Politics: Y'all ready for this?

by **jerseyhoya** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 23:11:00

This is really impressive. Not sure it will work. But it'd be nice to be a part of a party that would try.

by **jerseyhoya** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 23:23:11

Regardless of what happens, big wins from this cycle for what I think would improve the nominating process would be both parties moving away from caucuses and states eliminating or narrowing early voting in primaries. Would hope there'd be some popular pressure for both.

We'll see how it all shakes out.

by **Gimpy** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 23:30:14

jerseyhoya wrote:Regardless of what happens, big wins from this cycle for what I think would improve the nominating process would be both parties moving away from caucuses and states eliminating or narrowing early voting in primaries. Would hope there'd be some popular pressure for both.

We'll see how it all shakes out.

Wouldn’t a ranked choice primary solve a lot? Then if you vote early and someone drops out, your vote would still matter.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 00:04:31

jerseyhoya wrote:Klobuchar is really turning on all the stops to be VP

Ugh... I’d rather have you on the ticket tbh

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 00:24:11

For the nomination there are several states more important than Virginia tomorrow - California is the big delegate prize, Texas is a battleground (I think Biden is at a disadvantage due to early voting more than 538s model is acknowledging), and North Carolina is the biggest general election swing state up tomorrow and a legit toss up.

I'm really, really invested in how Virginia turns out. Not just because I work there, but I think it's a fascinating test case of Biden's strengths and Bernie's strengths and the power of Biden's endorsements (in and out of state). I think 538s model today was extremely responsive toward Biden, and has pulled him into a co-favorite to Bernie nationwide. But it only has him up 32-29 in VA going into tomorrow, which I think should be a decent Biden state between the over-representation of African Americans in the electorate and electability minded Dems in NoVa.

If Biden can somehow win there by double digits tomorrow or close to it, I think that points to him being the nominee. If Bernie wins, then I think he will be the nominee. If Biden wins a muddled win, this could go a while.

VA closes at 7 Eastern and counts fast and has several great election results websites.

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 00:29:03

Just checking in on twitter.com and seeing Change, which has been a horrendous pollster for Biden this cycle, has him up 20! in Virginia.

Tomorrow could be fucking weird.

The major negative for Biden is Change is probably not a very good pollster.

by **slugsrbad** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 00:29:34

jerseyhoya wrote:For the nomination there are several states more important than Virginia tomorrow - California is the big delegate prize, Texas is a battleground (I think Biden is at a disadvantage due to early voting more than 538s model is acknowledging), and North Carolina is the biggest general election swing state up tomorrow and a legit toss up.

I'm really, really invested in how Virginia turns out. Not just because I work there, but I think it's a fascinating test case of Biden's strengths and Bernie's strengths and the power of Biden's endorsements (in and out of state). I think 538s model today was extremely responsive toward Biden, and has pulled him into a co-favorite to Bernie nationwide. But it only has him up 32-29 in VA going into tomorrow, which I think should be a decent Biden state between the over-representation of African Americans in the electorate and electability minded Dems in NoVa.

If Biden can somehow win there by double digits tomorrow or close to it, I think that points to him being the nominee. If Bernie wins, then I think he will be the nominee. If Biden wins a muddled win, this could go a while.

VA closes at 7 Eastern and counts fast and has several great election results websites.

There were two polls released tonight that had Biden +14 (AtlasIntel) and +20 (Change Research) in Virginia, they're the first post-SC polls there. Shows a potential landslide for the VP.

The Change Research was Biden 45/Bernie 25/Warren 13/Bloomberg 10/Klobuchar 4 you have to think most of the Klobuchar vote goes to Biden and a lesser extent Warren. The Catalyst had Biden 42/Bernie 28/Bloomberg 11/Warren 10. Either way, both of these polls having only Bernie and Biden as viable would be huge for Biden.

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 00:34:16

If something like that's real, I guess the question is if it's because TMac, Kaine, Bobby Scott, etc. endorsed or if this is happening everywhere.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 00:51:31

Yeah I am thinking the handwriting is on the wall at this point. Bernie has crested, the party decides, and it decided.

by **thephan** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 06:40:24

“I actually told the pharmaceutical companies you have to do a little bit better job on that vaccine,” Trump said in Charlotte, North Carolina.

“You lose 27,000 people to the common flu. It can be much more,” Trump said. “One year it went up to 100,000 people. I said nobody told me that. Nobody knew that.”

by **pacino** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 07:45:06

there is nothing wrong with early voting. Eliminating it simply makes it harder for people to make their vote.

by **TomatoPie** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 08:07:50

@BenLaBolt

Sanders campaign puts out Marianne Williamson, anti-vaxxer in the midst of a global epidemic, as their CNN surrogate to counter the Biden unity rally.

by **TomatoPie** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 08:30:16

by **TenuredVulture** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 08:49:43

TomatoPie wrote:@BenLaBolt
Sanders campaign puts out Marianne Williamson, anti-vaxxer in the midst of a global epidemic, as their CNN surrogate to counter the Biden unity rally.

If this is true, and you think sanders has good judgment and would therefore make good appointments, well....

by **06hawkalum** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 08:57:46

TomatoPie wrote:

Bernie is done.

Mike releases his delegates to vote for Biden and he wins on the first ballot.

by **traderdave** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 09:26:10

Well that chart would test my question about what the Sanders campaign's reaction would be if that actually happened (since Sanders is NOW on record saying the delegate leader should be the nominee).

by **jamiethekiller** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 09:30:31

all i hear about joe is that he can reach across the aisle. where was that from 2008 to 2016. he has proven to have zero ability on that. the only across the aisle action that works is when democrats completely bend over backwards for the republicans and NEVER the other way around.

our democracy is being ripped from our hands and we're hoping that Joe can 'reach across the aisle?" give me a fucking break.

has joe even stated any sort of position on anything other than "when i was VP we did xyz?"

by **jamiethekiller** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 09:30:51

also, i kinda hope that bernie just runs as a third candidate.

by **TomatoPie** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 09:44:30

jamiethekiller wrote:also, i kinda hope that bernie just runs as a third candidate so that Trump wins again.

fyp

by **Gimpy** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 09:54:00

I was really looking forward to healthcare, but I guess I’ll settle for nothing substantially changing. While it would be disappointing for Joe to win the nomination, I really want to see someone that isn’t Trump in the White House.

I hope Bernie cleans up today though.

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