Warszawa wrote:40,979 votes in on the Foxsports.com poll:

Who gets Halladay?

Yankees 28%
Phillies 22%
Blue Jays 18%
Red Sox 13%
Dodgers 12%
Angels 7%

either there's too many NY fans in that poll, or people are too used to the yankees getting EVERYONE.

Seriously, is there any way the Phillies can put together some sort of package without including Drabek? That would be sweet.

CFP wrote:Heyman says Halladay will be a Phillies

I'll continue to feel good about things as long as Heyman keeps reporting this. He's the only connected mainstream guy I remotely trust.

FTN wrote:Victorino's defense is suspect, I'm still not a believer there. And I think Werth is the better overall player.

I think its a situation where a team might pay more for perceived value than actual value. Victorino seems like a really exciting player who makes things happen. But his 117 OPS+ is a career high this year, and his .296 EqA this year is his high water mark, but still falls behind Werth's .307. Werth is actually working on his third straight season with an EqA over .300.

I wouldn't give Victorino away. But if someone was willing to overpay for him, I'd certainly move him. He's going to make like 5-6 million next year, at least, so he won't be much cheaper than Werth.

His defense is what ? The guy throws as well as any cf in the game. Has great speed and can chase down just about everything. His routes may not always be perfect, but the guy is the best defensive cf in the NL.

Oh and Werth is overvalued by many. It does not surprise me as numbers can be very deceptive. He is very poor against rh pitching and is on pace to k close to 150 times and hit .255. Michael Taylor may be better than him by next year.

Werth's career OPS vs. RHP is .004 worse than Shane's.

His career OPS vs. LHP is .110 better than Shane's.

Heyman was just on Mike'd Up too

He believes the Phillies are the favorites as of now. Phils have talked about including Taylor, Carrasco, and Donald in a deal. As of right now Drabek is off the table.

The Yankees are not out of it yet and have asked Toronto to come back to them before they do a deal so the Yanks can think about it.

Toronto would still prefer to send him to the NL. The package for the Yankees would be Joba or Hughes plus Montero, Jackson, and others.

Also said there is a outside chance Cliff Lee could be traded.

Coste2Coste wrote:Heyman was just on Mike'd Up too

He believes the Phillies are the favorites as of now. Phils have talked about including Taylor, Carrasco, and Donald in a deal. As of right now Drabek is off the table.

The Yankees are not out of it yet and have asked Toronto to come back to them before they do a deal so the Yanks can think about it.

Toronto would still prefer to send him to the NL. The package for the Yankees would be Joba or Hughes plus Montero, Jackson, and others.

Also said there is a outside chance Cliff Lee could be traded.

If they can add someone to the Drabek-less deal to make it happen that would be great. With all the Yankees PR about their farm system development I can't believe they will trade JOBA or Hughes...but if they are on the table I guess Drabek has to go.

Cliff Lee you say?

i like how they ask for kershaw and joba and... drabek

GMAN wrote:

FTN wrote:Victorino's defense is suspect, I'm still not a believer there. And I think Werth is the better overall player.

I think its a situation where a team might pay more for perceived value than actual value. Victorino seems like a really exciting player who makes things happen. But his 117 OPS+ is a career high this year, and his .296 EqA this year is his high water mark, but still falls behind Werth's .307. Werth is actually working on his third straight season with an EqA over .300.

I wouldn't give Victorino away. But if someone was willing to overpay for him, I'd certainly move him. He's going to make like 5-6 million next year, at least, so he won't be much cheaper than Werth.

His defense is what ? The guy throws as well as any cf in the game. Has great speed and can chase down just about everything. His routes may not always be perfect, but the guy is the best defensive cf in the NL.

Oh and Werth is overvalued by many. It does not surprise me as numbers can be very deceptive. He is very poor against rh pitching and is on pace to k close to 150 times and hit .255. Michael Taylor may be better than him by next year.

you are incorrect on a number of counts which i will not explain because you will not listen and so that is the end of it afaiac

FTN wrote:

hoya wrote:The financial cost of trading something like Drabek, Taylor, Happ and Marson for a 15 million dollar player is gigantic. Top young players are worth huge amounts of value added in their early years. If we can't replace the Moyers, Werths, etc. with cheap young options, we will need to spend millions on those positions (in addition to million for Halladay) for players that won't match the upside of Taylor and Drabek.

As I've said before, I really don't like the idea of giving up tons of talent for the right to pay anyone 15 mil for a year and half. I don't think it's good business.

