Who's the Master Debater? The Latest Politics Thread

by **The Savior** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:53:27

The asset write offs he took is where the fraud is located. In years when asset values appreciated significantly, especially his properties located in major cities, he’s taking write offs. Don’t buy that.

My guess - he bought properties and immediately took write downs. Probably started with merit in midst of 2008 crisis and he carried the strategy forward.

by **JFLNYC** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:09:37

Assets depreciate for tax purposes even if they appreciate financially.

by **Eem** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:14:10

I know the polls were wrong in 2016, but they'd have to be way more wrong this year, right? And when discussing how wrong those polls are, I constantly forget that shit ass Jim Comey dropped the emails investigation letter like 10 days before the election. That alone might have been enough to make the polls as wrong as they were.

I don't think Trump supporters are going to give a shit about these reports, but anyone still on the fence might, and it's certainly juicy enough to be in the news cycle for five weeks

by **06hawkalum** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:17:54

The polls were not wrong in 2016. They were well within the margin of error AND Clinton won the popular vote. With that said, Biden is in a significantly better position with five weeks to election day than Clinton was in late September in 2016.

by **azrider** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:20:52

nothing is going to change the cnn/cnbc/nightly news biden supporter or the faux news trump crowd, but those that just watch the local evening news tend to be the ones that are the independents and undecideds and if this plays up on those outlets will definitely help sway those votes.

by **Eem** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:22:27

06hawkalum wrote:The polls were not wrong in 2016. They were well within the margin of error AND Clinton won the popular vote. With that said, Biden is in a significantly better position with five weeks to election day than Clinton was in late September in 2016.

Is there a handy tool to compare the polls and models from 2016 to 2020?

by **CalvinBall** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:24:18

Eem wrote:
06hawkalum wrote:The polls were not wrong in 2016. They were well within the margin of error AND Clinton won the popular vote. With that said, Biden is in a significantly better position with five weeks to election day than Clinton was in late September in 2016.

Is there a handy tool to compare the polls and models from 2016 to 2020?

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 8981807104

by **Grotewold** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:25:09

Eem wrote:Is there a handy tool to compare the polls and models from 2016 to 2020?

So close to PiP threat greatness but not quite

by **The Savior** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:26:38

JFLNYC wrote:Assets depreciate for tax purposes even if they appreciate financially.

Yes, agreed. But asset writedowns accelerate that.

by **lethal** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:29:34

The earlier Times story about the asset valuation schemes he did with his dad were way more interesting from a technical tax standpoint.

by **jerseyhoya** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:31:59

06hawkalum wrote:The polls were not wrong in 2016. They were well within the margin of error AND Clinton won the popular vote. With that said, Biden is in a significantly better position with five weeks to election day than Clinton was in late September in 2016.

A good deal of state level polling, particularly in the upper Midwest, was very wrong in 2016

by **Gimpy** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:34:30

lethal wrote:The earlier Times story about the asset valuation schemes he did with his dad were way more interesting from a technical tax standpoint.

I didn’t read the current one, but I think I remember him utilizing different appraisals for tax or loan purposes that showed wildly different valuations. It was so brazen (and probably common in that world if we’re being honest).

by **momadance** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:49:28

CalvinBall wrote:Parscale in the hospital after barricading himself inside his home and threatening to physically harm himself.

Hmmm....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1310584937356103686

by **jamiethekiller** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:58:35

Putins kompromat - someone on BSG

by **Bill McNeal** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:02:15

Biden’s campaign is selling stickers that say “I paid more income taxes than Donald Trump”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 69570.html

by **CalvinBall** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:03:22

jerseyhoya wrote:
06hawkalum wrote:The polls were not wrong in 2016. They were well within the margin of error AND Clinton won the popular vote. With that said, Biden is in a significantly better position with five weeks to election day than Clinton was in late September in 2016.

A good deal of state level polling, particularly in the upper Midwest, was very wrong in 2016

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

Yeah. I think the problem too was there were not enough quality polls done close to the election of these states too, from what I remember reading.

by **Bucky** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:04:41

right, how can we account for The Comey Effect?

by **slugsrbad** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:07:11

jerseyhoya wrote:
06hawkalum wrote:The polls were not wrong in 2016. They were well within the margin of error AND Clinton won the popular vote. With that said, Biden is in a significantly better position with five weeks to election day than Clinton was in late September in 2016.

A good deal of state level polling, particularly in the upper Midwest, was very wrong in 2016

This is correct. If you go back to 538 and click on each state for 2016 it is a bit depressing.

by **slugsrbad** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:09:29

Bucky wrote:right, how can we account for The Comey Effect?

I think they're hoping that the Durham Investigation and anything the Senate can build up regarding Hunter Biden and China will be the same. We may never know how much Comey affected the race, but the prevailing theme of the election was "... but her emails" and Comey's letter brought that back to the forefront.

Everything sucks.. but i can get better.

by **The Savior** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:30:41

Easier to post this than edit above -

I retract my earlier analysis on the Trump story. Seems like the business losses in question are potentially all reasonable and more so show how awful he is as a businessman. He pivoted, hard, to branding which was a minimal expense/minimum operational business that even he couldn’t fuck up. He took advantage of carryforwards and applied huge losses to years where he was making basically tons of money with minimal costs from branding (i.e., all revenue minimal deductions).

Here’s at a minimum whats at-stake:
1- are the business losses all legit. If not, he’s paying huge bills
2- is he paying his children consulting fees to avoid gift taxes and estate/inheritance type taxes down the line

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