hoya wrote:The financial cost of trading something like Drabek, Taylor, Happ and Marson for a 15 million dollar player is gigantic. Top young players are worth huge amounts of value added in their early years. If we can't replace the Moyers, Werths, etc. with cheap young options, we will need to spend millions on those positions (in addition to million for Halladay) for players that won't match the upside of Taylor and Drabek.

As I've said before, I really don't like the idea of giving up tons of talent for the right to pay anyone 15 mil for a year and half. I don't think it's good business.

Those players are worth that in value if they live up to expectations and projections. If they wind up hitting the wall and not progressing, they're worth far far less.

Halladay is expensive, but you know what he is, and you know what he is right now.

I understand your concern hoya, and that's why I am a little puzzled as to why people feel so bloody sure that Victorino won't be traded. I think building a package to get Halladay around Drabek, Donald, D'Arnaud, and another arm is the ideal way to go, because I think Victorino is totally movable next year (the Yankees could probably provide us with a right handed bat for our bench and a bullpen arm for him, for example), and then you can move Werth to center and put Taylor in right next year to save money. If you also keep Brown, you can eventually replace Werth.

It looks like the Phillies are intent to trade Taylor over Drabek for Halladay, and I certainly won't complain if they do, but I do think they have the option to make Drabek the center of the package because Victorino is already moving towards being costly and yet still has value on the trade market. That's the way I would go if I were them, but of course I would go as high as parting with Taylor AND Drabek if it were necessary. Though I'd wait as long as possible to see if I could pull it off without both of those two.

i really feel there's no way the phillies even think about trading vic. none.

ReadingPhilly wrote:i really feel there's no way the phillies even think about trading vic. none.

Which is a shame.

FTN wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:i really feel there's no way the phillies even think about trading vic. none.

Which is a shane.

fyp

get it.

FTN wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:i really feel there's no way the phillies even think about trading vic. none.

Which is a shame.

Well, if they trade Taylor I don't know if they will have an option but to keep him next year, but I think once they get a load of what he's going to ask for in arbitration next year they might magically discover a desire to move him while the moving is good. I expect Rube, like his mentor Wade, will be good at the whole arbitration deal.

FTN wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:i really feel there's no way the phillies even think about trading vic. none.

Which is a shame.

i feel the same way. i've been a proponent of the move him out, werth to center and taylor to right. but the pr machine that is the phillies aren't going to move a cheap, all-star who is a fan favorite.

ReadingPhilly wrote:i really feel there's no way the phillies even think about trading vic. none.

I may be slow, but it even occurs to one such as myself that it would not be that hard to replace the flyin' Hawaiian with a guy that's flyin' on Hawaiian. Filling in in right would not be an impossible chore.

ReadingPhilly wrote:

FTN wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:i really feel there's no way the phillies even think about trading vic. none.

Which is a shame.

i feel the same way. i've been a proponent of the move him out, werth to center and taylor to right. but the pr machine that is the phillies aren't going to move a cheap, all-star who is a fan favorite.

I would imagine most winning teams won't move a cheap all-star who is a fan favorite.

There's no reason to, at least for the forseeable future. He's controllable for 3 more years, I think, he's a consistent .280-.300 hitter, he plays above-average defense, and he'll steal you 30 bags.

Unless you're getting a king's ransom in return, or you have an absolute mega-prospect behind him (I'm talking top 5 in baseball), why would you move him?

mcare89 wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:

FTN wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:i really feel there's no way the phillies even think about trading vic. none.

Which is a shame.

i feel the same way. i've been a proponent of the move him out, werth to center and taylor to right. but the pr machine that is the phillies aren't going to move a cheap, all-star who is a fan favorite.

I would imagine most winning teams won't move a cheap all-star who is a fan favorite.

There's no reason to, at least for the forseeable future. He's controllable for 3 more years, I think, he's a consistent .280-.300 hitter, he plays above-average defense, and he'll steal you 30 bags.

Unless you're getting a king's ransom in return, or you have an absolute mega-prospect behind him (I'm talking top 5 in baseball), why would you move him?

big believer in taylor.