Those players are worth that in value if they live up to expectations and projections. If they wind up hitting the wall and not progressing, they're worth far far less.

Halladay is expensive, but you know what he is, and you know what he is right now.

The thing is, it isn't only a loss for us if everyone we give up lives up to their billing - even if just Taylor does and Happ settles in as a 4/5, we are losing out value wise, and perhaps quite badly.

Now, that sacrifice could be worth it if Halladay helps us win another title. I just don't think it's worth the risk - especially when it seems like nobody else is making a serious offer.

I'll go out on a limb and say that this whole Drabek is an "untouchable" shtick is a ruse by Amaro to drive up Drabek's value, so that we ultimately get Halladay for a package that includes Drabek, but doesn't include Taylor, Brown, or Knapp. My opinion is that either Taylor or Brown is the "true" untouchable that Amaro wants to keep.

GMAN wrote:His defense is what ? The guy throws as well as any cf in the game. Has great speed and can chase down just about everything. His routes may not always be perfect, but the guy is the best defensive cf in the NL.

Oh and Werth is overvalued by many. It does not surprise me as numbers can be very deceptive. He is very poor against rh pitching and is on pace to k close to 150 times and hit .255. Michael Taylor may be better than him by next year.

No questions asssssssssssssssk

FTN wrote:

GMAN wrote:

FTN wrote:Victorino's defense is suspect, I'm still not a believer there. And I think Werth is the better overall player.

I think its a situation where a team might pay more for perceived value than actual value. Victorino seems like a really exciting player who makes things happen. But his 117 OPS+ is a career high this year, and his .296 EqA this year is his high water mark, but still falls behind Werth's .307. Werth is actually working on his third straight season with an EqA over .300.

I wouldn't give Victorino away. But if someone was willing to overpay for him, I'd certainly move him. He's going to make like 5-6 million next year, at least, so he won't be much cheaper than Werth.

His defense is what ? The guy throws as well as any cf in the game. Has great speed and can chase down just about everything. His routes may not always be perfect, but the guy is the best defensive cf in the NL.

Oh and Werth is overvalued by many. It does not surprise me as numbers can be very deceptive. He is very poor against rh pitching and is on pace to k close to 150 times and hit .255. Michael Taylor may be better than him by next year.

you are incorrect on a number of counts which i will not explain because you will not listen and so that is the end of it afaiac

That fan sentiment is exactly why Victorino will not be traded.

lethal wrote:

FTN wrote:

GMAN wrote:

FTN wrote:Victorino's defense is suspect, I'm still not a believer there. And I think Werth is the better overall player.

I think its a situation where a team might pay more for perceived value than actual value. Victorino seems like a really exciting player who makes things happen. But his 117 OPS+ is a career high this year, and his .296 EqA this year is his high water mark, but still falls behind Werth's .307. Werth is actually working on his third straight season with an EqA over .300.

I wouldn't give Victorino away. But if someone was willing to overpay for him, I'd certainly move him. He's going to make like 5-6 million next year, at least, so he won't be much cheaper than Werth.

His defense is what ? The guy throws as well as any cf in the game. Has great speed and can chase down just about everything. His routes may not always be perfect, but the guy is the best defensive cf in the NL.

Oh and Werth is overvalued by many. It does not surprise me as numbers can be very deceptive. He is very poor against rh pitching and is on pace to k close to 150 times and hit .255. Michael Taylor may be better than him by next year.

you are incorrect on a number of counts which i will not explain because you will not listen and so that is the end of it afaiac

That fan sentiment is exactly why Victorino will not be traded.

But unless you get bowled over, there's no reason to trade him. His price tag is going to stay reasonable for the next couple years. He produces offensively, and I don't know of any evidence to say that his defense is worse than above-average.

mcare89 wrote:I don't know of any evidence to say that his defense is worse than above-average.

Link. Find 2009 CF. Go all the way to the right under UZR/150.

CrashburnAlley wrote:

mcare89 wrote:I don't know of any evidence to say that his defense is worse than above-average.

Link. Find 2009 CF. Go all the way to the right under UZR/150.

I'm not gonna lie, I don't even know what that means.

I'll take your word for it that it's not good, but is moving Werth to center and sticking Taylor in right really that much better an option?

mcare89 wrote:

CrashburnAlley wrote:

mcare89 wrote:I don't know of any evidence to say that his defense is worse than above-average.

