’t go that far.

I expect that the amount of shit Trump will throw at the wall this week hoping something will stick will be impressive.

Yeah I don’t know how the laptop is supposed to take off. Giuliani hasnt even given a copy of the hard drive to the press right?

It all goes back to how lazy and unfocused they are. They could hit Hillary because there were all these scandals that people had already been talking about for years. Now that they have to create something to hit Biden with they haven’t laid the ground work to convince people that aren’t blindly loyal to them already that this matters. Trump is literally tweeting at the justice department a week before the election asking them to investigate stuff lol.