Monty kills the Halladay hard on

by **Trent Steele** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 20:31:59

Trent Steele wrote:LATEST FROM HEYMAN

The Phillies remain nearly everyone's favorite to land star Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay, and the teams are believed to have advanced to the point where they have discussed several of Philadelphia's top prospects -- including outfielder Michael Taylor, shortstop Jason Donald and pitcher Carlos Carrasco -- although, there's no evidence yet that the Phillies are relenting on top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek.

If Philly agrees to surrender Drabek, one competing executive said, "they might get (Halladay) real quick.''

But two more competing execs warned that they believe the Phillies would absolutely have to include Drabek -- a dynamic talent who impressed in the Futures Game -- to have any chance to land Halladay. If they're going to trade Halladay, "they've got to get the Phillies' best prospect,'' one American League exec insisted.

Beyond that, a package of Taylor (recently promoted to Triple-A in what looks like an obvious showcase), Donald and Carrasco is, according to another AL executive, woefully short. Plus, other baseball people seem to view outfielder Dominic Brown as Philly's second best prospect after Drabek. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro suggested 10 days ago that Drabek may be untouchable, though more recently he's tempered that remark slightly to say that he won't publicly disclose which prospects they might consider trading.

As a team with the publicly stated desire for a front-of-the-rotation starter, the wherewithal to acquire a star and a decent batch of prospects, the Phillies still appear to be the most logical landing spot, especially after Halladay himself talked about the National League in his remarks at the All-Star Game. Though some still question whether longtime club president David Montgomery will ultimately want to surrender their prime prospects plus spend the money, which amounts to about $23 million through 2010, especially with the club threatening to run away with the NL East, as is.

Jays G.M. J.P. Ricciardi, while suggesting no prospects have been absolutely ruled off limits by any interested teams so far, told SI.com in a phone interview, "I understand each team has certain restrictions. If a team doesn't want to move a player, I understand that. But it probably lessens the opportunity to (make a deal) with that team.''

Unlike Gammons or BP, Heyman is plugged in.

If its Drabek, Taylor, Donald, then get it done.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 20:33:49

FTN wrote:The only trade right now that I would not do is Drabek + Taylor + Brown. I won't give up all 3. I'd hate to see Drabek go, but I think of that trio, Brown is the guy you MUST hold onto.

If we did this deal, we take a lot off the top end of our system. But we still have a ton of interesting prospects, and we've kept our near ML ready guys in Donald and Marson. Both guys would be on the ML roster next year at the minimum, which will be important as we try and keep the salary under control.

Halladay is a stud of studs. Taylor could turn into Dave Winfield. Or he might not. But we have a chance, over the next 2.5 seasons, to re-shape the history of this entire franchise. We have to try.

Exactly this. As long as we keep Brown or Taylor, you've got to do it.

by **FTN** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 20:34:11

This is really where a GM makes his money. At this point, Halladay's value is a decaying assert. Every day he gets closer to free agency, his value drops ever so slightly. He will certainly be claimed on waivers after July 31, so if the Jays want to trade him before his value is cut in half, they have to do it before the deadline. They are limited to the teams they can trade with, for obvious reasons. Two of the teams with the enormous resources needed play in their division. Other teams will offer less because of this. If Ricciardi waits until this winter, he risks either getting half the bounty, or holding onto Halladay and hoping to get something for him next summer. Of course, every time Halladay takes the mound, he risks him picking up an injury and killing his trade value, ala Jake Peavy.

Ricciardi has to get a good return for Halladay, and he has to get a deal that most think is solid. Its pretty apparent that he doesn't have 5 years to realize the potential of the players picked up in the deal, so hes going to need to make a deal that gets praised from his end as soon as its made, while also figuring in some upside.

Someone is going to blink first. The Phillies still have the leverage, to a degree.

by **Trent Steele** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 20:34:54

danrosz wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:Fair enough, karn. I am just remembering the general position of this board a week and a half ago to two weeks ago - not necessarily your position - that a deal involving Drabek/Taylor/Happ/some other piece would be a tough-but-fair price for Halladay, and when news first broke he was available for real and the Phillies were in on it for real, it seemed the general consensus was this was a deal the Phillies should do. Over the same week and a half to two weeks since this story broke, the Phillies have recovered their position in the standings and then some by ripping off a nice winning streak. This action appears to have made more and more people complacent, and less and less interested in Halladay. Granted, hopefully the Phillies can leverage their recent play and the recent play of their division rivals to lower the price somehwat for Halladay, but Halladay is a special talent that is going to cost. BUT HE WILL BE WORTH IT.