Link. Find 2009 CF. Go all the way to the right under UZR/150.

I'm not gonna lie, I don't even know that that means.

I'll take your word for it that it's not good, but is moving Werth to center and sticking Taylor in right really that much better an option?

Oh, here's what UZR/150 is:

UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.

UZR/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.

As to the debate you mention (Victorino/Werth vs. Werth/Taylor), I'm not going to jump in halfway through so I'll just leave that to you guys.

Just wanted to point out that Victorino hasn't been that good according to most defensive metrics.

He's middle of the pack in Revised Zone Rating (RZR, found at The Hardball Times). Baseball Prospectus gives him a Rate of 85 (100 is average) and -13 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA).

hoya wrote:

FTN wrote:

hoya wrote:The financial cost of trading something like Drabek, Taylor, Happ and Marson for a 15 million dollar player is gigantic. Top young players are worth huge amounts of value added in their early years. If we can't replace the Moyers, Werths, etc. with cheap young options, we will need to spend millions on those positions (in addition to million for Halladay) for players that won't match the upside of Taylor and Drabek.

As I've said before, I really don't like the idea of giving up tons of talent for the right to pay anyone 15 mil for a year and half. I don't think it's good business.

Those players are worth that in value if they live up to expectations and projections. If they wind up hitting the wall and not progressing, they're worth far far less.

Halladay is expensive, but you know what he is, and you know what he is right now.

The thing is, it isn't only a loss for us if everyone we give up lives up to their billing - even if just Taylor does and Happ settles in as a 4/5, we are losing out value wise, and perhaps quite badly.

Now, that sacrifice could be worth it if Halladay helps us win another title. I just don't think it's worth the risk - especially when it seems like nobody else is making a serious offer.

Im not saying there isnt an amount of risk. But to me, its a complex equation, and it looks something like this.

Halladay's salary for 2009+2010 = A
The value of the prospects given up = B

Cost = A + B

Halladay's production = C
Halladay's contribution, post 2010* = D

* If Halladay isn't re-signed, the Phillies will offer arbitration, and at worst, will receive 2 draft picks, one of which will definitely be in the first 45 picks, the other could be as high as #16, and at worst, will also be in the first 75 picks. Those two picks seem to be the least talked about aspect of this deal. Everyone is talking about giving up Drabek, Taylor, Marson and Donald. Of that lot, Drabek is the only first round pick in the group, Taylor was a 5th round pick, Marson was a 4th round pick, Donald was a 3rd round pick. Happ, who isn't listed here, was also a 3rd round pick. Top to bottom, the Phillies have hit multiple home runs outside of the first round and have made the most of their last five drafts, relatively speaking. These two draft picks would be of significant value. Now, onto the value aspect

A = $20.58M ($4.83M for 2009, $15.75M for 2010)

This is the remaining amount left on Halladay's deal. I assumed July 31 is the day he's traded, I just took 61 days left in the season and figured the percentage left on his contract. I don't know if that's exact, but its close enough. So, the Phillies financial outlay for Halladay is about $20.5M. Halladay's PECOTA projection for this year had him with a MORP of $12.225M, with his actual salary being $14.75. They gave him a WARP of 5.2 in the projection, his 50th percentile WARP was 5.1, his 75th was 7.5 and his 90th was 9.1. His DT card at BP hasn't been updated with today's start, and its at 3.9. Lets just assume 4.0 as a round number, which I think is fair. He's at 4.0 after 132 IP. He's started 17 games, and is projected to start 14 more games the rest of the way. 132 IP, 17 games, is an average of 7.2 IP per start. Take his WARP of 4 through 132 IP, give him 7 IP per start with the same performance for 14 more starts, and he's at 230 IP, with a WARP of 6.96. This means his performance would fall somewhere around his 70th percentile score. This means that he's essentially a 3 win player (above replacement) for the remainder of the regular season.

His actual MORP value would probably be right around the actual value of his contract. His MORP for 2010 right now is $10.45, but will increase if he maintains his current pace. PECOTA does not see a dropoff in any of his peripherals for 2010. Fangraphs, which I don't put a lot of stock into, has him valued at $34.4M for 2009, which if you again go on the percentage of the season he'd pitch in Philly, would mean he'd be worth $11.66M for the remaining two months. His valuation for 2010 according to fangraphs is $18.7M. Add those two together, and he's valued at $30.36M, or just about $10M more than we'd be paying him.

