Intersting article from Sweden, which largely used voluntary measures and did not shut down anywhere near the extent of its European neighbors.

tl;dr: everything's fine. Well, an awful lot of old people have died and will die, but that's becasue someone forgot to wash their hands or something. We're looking into it.

I wonder how many people in NYC are asymptomatic or have already recovered from a minor case. Given the nature of the city and the lack of testing especially early on, and the numbers we're seeing in other places, I wouldn't be shocked if NYC isn't close to 50% for positive antibodies.

swishnicholson wrote:Intersting article from Sweden, which largely used voluntary measures and did not shut down anywhere near the extent of its European neighbors.

tl;dr: everything's fine. Well, an awful lot of old people have died and will die, but that's because someone forgot to wash their hands or something. We're looking into it.

Confirmed :15,322 Recovered: 550 Deaths: 1,765

NORTH OF 10%

Worldwide Confirmed : 2,501,156 Recovered: 659,732 Deaths: 171,810

World 6.8%

TL;DR: Running significantly ahead of the world seems like an odd win

I have no idea why the IHME model isn't programmed to enter death totals in something like real time so you can see whether it's adhering to the model. Instead it lags way behind and then has to make a violent correction at the next update when it was clear as day to anyone outside that it was off. The information is available elsewhere, but it just makes them look unreliable.

Anyway, the 60K total for US deaths is looking unreasonably optimistic. The model has a projected death total today of 41K and it's up over 45K. Totals have never been below 1.5k since April 6th, and there are, of course, tons of active cases out there. Even assuming a best case average of 1500 a day for the next ten days (and we're at 2500 today), you're at 60k by the end of the month, and obviously things are not going to grind to zero at that point

swishnicholson wrote:I have no idea why the IHME model isn't programmed to enter death totals in something like real time so you can see whether it's adhering to the model. Instead it lags way behind and then has to make a violent correction at the next update when it was clear as day to anyone outside that it was off. The information is available elsewhere, but it just makes them look unreliable.

Anyway, the 60K total for US deaths is looking unreasonably optimistic. The model has a projected death total today of 41K and it's up over 45K. Totals have never been below 1.5k since April 6th, and there are, of course, tons of active cases out there. Even assuming a best case average of 1500 a day for the next ten days (and we're at 2500 today), you're at 60k by the end of the month, and obviously things are not going to grind to zero at that point

My guess on the model looking like it's going to be too optimistic is backfilling on all the deaths that are occurring in long term care facilities made deaths undercounted in the earlier stage of the crisis that they built the progression on. Also seemed to project way too quick a fall in deaths rather than the plateau that's happening in a lot of places.

Not the dumbest thing he's said or done, but Trump throwing out the specific numbers of 60-65k is going to be among the many things he gets shit for in the aftermath.

This is NC. Recognize anyone, Milty?

I am a fan of the "COVID-19 Killed Epstein" sign.

Chick in the red tee next to the "Bill of Rights Trumps Executive Order" was over last weekend. Other than her, no.

I think we should add 2 weeks for every protest to make sure there's no breakout from them. I have relatives close to Raleigh. If they were in better health I send them to look for Virginia license plates at these rallies.

I ran down to the gas station for a lottery ticket this afternoon. Bunch of people in there and I was impressed by the attitudes in the conversations I overheard.

Also wonder if the No Gates means Bill or the guidelines.

If you think Fauci has been heavy handed or too involved or you don’t like the left treating him like a god, maybe you have a leg to stand on. (I would disagree.) But Fauci is corrupt? What does that even mean? How do you even write that? Wtf.

Uncle Milty wrote:Also wonder if the No Gates means Bill or the guidelines.

To Bill Gates has become the People’s enemy yeah because he’s because he is pro vaccine and spoke a lot about a future pandemic

Anyone who protests should be denied medical care or ventilators. Choice is symmetrical.

Just got off a call where I got a report from a shop; 13 positives just amongst staff in this shop in my Chapter. Masks are falling apart.

Masks are falling apart?

Virginia is hitting pause on erecting 3 field hospitals

The Savior wrote:Anyone who protests should be denied medical care or ventilators. Choice is symmetrical.

And forever opts out of employer or public funded insurance

That middle picture above is absolute unreal. They are so packed together that ONE asymptomatic person in that crowd could get 10 people sick by themselves.

Michigan's fatality rate is 8.2%, holy shit.

The B1G Piece wrote:Michigan's fatality rate is 8.2%, holy shit.

Well, nationally we are at close 6%.

CalvinBall wrote:Masks are falling apart?

from being washed so many times because they aren't given enough

jerseyhoya wrote:

swishnicholson wrote:I have no idea why the IHME model isn't programmed to enter death totals in something like real time so you can see whether it's adhering to the model. Instead it lags way behind and then has to make a violent correction at the next update when it was clear as day to anyone outside that it was off. The information is available elsewhere, but it just makes them look unreliable.

Anyway, the 60K total for US deaths is looking unreasonably optimistic. The model has a projected death total today of 41K and it's up over 45K. Totals have never been below 1.5k since April 6th, and there are, of course, tons of active cases out there. Even assuming a best case average of 1500 a day for the next ten days (and we're at 2500 today), you're at 60k by the end of the month, and obviously things are not going to grind to zero at that point

My guess on the model looking like it's going to be too optimistic is backfilling on all the deaths that are occurring in long term care facilities made deaths undercounted in the earlier stage of the crisis that they built the progression on. Also seemed to project way too quick a fall in deaths rather than the plateau that's happening in a lot of places.

Not the dumbest thing he's said or done, but Trump throwing out the specific numbers of 60-65k is going to be among the many things he gets shit for in the aftermath.

Well, actually the last thing I saw was :

“Now we’re going toward 50 -- I’m hearing, or 60,000 people. One is too many. I always say it. One is too many, but we’re going toward 50 or 60,000 people. That’s at the lower -- as you know the lower (end of the projections) was supposed to be 100,000 people,” he said.

Yeah, he was actually in a good position in early April when the estimates they were citing were in the 100 to 240K range, so he could then claim victory when totals came in much lower. But in the least surprising turn of events in the world, he was both impatient and too eager to toot his own horn. Let us hope the totals aren't much higher than 60K, but I'd be extremely surprised if they aren't. I mean he'll pick whatever numbers work best for him even if he has to make them up and an awful lot of people will accept them, but maybe I'll feel better knowing he's demonstrably wrong.

Oh, who am I kidding.