ReadingPhilly wrote:

FTN wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:i really feel there's no way the phillies even think about trading vic. none.

Which is a shame.

i feel the same way. i've been a proponent of the move him out, werth to center and taylor to right. but the pr machine that is the phillies aren't going to move a cheap, all-star who is a fan favorite.

If you ditch an OF I would think Werth would make more sense. Victorino is slightly younger and has turned himself into a good quasi-leadoff hitting, 4 tool, gold glove CFer. They are kind of rare, no? Plus Werth would tend to make more money due to all his bombs.

Victorino's defense is suspect, I'm still not a believer there. And I think Werth is the better overall player.

I think its a situation where a team might pay more for perceived value than actual value. Victorino seems like a really exciting player who makes things happen. But his 117 OPS+ is a career high this year, and his .296 EqA this year is his high water mark, but still falls behind Werth's .307. Werth is actually working on his third straight season with an EqA over .300.

I wouldn't give Victorino away. But if someone was willing to overpay for him, I'd certainly move him. He's going to make like 5-6 million next year, at least, so he won't be much cheaper than Werth.

The best thing to do with Werth would be to extend him after this season. I'd offer him 3Y/$24M and see what he says to it.

CFP wrote:The best thing to do with Werth would be to extend him after this season. I'd offer him 3Y/$24M and see what he says to it.

You mean 2011-2013? Cause he just signed a two year deal

The Phillies are going to have payroll issues. Its hard to field a team with 7/9 all-stars. If they trade for Halladay with the intent of letting him walk in 2 years then it won't be so bad......but then you'll have limited money to replace him anyway unless you let somebody walk.

Andrew (New York City)

Would an offer of Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Jason Donald and Lou Marson be sufficient for Roy Halladay (I am aware from your futures game article, you don’t love Drabek and your past articles that you don’t love Marson, but that is 2 top 25 prospects from BA’s most recent rankings and 2 other at least fairly well regarded guys).

Keith Law (1:55 PM)

I would not take that offer if I was Toronto, nor would I expect Ricciardi to take it. Marson and Drabek are both overrated, and as much as I like Brown, he’s probably two full years away and carries some risk.

If JPR wouldn't take that deal, there's no deal to be made IMO. That's a great haul for Halladay.

I agree with the sentiment that I'd trade anyone, but we have to keep one of the three of Drabek, Taylor & Brown. And, remember, whatever deal may be made it's for Halladay plus two draft picks (unless he signs an extension, which would be fine, too).

JFLNYC wrote:

Andrew (New York City)

Would an offer of Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Jason Donald and Lou Marson be sufficient for Roy Halladay (I am aware from your futures game article, you don’t love Drabek and your past articles that you don’t love Marson, but that is 2 top 25 prospects from BA’s most recent rankings and 2 other at least fairly well regarded guys).

Keith Law (1:55 PM)

I would not take that offer if I was Toronto, nor would I expect Ricciardi to take it. Marson and Drabek are both overrated, and as much as I like Brown, he’s probably two full years away and carries some risk.

If JPR wouldn't take that deal, there's no deal to be made IMO. That's a great haul for Halladay.

I agree with the sentiment that I'd trade anyone, but we have to keep one of the three of Drabek, Taylor & Brown. And, remember, whatever deal may be made it's for Halladay plus two draft picks (unless he signs an extension, which would be fine, too).

That's about as good an offer as I'd make. Were not giving more than 4 prospects that are not throw-ins, and I can't see a scenario where Drabek, Brown AND Taylor are all in the deal.

Would the Phils offer Drabek, Taylor, Marson and Donald? When you think of what the Phils got for Schilling it really puts it in perspective. Unless we are WAYYYYY over-valuing our own farm --

But as I've said elsewhere -- if we end up with Halladay and JA, and one of Brown or Taylor, I can live with that for Halladay. And if Halladay continues to be Halladay I would give him pretty much whatever he wanted to extend him. At that point, it doens't matter to me if Drabek is Halladay, because we havce Halladay who is still Halladay.

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