This, of course, is a linear analysis. You have to factor who he would be replacing in the rotation in the regular season, and then his postseason contributions should the team make it that far. Happ is pitching well above his 90th percentile projection at BP based on ERA. His 50th percentile weighted mean projection was a 4.87 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with a WARP of 2.1, which gave him a MORP of $3M. Of course he's far surpassed that, and his WARP on the season is already 2.7. Lots of people are quick to point out his FIP is much higher than his actual ERA. And while its logical to assume he's going to regress somewhat, no one knows how much, and no one knows if hes the guy who will be replaced, if hes included in the deal, sent to the bullpen, or whatever else.

Halladay's value to the Phillies comes not only in the regular season, but in the playoffs. Last year, the schedule was

LDS: Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday

In this scenario, Halladay could have started Game 1, and then started Game 4 on 3 days rest if need by, or Game 5 on full rest.

LCS: Thursday, Friday, Sunday, Monday, Wednesday

In this scenario, Halladay could have started Game 1, Game 4 on 3 days rest, and then Game 7 on what probably would have been full rest. I don't have the full schedule handy, just the games that were actually played.

WS: Same as above

So theoretically, you could get 2 starts in the LDS, 3 starts in the LCS and 3 starts in the WS, so 8 starts total. That's assuming he goes on short rest, and all of those games are needed. In reality, he'd go in Game 1 and 5, Game 1 and 5, and Game 1, 4, and 7 if need be, which would still be 7 games at most. These games are the crucial games, and this is where you have to factor in the added value of having him make those starts over a guy like Joe Blanton or Jamie Moyer. As serviceable as those guys are, neither has the raw stuff or the pedigree of Halladay over the last 5 years.

B = the value of the prospects given up. And this is truly the hardest part to gauge. Right now, of the guys being mentioned, only Happ and Marson have major league experience. Taylor appears close to ML ready. Drabek appears close to ready. Brown's ETA is likely the latter part of 2011. Donald and Marson are both close to big league ready. Lets assume that its going to be 4 players, and just for this exercise, lets assume its Drabek, Taylor, Donald and Marson. That's 4 players with zero service time. Marson has a very minimal amount of service, so lets just give him the full 6 years

Marson = 6 years
Donald = 6 years
Drabek = 6 years
Taylor = 6 years

That's 24 years of service time going to the other team. Its impossible to quantify the value of those 24 years, because not every year is the same. Its possible that none of these players ever produce a major league season with a value of that of a replacement player. Its possible all four guys are just replacement players. This option is highly unlikely, but its still a possibility. If these players all become superstars, players with a WARP of 6 or higher, early in their careers, then this trade, value wise, does not work no matter how well Halladay pitches for the Phillies. But the odds of any prospect becoming a star are long, even the best prospects. Players go through injuries, players have bad seasons, anything can happen. A few years ago, Alex Gordon was going to be the next George Brett. He was the top prospect in baseball and looked like a cornerstone of the Royals franchise. In his first 1,000 big league AB's, he has a composite line of .249/.330/.416, with a cumulative WARP of 5.0. This year he's battled his first major injury, and is actually a negative value player. And this was a guy who was hyped up more than all of the Phillies prospects mentioned combined.

Not every prospect gets hurt. But its impossible to know what will come of the Phillies guys mentioned. This isn't an attempt to talk any of them down, obviously I'm just the opposite considering the amount of time and resources I place into working on minor league coverage. If Taylor does become a star, then he's going to be very valuable, ditto Drabek. If Jason Donald becomes Mark DeRosa, there's a ton of value in that, and Marson looks like, at worst, a slightly below average offensive player, but a little better than that considering the position.

C I kind of covered above. Halladays' contribution to the Phillies is about 100 IP in the regular season, anywhere from 1-7 postseason starts, and then his 2010, which should be anywhere from 190-240 regular season innings and any postseason starts. The revenue from jersey sales is something that I won't even try to dissect because of the revenue sharing aspect, but its fair to see that the team would see some bump up in merchandising from the deal. Halladay's unadjusted WARP from 2005-2008 was 25.3. You're looking at an upper echelon starter. His production in that span falls behind Johan Santana's, fairly significantly (Santana was 34.3 from 2005-2008), but it still ranks him right with guys like Brandon Webb (30), Jake Peavy (26.9), CC Sabathia (25.6), and ahead of guys like Josh Beckett (18.8). Pitching in the toughest division in baseball, in the tougher league (with the DH) depresses his numbers to some degree, and moving to the NL should improve raw numbers like WARP even more. A 7 win season is nothing to sneeze at, and the big man is showing no signs of regression or slowing down.

