Wolfgang622 wrote:538 model is slowly but perceptibly moving in the wrong direction in GA, NC, FL, AZ, and PA.

Trump gonna win.

My dude, in fairness you have never believed Biden was going to win. At least you have been consistent with your message of doom.

Have you considered that polls at this point don't mean much with 60,000,000+ votes already cast?

Also, not sure where you are seeing significant "tightening" in any of the states you mentioned:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... nsylvania/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... l/georgia/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... l/arizona/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... l/florida/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... -carolina/

His position in each state has, in actuality, improved in each state since October 1.

Overall, Biden has hovered at 86-88% all month in 538's projections:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

Keep in mind that AZ, NC, GA, and FL don't matter, they would just be icing on the cake.

Biden just needs to win PA, WI, and MI.

Biden is going to win. Hopefully that will help you recover from your 2016-induced PTSD.

Mile long record of being a shitty person Biden: https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/132 ... 11105?s=20

It is just so odd to me how people see this as a lesser of two evils race. Joe Biden might be flawed politician. He may have a voting record that is objectionable... but he is empathetic and a good person. I don't see how any sane person who is not a Trump disciple can vote for 4 more years of this. It honestly boggles my mind.

Anyway, when doing literature drop through central Phoenix I saw a lot of Biden/Harris and Mark Kelly signs. I am sure I was in a more Democrat part of the city but it was very heartening. I saw 0 Trump signs today.

Wolfgang622 wrote:538 model is slowly but perceptibly moving in the wrong direction in GA, NC, FL, AZ, and PA.

Trump gonna win.

Biden is fine. MI WI PA polls all post debate were very strong, +7 and above at a minimum. Those are all the states he needs to win. Hilary wasn’t this far ahead.

Add in GA AZ FL and he’s got so many paths.

I think high turnout is going to confound likely voter models. I think that helps Biden.

Moz is not wrong about recent polling. The Upshot has a feature showing what would happen, using the most recent polling, if the polls were as wrong as they were in 2016. In the last 3 days it’s gone from Biden winning with 309 EV to his winning with 280 EV. Biden may still win, even convincingly, but Moz’ point about recent polling trends is correct. I’ve noticed it, too.

I've also noticed. The 538 model will have Biden gain ground if the polls are the same because time is running out and there's less uncertainty. But over the last few days, Biden has stopped gaining ground and is even losing a little ground, despite time running out. That's because the polls are tightening.

I think Biden had a pretty constant lead for a long time (6% or so) and then there was a period after the first debate and Trump's positive COVID test where a good chunk of the undecideds made up their minds and most went Biden's way. That caused a surge in Biden's numbers. I think now what we're seeing is the rest of the people making up their minds, the ones who weren't so turned off by Trump's debate performance and positive test to have made up their minds earlier. These people are pretty much Reps who never could go to Biden but were reluctant to go with Trump. Trump's last two weeks have been a bit better by Trump's low standards, so those people are now breaking for Trump. But there aren't that many of them, so I think the movement will stop and Biden will enter election day up by 8-9 points. I'm not sure if that's enough or not. Depends where those 9% live.

I have no proof for any of this, but it's my hot take.

Also, something weird is happening in CA.

So if the polling error is as wrong as 2016 and if the polling error favors Trump again Biden still wins. THE SKY IS FALLING!

Unless I missed something Moz has crapped on BIden as a candidate and Biden's chances at every turn. Hope his negativity hasn't influenced too many friends, family and neighbors.

Forecasts have/will tighten a bit. Didn't we all expect that? Sure 538's PA forecast tightened a 2 ticks from Biden's high point. It's still higher than any point from the start until 2 weeks ago. And we're not talking from 53 in 100 to 51. It went from a 1 day high of 88 to 86. DOOMED!

Wolfgang622 wrote:
Trump gonna win.

What are you trying to accomplish by posting the same thing 20 times in a month?

Uncle Milty wrote:So if the polling error is as wrong as 2016 and if the polling error favors Trump again Biden still wins. THE SKY IS FALLING!

Unless I missed something Moz has crapped on BIden as a candidate and Biden's chances at every turn. Hope his negativity hasn't influenced too many friends, family and neighbors.