All I am saying is: don't lose your courage people. Halladay pushes the Phillies into "elite" status, not just this year but next. Getting him will be the culmination of the era that began with the rise of Howard & Utley in 2005. The day the Phillies get Halladay will arguably be, with all due respect to October 21, 1980 and October 29, 2008, the greatest day in the history of the franchise, because it will mark the day when the Phillies finally fulfilled their promise, as a franchise, to be the kind of elite player that goes out and adds one of the best pitchers in baseball right after winning one World Series because it is going balls to the wall to win two more.

This is the moment people, RIGHT NOW: don't puss out over Kyle $#@!-ing Drabek!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't expect there to be a parade held that draws two million people when the Phillies sign Halladay. The greatest day in the history of the franchise? Stop... There's no doubt in my mind that if you were running the show, this "balls to the wall" mentality would have caused you to trade Howard and Utley years ago, and the Phillies would never be in the spot they are currently in.

Situations are not even close to comparable. Think the Yankees wish they could redo not giving up Hughes or Joba for Johan when they had the chance? Some situations make sense to jump on. Ryan Howard for Kip Wells did not. Kyle Drabek for Roy Halladay aint even close to the same thing.

by **Trent Steele** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 20:41:57

FTN wrote:This is really where a GM makes his money. At this point, Halladay's value is a decaying assert. Every day he gets closer to free agency, his value drops ever so slightly. He will certainly be claimed on waivers after July 31, so if the Jays want to trade him before his value is cut in half, they have to do it before the deadline. They are limited to the teams they can trade with, for obvious reasons. Two of the teams with the enormous resources needed play in their division. Other teams will offer less because of this. If Ricciardi waits until this winter, he risks either getting half the bounty, or holding onto Halladay and hoping to get something for him next summer. Of course, every time Halladay takes the mound, he risks him picking up an injury and killing his trade value, ala Jake Peavy.

Ricciardi has to get a good return for Halladay, and he has to get a deal that most think is solid. Its pretty apparent that he doesn't have 5 years to realize the potential of the players picked up in the deal, so hes going to need to make a deal that gets praised from his end as soon as its made, while also figuring in some upside.

Someone is going to blink first. The Phillies still have the leverage, to a degree.

I think where this shakes out is that Drabek goes but neither Taylor nor Brown go. I think JP needs to get Drabek to do a deal with the Phils. Rube can use that leverage to avoid sending Taylor. Something like Drabek, Donald, Marson, and a 2nd tier 4th player.

by **Trent Steele** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 20:50:09

Rumors and rumblings: The Blue Jays continue to shop right-hander Roy Halladay, and indications are that the Phillies are not as hot on him as has been reported, and that the Angels may be the frontrunners.

The Phillies remain nearly everyone's favorite to land star Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay, and the teams are believed to have advanced to the point where they have discussed several of Philadelphia's top prospects -- including outfielder Michael Taylor, shortstop Jason Donald and pitcher Carlos Carrasco

ROFLCOPTERS

They should blow up BP now

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 20:50:46

danrosz wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:Fair enough, karn. I am just remembering the general position of this board a week and a half ago to two weeks ago - not necessarily your position - that a deal involving Drabek/Taylor/Happ/some other piece would be a tough-but-fair price for Halladay, and when news first broke he was available for real and the Phillies were in on it for real, it seemed the general consensus was this was a deal the Phillies should do. Over the same week and a half to two weeks since this story broke, the Phillies have recovered their position in the standings and then some by ripping off a nice winning streak. This action appears to have made more and more people complacent, and less and less interested in Halladay. Granted, hopefully the Phillies can leverage their recent play and the recent play of their division rivals to lower the price somehwat for Halladay, but Halladay is a special talent that is going to cost. BUT HE WILL BE WORTH IT.

All I am saying is: don't lose your courage people. Halladay pushes the Phillies into "elite" status, not just this year but next. Getting him will be the culmination of the era that began with the rise of Howard & Utley in 2005. The day the Phillies get Halladay will arguably be, with all due respect to October 21, 1980 and October 29, 2008, the greatest day in the history of the franchise, because it will mark the day when the Phillies finally fulfilled their promise, as a franchise, to be the kind of elite player that goes out and adds one of the best pitchers in baseball right after winning one World Series because it is going balls to the wall to win two more.

This is the moment people, RIGHT NOW: don't puss out over Kyle $#@!-ing Drabek!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't expect there to be a parade held that draws two million people when the Phillies sign Halladay. The greatest day in the history of the franchise? Stop... There's no doubt in my mind that if you were running the show, this "balls to the wall" mentality would have caused you to trade Howard and Utley years ago, and the Phillies would never be in the spot they are currently in.

You are right that before the 2004 season, I would have offered Howard and Utley to Arizona for Randy Johnson. I'm not sure they would have done it then, but thank heavens the Phillies never offered. I could be wrong about this one - Drabek could turn into Roy Halladay some day.