D is the final part of this equation. If Halladay were to walk away and go to the highest bidder, then the Phillies will receive those 2 extra first round picks, both of which will be among the top 75 selections, and both could actually come in the first 35 picks. Those picks have considerable long term value. And if both of those prospects eventually bloom into elite prospects like Drabek and Taylor, you've recovered half of the theoretical 24 years of service time you traded away to get Halladay. If Halladay resigns with the Phillies, you're probably going to have to sign him to a 4 year deal with an AAV of between $18-20M. That's probably going to be more than his actual on paper value. But if the Phillies retain the majority of their team, they will still be gaining value for his innings and quality performances. Should the team fall out of contention, he can again be traded, and again you're looking at bringing in prospects that will regain some of the lost value.

So, to summarize

Cost = $20.58M in salary plus 24 years of ML service time
Return = $30M worth of performance in the regular season + playoff performance, plus the possibility of 12 years of service time from future players acquired if Halladay walks.

Do the long division, and it looks more like

Cost, $20.58M in salary + 12 years of service time from players lost.

Now, is 1.5 years of Halladay, one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball, worth those 12 years? On paper, we're getting a $10M bargain based on Halladay's theoretical value. That $10M could be offset or trumped by the performance of the players we give up.

This is a ridiculously complex decision. But the part that is most clear is the asset we'd be receiving. Halladay is an ace. He does improve our chances of winning a 3rd straight division title, a 2nd straight pennant, and a World Series. How much are the chances improved? 5% more? 10% more? 20% more? How much stronger does he make the team in 2010? In the Phillies 100+ year history, they've never won 4 straight division titles.

The final variable that I didn't list above is X, and that is the farm system post Drabek/Taylor/Donald/Marson. I ranked those guys #3, #6, #4, and #2 respectively this past winter. Drabek and Taylor have seen their stocks rise, and would now probably be #1 and #3. Donald and Marson have seen their stocks fall (Donald substantially, Marson less so). This trade would leave us with Carrasco, Knapp, Brown, and D'Arnaud, who would be Top 10 prospects in a large handful of other teams farm systems, plus a big collection of guys behind them. This trade would scrape a bunch of the top tier talent out of the system, but it would not gut it. Far from it. Coming into this season, Drabek was a huge question mark, and scouts were still doubting Taylor. Neither guy was a slam dunk, untradeable prospect. In fact, Donald and Marson were touted almost as much by other outlets. In prospect land, it only takes one, two, three months for your stock to either rise dramatically or fall dramatically. The organization has to weigh everything, has to decide when to sell or protect.

For a modest upgrade, I generally think its smart to hold what you have. For a difference maker, an elite talent, I think its often times wise to trade for the known commodity and then focus on replacing the commodities you've just traded. You can do this via the draft and the international market. The Phillies could "replace" Drabek and Taylor by signing Brody Colvin (7th round) and Jake Stewart (14th round) for around $2M. They could "replace" Lou Marson by signing Andrew Susac (16th ) for another $800K.

There are a ton of moving parts here. I think this "window of opportunity" stuff has some truth to it, but its not a zero sum game. The Phillies are not a small market team, and they don't behave like one anymore. I dont think you'll ever see the team behave like the Red Sox or Yankees, but they don't have to. The days of 75 win teams are probably gone as long as the team remains in the current owners' hands. The farm system is stronger now than it ever has been, and even if we lose 4 premium guys, there are others who can step up. This current core is arguably the greatest core in franchise history. The Phillies front office should be looking to maximize the return that these guys can provide, while also figuring out how to transition onto the next group of guys. But they have 2.5 years to plan for that transition, and they can do that with this year's draft class, next year's class, and then using their financial resources to address needs in 2012 and beyond.

Ruben should act decisively, but smartly. Don't bid against yourself, but don't be too passive. There are a lot of smart GM's out there, and a lot of aggressive GM's who may be willing to pick up a dropped ball. If Rube plays his cards right, he'll get Halladay for a reasonable sum, and then be able to get close to his money's worth no matter what decision he chooses to make with him after 2010. The next 12 days are going to be tedious, but I'm comfortable with where the team is headed over the next 2.5 years.

Holy shit














Holy shit











EDIT: Holy shit

I'm only about halfway through that post, but just thought I'd say "great breakdown" before I forgot everything else I knew about anything.