Forecasts have/will tighten a bit. Didn't we all expect that? Sure 538's PA forecast tightened a 2 ticks from Biden's high point. It's still higher than any point from the start until 2 weeks ago. And we're not talking from 53 in 100 to 51. It went from a 1 day high of 88 to 86. DOOMED!

I think the unspoken point is that, the closer the race, the greater the chance of mischief by Trump whether on the ground or in the courts. The closer the race the worse — and more unpredictable— things are going to be after November 3.

philliesphhan wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:

LastTrain wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Over the past 7 months I've talked to many many people who are crying on the phone. Lt, just because you don't experience it doesn't mean it hasn't been the experience for many others.

Does "many many" equate to more than a fraction of 1% of the US? Assuming the obvious answer is no, our posts remain in harmony.

Wtf?

Never mind. I need to remind myself that cruelty is the point of the death cult that is masquerading as a political party.

I'm trying to figure out which part of it is more absurd: thinking only 1% of people are struggling or thinking 1% (which is roughly 3+ million people in this country) is a big "meh."

Kinda reminds me years ago, there was a commercial during the Phillies game about some charity Halladay had that provides food for needy families. My dad literally got ANGRY at the commercial saying it was #$!&@ and there's not really anyone that needs that kind of help. Whatever false reality conservatives have to create to sleep better at night, I guess.

As I leave near a food pantry, I can tell you first hand that there are many people who for real need that kind of help. Lines outside the center have been longer (and earlier) the past few months than they were in the previous 10 years we've lived here. It is very sad to see.

I think this is a good image to show the recency bias in some of the fears.

Yeah, that's the image that JFLY has referenced a few times

Right, but it seems only the '16 column is mentioned and discussed.

Well, I'd side on 16 more than 12 since the same guy is running in 20 as it was in 16. The graphic would be much more complete if it had 2008 in there to indicate if the candidate is the one pushing the trend or if it's just a polling artifact.

Also, Joe Biden is as bad as Hillary.

jamiethekiller wrote:Well, I'd side on 16 more than 12 since the same guy is running in 20 as it was in 16. The graphic would be much more complete if it had 2008 in there to indicate if the candidate is the one pushing the trend or if it's just a polling artifact.

Also, Joe Biden is as bad as Hillary.

In what way?

jamiethekiller wrote:Well, I'd side on 16 more than 12 since the same guy is running in 20 as it was in 16. The graphic would be much more complete if it had 2008 in there to indicate if the candidate is the one pushing the trend or if it's just a polling artifact.

Also, Joe Biden is as bad as Hillary.

This seems intuitive more than accurate. For example Obama was the same candidate but which party the bias favored flipped in his election years.

This is a couple years old but adds a little more history: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... all-right/

Werthless wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:
Trump gonna win.

What are you trying to accomplish by posting the same thing 20 times in a month?

Reverse jinx, therapy.

Trump is running out of time. A week ago I would have said Trump just needs two clean weeks in the run up to election day to pull this thing out. Now he has less than two. But honestly, his debate was bad of course but for him fine, and I believe polling after each debate in 16 said he'd "lost" the debates handily, but the gap narrowed from the first to the third. Same pattern. He was way too wound up and simultaneously unprepared in the first debate in both 16 and 20, and by the final debate he had calmed down some. He still "lost" by polling, but not as badly. And then he won the election in 16, albeit while losing the popular vote - but by an EV margin that, as I have said before, actually provides him with some breathing room to have an erosion in support in 20 and still win. The polling in 16 concerning his debate performances tells me that even his supporters know, and are ready to concede, that he is not a good debater. But they vote for him anyway.

The point about the millions of votes already cast is a good one. More of the cake is baked in 20 than in 16. Higher turnout probably also suggests advantage: Biden. And the polling now for Biden is better than it was at this point for Hillary in 2016, conceded. However, most of the focus with 2016 is on the "polling errors" that supposedly happened, but lost in that is the clear polling movement that happened after the third debate. When the third debate ended in 16, Hillary had an 87/13 chance of winning according to the 538 forecast. It crashed from there down to 64.5%, before rebounding to 71.4% on election day. That wasn't because of a polling error - it was because of movement in the polls. The gravity of this race will pull Biden back down towards Trump, and already has: by how much, and how fast?