But here is what I've learned since then: 1. The Phillies weren't good enough before the 2004 season to justify that kind of move, and 2. Building a trade for an elite pitcher around position prospects is a mistake; what you are getting has to make some gesture toward replacing what you are giving up. Obviously, a 1:1 relationship is not always possible, but if you are getting a pitcher you need to build the deal around pitchers, etc.

Anyway, I was pretty ambivalent towards any move available to the Phillies, until Halladay went on the block. The Phillies won a WFC last year, and are poised to make the playoffs again this year. With Halladay on board, they could go deep, and will be well-positioned again with a core in its prime next year. That's why I am so gung ho. You build and build and build for a mythical future, but what I am saying is: THIS is that future. This is that moment. Now. GLORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by **ReadingPhilly** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 20:54:41

i think this comment was posted around here somewhere but i couldn't find it, just wanted to offer my take:

Andrew (New York City)

Would an offer of Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Jason Donald and Lou Marson be sufficient for Roy Halladay (I am aware from your futures game article, you don’t love Drabek and your past articles that you don’t love Marson, but that is 2 top 25 prospects from BA’s most recent rankings and 2 other at least fairly well regarded guys).

Keith Law (1:55 PM)

I would not take that offer if I was Toronto, nor would I expect Ricciardi to take it. Marson and Drabek are both overrated, and as much as I like Brown, he’s probably two full years away and carries some risk.

i don't get caught up in the law hoopla because i read enough to generate my own opinion, but jesus christ, jp would drive to philly and pick those guys up. that's exactly the type of deal he's looking for,

right now, the phils just need to wait this thing out. they don't need to get halladay before the 31st, so i'd make an offer and just ride it out. i think the blue jays like d'arnaud over marson, so i doubt lou goes. i love taylor, but he's got to be in the deal. if rube can come out of this with drabek and brown still in the system, it'll be the greatest deal the phils ever made.

realistically, i think the phillies are the only team capable of adding him.

by **Trent Steele** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 20:59:36

Law is badly misreading the siuation, which is exactly what happens when you try to place a value on Halladay without knowing the market.

by **Bucky** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 21:00:20

I wonder if other potential suitors are whispering that the Phils "have" to include drabek? Would a major league GM ever listen to his peers (albeit indirectly) to gauge the value of his own player??

(point being that the Phils may not do it and it would then put them back in the hunt....)

by **Rev_Beezer** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 21:10:38

Keith Law is a shitdick.

by **Trent Steele** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 21:19:11

Rev_Beezer wrote:Keith Law is a $#@!.

I think the problem is that he is calculating "fair trade value" for Halladay under an open-market auctiion system with 29 bidders and with the realistic ability to bail on the idea of trading Halladay if you dont get that value. That's not reality. JP may have one bidder.

by **HillMD** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 21:26:14

JFLNYC wrote:I'm starting to think that maybe we shouldn't trade Taylor. As much as we all love Raul, what if his legs won't let him play OF regularly going forward? We might have to trade him to the AL and then a spot could open up for Taylor.

It seems everyone has their own personal favorite out of Taylor, Brown and Drabek. Without doubt, those are our 3 prime prospects. I tend to agree with you about Taylor. I don't see how an argument could be made for Brown over him.

I like Brown, he's an outstanding athlete. Projections are swell, but they don't show up in the W column until the player actually goes and puts up the numbers to support them. Brown and Taylor were together at Lakewood last season. Brown hit .292, which was nice. Taylor hit .361, which got him promoted to Clearwater. At Reading this season, Taylor was between 1 and 5 in every offensive category. He is a 6-6 250 pound brute. His arm is compared to Ellis Valentine.

Taylor, unlike Brown, is putting up statistics that consistently run well ahead of the projections of places like BaseballAmerica and certain scouts who make about the same money as a Lowe's clerk.

by **Squire** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 21:30:15

I think I've gotten to the point that where I would rather trade Drabek than either of Taylor or Happ.

by **Trent Steele** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 21:30:16

HillMD wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:I'm starting to think that maybe we shouldn't trade Taylor. As much as we all love Raul, what if his legs won't let him play OF regularly going forward? We might have to trade him to the AL and then a spot could open up for Taylor.

It seems everyone has their own personal favorite out of Taylor, Brown and Drabek. Without doubt, those are our 3 prime prospects. I tend to agree with you about Taylor. I don't see how an argument could be made for Brown over him.

I like Brown, he's an outstanding athlete. Projections are swell, but they don't show up in the W column until the player actually goes and puts up the numbers to support them. Brown and Taylor were together at Lakewood last season. Brown hit .292, which was nice. Taylor hit .361, which got him promoted to Clearwater. At Reading this season, Taylor was between 1 and 5 in every offensive category. He is a 6-6 250 pound brute. His arm is compared to Ellis Valentine.

