z ipper wrote:the princess won't go on three days, roy will. you start him in all game 1's.

Trent Steele wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:I should have asked: "Can you realistically expect Halladay to pitch better than Happ has? Coming into today's start, Happ's ERA+ is 148. That's Halladay-like (154 & 151 last year and this). So Halladay's probably not going to pitch much better than Happ has. Of course you can't expect Happ to keep up the same pace, but what if he comes close to it?

Maybe Floppy's right and we should be shopping Blanton. The problem is you're not going to know about Pedro until after the trade deadline. If Pedro sucks, you're going to be sorry you gave up Blanton.

Look, I want Halladay, too. I've been saying so for over a year. I'm just saying it wouldn't surprise me if the Phils are having second thoughts.

I don't know, but that's not really the right question.

The right question(s) is: (1) whether Halladay is more likely than Happ to pitch to a 150 ERA+ going forward; and (2) whether Halladay is more likely to win Game 2 of the NLDS, 2 games in the NLCS and 2/3 games in the World Series.

Yes and Yes.

ek wrote:this rotation as currently constructed will win the division, and depending on the matchup, may win the 1st round but probably not advance further than that

ek wrote:this rotation as currently constructed will win the division, and depending on the matchup, may win the 1st round but probably not advance further than that

Didn't I? wrote:Nothing would be untouchable, that's for sure.

z ipper wrote:why would you pitch halladay in game 2 of the nlds after having him pitch game 1? seems risky tbh.

There is still time for Gomez, Mulvey and Guerra to develop, but right now, it does not appear that the Twins got even one rock-solid piece for Santana.

The consensus among the peers of Minnesota GM Bill Smith was that he had been placed in an incredibly difficult position during his first months on the job, and that in hindsight he probably waited too long to make a deal. The Yankees briefly offered pitcher Phil Hughes in a package in December of 2007, and in retrospect, rival executives said that probably was the best deal that Smith could've made. "But it was a tough call," one AL official said. "I mean, you're trading a Cy Young Award winner, and you're thinking that you should get more than that. But everything was working against him."

If the Jays wait, Halladay's value will steadily decline for all the reasons Santana's value dropped. If the Jays wait, circumstances will impede Halladay's value. If he's traded in the winter, rather than within the next 12 days, the team that acquires him will have Halladay for only one pennant race rather than two. He'll be 33 next season rather than 32 at a time when teams are increasingly leery of age. He'll be just one season away from free agency rather than two.

So long as Brian Cashman remains in power as the GM of the Yankees, they almost certainly will not bid seriously for Halladay in a trade because of his impending free agency and what it will cost them in prospects. The Red Sox love Halladay as everybody loves Halladay, but they won't overpay to get him for 2010 because they already will face a contractual decision on Josh Beckett, who will be eligible for free agency after next season. They have no idea what Daisuke Matsuzaka will be for them in the years ahead, which will make them less inclined to consider trading Clay Buchholz.

The Mets would love to have Halladay, but they don't have the kind of prospects the Jays are seeking (just as the Twins were never enamored with the Mets' prospects in a possible Santana trade until it was clear that the Mets were the best available option). The Dodgers won't want to part with Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley now or in the near future, and the Angels don't have premium pitching prospects at the top of their farm system. The White Sox and Cubs might re-engage in talks with the Jays during the winter, but the White Sox already are focused on getting younger pitchers, and the Cubs may soon have to make that a priority, given the age of the club.

Virtually all the small-market and midmarket teams won't consider making a Halladay deal because of the enormousness of his next contract. As a free agent, Halladay probably will be able to get $15 million to $20 million a season, and although his trade value might sink, his ability will make his value as a free agent recession-proof. If Halladay becomes a free agent in the fall of 2010, that's when the Red Sox and the Yankees will bid aggressively.

The Jays don't want to be in the same position the Twins were in. If they let those trade talks drag on, their entire offseason will be filled with conversation about how and why the Jays are dealing their best player. (The Padres can testify to how this can drag down a team's ticket sales after the winter-long Jake Peavy discussions.)

If the Jays know they won't be able to re-sign Halladay after the 2010 season -- and the guess here is that Halladay already has indicated to the Jays, respectfully and without any demands, that he won't stick around if the team won't spend money -- they should swallow hard and make the best deal they can right now. Most likely, that will be with the Phillies.

Because history tells us that the quality of the offers they get for Halladay will only go down.

FTN wrote:

There is still time for Gomez, Mulvey and Guerra to develop, but right now, it does not appear that the Twins got even one rock-solid piece for Santana.

The consensus among the peers of Minnesota GM Bill Smith was that he had been placed in an incredibly difficult position during his first months on the job, and that in hindsight he probably waited too long to make a deal. The Yankees briefly offered pitcher Phil Hughes in a package in December of 2007, and in retrospect, rival executives said that probably was the best deal that Smith could've made. "But it was a tough call," one AL official said. "I mean, you're trading a Cy Young Award winner, and you're thinking that you should get more than that. But everything was working against him."

If the Jays wait, Halladay's value will steadily decline for all the reasons Santana's value dropped. If the Jays wait, circumstances will impede Halladay's value. If he's traded in the winter, rather than within the next 12 days, the team that acquires him will have Halladay for only one pennant race rather than two. He'll be 33 next season rather than 32 at a time when teams are increasingly leery of age. He'll be just one season away from free agency rather than two.

So long as Brian Cashman remains in power as the GM of the Yankees, they almost certainly will not bid seriously for Halladay in a trade because of his impending free agency and what it will cost them in prospects. The Red Sox love Halladay as everybody loves Halladay, but they won't overpay to get him for 2010 because they already will face a contractual decision on Josh Beckett, who will be eligible for free agency after next season. They have no idea what Daisuke Matsuzaka will be for them in the years ahead, which will make them less inclined to consider trading Clay Buchholz.

The Mets would love to have Halladay, but they don't have the kind of prospects the Jays are seeking (just as the Twins were never enamored with the Mets' prospects in a possible Santana trade until it was clear that the Mets were the best available option). The Dodgers won't want to part with Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley now or in the near future, and the Angels don't have premium pitching prospects at the top of their farm system. The White Sox and Cubs might re-engage in talks with the Jays during the winter, but the White Sox already are focused on getting younger pitchers, and the Cubs may soon have to make that a priority, given the age of the club.

Virtually all the small-market and midmarket teams won't consider making a Halladay deal because of the enormousness of his next contract. As a free agent, Halladay probably will be able to get $15 million to $20 million a season, and although his trade value might sink, his ability will make his value as a free agent recession-proof. If Halladay becomes a free agent in the fall of 2010, that's when the Red Sox and the Yankees will bid aggressively.

The Jays don't want to be in the same position the Twins were in. If they let those trade talks drag on, their entire offseason will be filled with conversation about how and why the Jays are dealing their best player. (The Padres can testify to how this can drag down a team's ticket sales after the winter-long Jake Peavy discussions.)

If the Jays know they won't be able to re-sign Halladay after the 2010 season -- and the guess here is that Halladay already has indicated to the Jays, respectfully and without any demands, that he won't stick around if the team won't spend money -- they should swallow hard and make the best deal they can right now. Most likely, that will be with the Phillies.

Because history tells us that the quality of the offers they get for Halladay will only go down.

- Olney's blog

ReadingPhilly wrote:i'm not sure we have the equivalent of a deolis guerra in our system

z ipper wrote:the princess won't go on three days, roy will. you start him in all game 1's.

philliesphhan wrote:Gillick is there today to watch Halladay. The Phillies wouldn't send him there if we weren't interested.