I just cannot shake the feeling that all Trump really needs to do is have a good, clean run up to the election. Counting back to Thursday, so far so good. I suspect he is going to get a pretty favorable economic report on November 1st. The surge in coronavirus in the midwest won't help him - but again, what has me nervous is that he need only hold his 16 states outside of PA, WI, and MI, and if he does that, then he need only win one of PA, WI, and MI. The states that supposedly give Biden multiple paths, outside of OH and FL, have long histories of voting red almost all the time - GA, NC, AZ. OH is more conservative than the rest of the country and I believe continues to trend that way as its population is older, whiter, and less urbanized than say PA. Basically I think OH is moving towards KY and away from PA. FL is like the only state in the union practically that went redder in 18 than in 16 - just a few days ago, Biden was supposedly a 72 in 100 shot to win it according to 538 - he is down to 67, and that number is right around where Hillary Clinton fumbled the ball in 2016. NC is at 65 in 100 for Biden, similarly.

If Trump does Trump in 20, he could win all of those states - particularly if this week he is relatively quiet, outside of holding his rallies. I can't find the video, but I remember seeing a clip of one in 2016 from 2016 where Trump started to get himself riled up and perhaps off on a crazy tangent and he actually interrupted himself to say something like - "Keep calm, just a week to go, my people keep telling me," or words to that effect. He did - and he won.

If he can stay disciplined for just 10 days, this is an election which he was set up to win handily before the coronavirus. And the biggest reason the coronavirus is a problem for him frankly isn't his "handling" or the death toll - both of those many will write off as the results of "nobody could see it coming" and natural disasters outside the control of the president - its the economic ruin it created. But the last jobs report had unemployment at 7.9% nationally. That is almost identical to the unemployment rate that existed while Obama was president right before his re-election in 2012. I would be willing to bet it will go down on the next report, which might be too late to really influence things (expected Monday 11/2), but then again maybe not.


Now, consider this article from November 7, 2012, in the immediate aftermath of Obama's win, from Reuters:

Early exit polls reflected a pro-Obama turnout by minorities and single women so big that in some key states it exceeded numbers seen during his historic election in 2008 as America’s first black president.

Although Republican Mitt Romney did much better with independent voters than Obama on Tuesday, that advantage was wiped out in key battleground states by an enthusiasm Obama managed to engender among his core coalition that many analysts were writing off just a few months ago as dispirited and fractured.

In Pennsylvania, for example, African-American turnout exceeded 2008 levels, ABC News said. In Nevada, 18 percent of the voters were Latino - up from 15 percent in 2008, according to CNN.

That rapidly growing electoral bloc backed Obama overwhelmingly, as it appeared to be doing in Florida, one of the biggest prizes with its 29 electoral college votes. By Tuesday night, Florida - a state Romney had been confident of winning - was too close to call, but appeared to be heading toward an Obama victory.

Reverse everything it says. Replace "Obama" with Trump, replace Obama's coalition of women and minority voters with Trump's coalition of working class and non-college educated whites and evangelicals thankful for Amy Coney-Barret and the coming end of Roe v. Wade, replace Romney's better performance among independent voters with Biden doing the same, and imagine people who love Trump, who love MAGA, but who had not managed to get themselves registered to vote in time for 2016, having done so in 2020, and ready to come out and back their guy, the guy who identifies with them and they with him.

And remember that all Trump needs to do is hold a bunch of states than are generally red anyway (AZ, GA, and NC), one that is moving redder with every passing year (OH), one that somehow was redder in 2018 when nearly every other battleground was bluer (FL), and now drive around PA and look at all those Trump flags and signs and see how motivated and threatened middle aged white men are and know their outsized influence on things, and understand:

This is going to be a lot closer than anybody seems to think, and has a great likelihood of being an even bigger dickpunch than 2016.

I don’t know what jtk was going for in that comment but if we’re going off favorable/unfavorable it’s not even close in terms of how people view the candidates. Biden is +6 right now in the RCP average, Hillary was at like 41/54 heading into the election.

What's up with trafalgar? Are they a republican firm?