Taylor, unlike Brown, is putting up statistics that consistently run well ahead of the projections of places like BaseballAmerica and certain scouts who make about the same money as a Lowe's clerk.

Brown is 21 with a .920 OPS at Clearwater. At 21, Taylor put up a .300 .365 .665 line in Williamsport. 2 year age difference is enormous. Enormous.

by **philliesphhan** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 21:31:10

^what he said

by **FTN** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 21:32:00

I think, at this point, this is what we're looking at

* Phillies have indicated they don't want to trade Drabek and Brown, they haven't said no on any other prospects

* Toronto has explored other options

- The Angels are willing to trade Brandon Wood, but after Wood, they have very little else to trade, and won't trade Jered Weaver
- The Rangers have major financial issues and would probably be unwilling to trade Neftali Feliz, who is thought of even more highly than Drabek, and Justin Smoak, who is more highly regarded than Brown and Taylor
- The White Sox, who are very aggressive, won't trade Gordon Beckham, and they have a very weak system outside of that
- The Cardinals have an interest, but won't trade Colby Rasmus. The deal would be centered around Brett Wallace, who is an excellent prospect, but their system drops off fairly steeply after him, and they may not have the money to realistically afford Halladay and address other needs
- The Dodgers will not trade Kershaw or Billingsley, and they've depleted much of their farm system depth over the last 2 years. James McDonald is interesting, but isn't even a Top 75 prospect
- The Yankees won't trade Joba or Hughes, and their system is still fairly thin at the upper levels, Austin Jackson is really their only near ready guy and isn't as good as Taylor or Brown
- The Red Sox won't trade Buchholz, while some scouts are questioning Lars Anderson, perceived as their best prospect, and Michael Bowden profiles more as a #4 SP. JP has also indicated that he doesn't want to trade Halladay in the division, but if he does, he'd require a lot more.

* So JP looks at what he can realistically get from other teams, and realizes his biggest payday is still with the Phillies. But he knows that if he appears desperate, the Phillies will try to scale back their offer even more.

* The wildcard here is if another team jumps out and makes an outrageous offer. Like the White Sox offering Gordon Beckham and Jon Danks and being willing to take Rolen as well. (Rolen would take over 3B for Beckham) If he can't find a deal like that, the Phillies options still have to be superior to what he can get elsewhere.

I think we're going to have to deal with 12 more days of this nonsense.

by **Trent Steele** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 21:32:38

Squire wrote:I think I've gotten to the point that where I would rather trade Drabek than either of Taylor or Happ.

I'm sorry. I disagree with this completely, particularly re Happ. He's been awesome. He's totally replaceable.

by **ReadingPhilly** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 21:34:51

HillMD wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:I'm starting to think that maybe we shouldn't trade Taylor. As much as we all love Raul, what if his legs won't let him play OF regularly going forward? We might have to trade him to the AL and then a spot could open up for Taylor.

It seems everyone has their own personal favorite out of Taylor, Brown and Drabek. Without doubt, those are our 3 prime prospects. I tend to agree with you about Taylor. I don't see how an argument could be made for Brown over him.

I like Brown, he's an outstanding athlete. Projections are swell, but they don't show up in the W column until the player actually goes and puts up the numbers to support them. Brown and Taylor were together at Lakewood last season. Brown hit .292, which was nice. Taylor hit .361, which got him promoted to Clearwater. At Reading this season, Taylor was between 1 and 5 in every offensive category. He is a 6-6 250 pound brute. His arm is compared to Ellis Valentine.

Taylor, unlike Brown, is putting up statistics that consistently run well ahead of the projections of places like BaseballAmerica and certain scouts who make about the same money as a Lowe's clerk.

i think taylor winds up closer to dave winfield than not. however, there are obvious reasons that taylor has to be the guy to go. the age difference is huge. the phils being stacked in the outfield is another. karn keeps reiterating the solid fact that the phils don't have an opening in the near future. let's face it, they aren't trading werth or vic under any circumstance. keeping taylor in the minors until 2011 isn't smart. if they're going to trade him, it might as well be for roy halladay.

by **hoya** » Sun Jul 19, 2009 21:38:27

The financial cost of trading something like Drabek, Taylor, Happ and Marson for a 15 million dollar player is gigantic. Top young players are worth huge amounts of value added in their early years. If we can't replace the Moyers, Werths, etc. with cheap young options, we will need to spend millions on those positions (in addition to million for Halladay) for players that won't match the upside of Taylor and Drabek.

As I've said before, I really don't like the idea of giving up tons of talent for the right to pay anyone 15 mil for a year and half. I don't think it's good business.

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Monty kills the Halladay hard on