I wonder whether ACB watched the debate and, if so, what was her gut-level reaction to Trump's performance.

If she actually believes in God and eternal life, is she worried she will burn in hellfire for dealing with the devil?

Why Trump blew up the debate, triggering a media backlash

The former reality show star is used to commanding the stage

That is a Fox New headline.

it was President Trump who, deliberately and methodically, blew up the format by refusing to play by the rules, constantly talking over Chris Wallace as well as his opponent. That’s not a partisan observation, it’s a fact. On a night when his campaign wanted to make the race more about Biden, Trump made it about himself and his tactics--fueling the media narrative that he’s more obsessed with his grievances than the country’s problems.

Too bad those words will never be aired

https://www.foxnews.com/media/why-trump ... a-backlash

The administration has 4th political appointee in 3 months to the US Census bureau. Most of these additions are unqualified (or meet the qualifications to be Trump appointees in this case). Trey Mayfield serving as councilor to the bureau's director. The question is why since the bureau has access to a team of lawyers in the United States Department of Commerce. Mayfield worked for Ken Cuccinelli in the private sector. All that raises concerns across the board.

In this role, Mr. Mayfield will assist the Director in strategic decision making and litigation coordination, reporting to the Department of Commerce Office of General Counsel

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/30/91652693 ... -nears-end

Seems the Iowa Senate race has become the tipping point between 50/50 and 51/49. Unexpected.

Another data point-- 2 million people have voted. At this point in 2016 it was about 75k. Certainly many more states allow mail in and earlier voting than back then, but still pretty stunning.

I still don't understand how Republicans get away with equating the stock market and "the economy." How many Americans care deeply about the former? And if it's 401-Ks that are so essential, how hard would it be to state how those fared in the Clinton and Obama years?

Like a lot of things, it feels like poor messaging from the Democrats.

Got my mail-in ballot yesterday, filling it out and dropping it off as soon as I can.

Bill McNeal wrote:Got my mail-in ballot yesterday, filling it out and dropping it off as soon as I can.

The drop offs in the libraries don't open for a little bit yet. There is one in West Chester though at the government services building.

https://www.chesco.org/4758/Drop-Off-Locations

Grotewold wrote:I still don't understand how Republicans get away with equating the stock market and "the economy." How many Americans care deeply about the former? And if it's 401-Ks that are so essential, how hard would it be to state how those fared in the Clinton and Obama years?

Like a lot of things, it feels like poor messaging from the Democrats.

Here is my hot take:

1. most people do not really know what the stock market is, those are the same people not participating
2. Politicians have conflated the stock market as the economy (see #1)
3. People are cowed into thinking that the stock market has some net direct effect on their well being, mostly because of point #2 (Stanley Milgram showed how this can happen)
4. When the economy falters and the market crashes there can be a direct effect for employees of companies publicly listed, but it is actually the indicator of the economic disruption (until a few weeks from now when the market becomes completely disconnected from economic factors)

Messaging aside, people have simply been trained. I love asking how the market has directly effected people who are hot on this topic and the answer is generally a blank stare. Honestly, the market is best for a different class of people overall who have well funded 401Ks and corporate contributions/profit sharing. Hell, my company contributed 7% of salary for 2019 into the managed plan, so I am interested in how my funds do, but almost anyone I grew up with does not have this access or opportunity (its actually kind of tragic)

Five Thirty Eight has Biden's chances to win at 80%...

That's the highest mark of the election cycle...

They also say even if polls are as "wrong" as they were in 2016, Biden would still win...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

Bill McNeal wrote:Got my mail-in ballot yesterday, filling it out and dropping it off as soon as I can.

Me too. The whole "naked ballot" thing is pretty clearly explained and hard to fuck up imo. I hope all that media attention didn't scare people off of them

All of you NJ voters, please remember the public questions on the ballot. Legalized marijuana is on the line and we’ll probably need it over the next few years.

The Savior wrote:Just stay alive Joe

Man, please don’t even breathe that. It’s a reminder that he’s 78 years old and could fall over dead at any minute. Kind of thought that was something that was pretty rare these days what with all the advancements in technology, but so many of my friends’ fathers have gone that way - and my own.

It’s scary as fuck to think about it. He absolutely must make it to January 20, 2021 at 12PM.

threecount wrote:Five Thirty Eight has Biden's chances to win at 80%...

That's the highest mark of the election cycle...

They also say even if polls are as "wrong" as they were in 2016, Biden would still win...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

Would or Could? Pollsters are selling polling.

thephan wrote:

threecount wrote:Five Thirty Eight has Biden's chances to win at 80%...

That's the highest mark of the election cycle...

They also say even if polls are as "wrong" as they were in 2016, Biden would still win...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

Would or Could? Pollsters are selling polling.

Would. A systemic 3-4 point polling error still means Biden hits 270.

CalvinBall wrote:

Bill McNeal wrote:Got my mail-in ballot yesterday, filling it out and dropping it off as soon as I can.

The drop offs in the libraries don't open for a little bit yet. There is one in West Chester though at the government services building.

https://www.chesco.org/4758/Drop-Off-Locations

Thanks! I'll probably wait until the 13th and drop it off at my library

Grotewold wrote:

Bill McNeal wrote:Got my mail-in ballot yesterday, filling it out and dropping it off as soon as I can.

Me too. The whole "naked ballot" thing is pretty clearly explained and hard to fuck up imo. I hope all that media attention didn't scare people off of them

Right? It's all clearly marked and you have everything you need in the envelope

Grotewold wrote:I still don't understand how Republicans get away with equating the stock market and "the economy." How many Americans care deeply about the former? And if it's 401-Ks that are so essential, how hard would it be to state how those fared in the Clinton and Obama years?

Like a lot of things, it feels like poor messaging from the Democrats.

Who is pushing that narrative now?

WRT messaging, I have seen pushback against the stock market = economy thing many times. I don't think it is necessarily a failure of Ds and, frankly, we have no way of really knowing whether or not people buy that equivalency no matter how much the GOP tries. Still, as thephan said, there are a large number of people who simply do not know any better. Surely there are some politicians that fall into that category but, by and large, politicians know exactly what they are doing. I think the GOP adds to the absurdity of the issue by solely focusing on the DJIA, which, as all of us know, only measures price movement of 30 companies. THIRTY out of about 3,500 publicly-traded companies on the two major exchanges in the US. Anyway, I know I am preaching to the choir so I'll stop now.

threecount wrote:Five Thirty Eight has Biden's chances to win at 80%...

That's the highest mark of the election cycle...

They also say even if polls are as "wrong" as they were in 2016, Biden would still win...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

Wasn’t HRC in the 90’s the day before the election?

JFLNYC wrote:

threecount wrote:Five Thirty Eight has Biden's chances to win at 80%...

That's the highest mark of the election cycle...

They also say even if polls are as "wrong" as they were in 2016, Biden would still win...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

Wasn’t HRC in the 90’s the day before the election?

No, she was 73% on election day at 538. NYT had her at 90%, Sam Wang at 99%.

Wolfgang622 wrote:

The Savior wrote:Just stay alive Joe

Man, please don’t even breathe that. It’s a reminder that he’s 78 years old and could fall over dead at any minute. Kind of thought that was something that was pretty rare these days what with all the advancements in technology, but so many of my friends’ fathers have gone that way - and my own.

It’s scary as fuck to think about it. He absolutely must make it to January 20, 2021 at 12PM.

Maybe it’s just me, but I feel like (modern- era) former Presidents live for a long, long time