I told you the Cards were out.

Rival teams say the Brewers have enough prospects to make a Halladay deal, even though they've suggested they won't trade Alcides Escobar or Mat Gamel. One intriguing possibility: A team that talked to the Brewers was told that shortstop J.J. Hardy could be available "in the right deal."

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/11969593/rss

Thats hilarious. They can get Halladay without giving up their top 2 prospects, but the Phillies have to give up their top 3 or 4.

mcare89 wrote:

CrashburnAlley wrote:

mcare89 wrote:I don't know of any evidence to say that his defense is worse than above-average.

Link. Find 2009 CF. Go all the way to the right under UZR/150.

I'm not gonna lie, I don't even know what that means.

I'll take your word for it that it's not good, but is moving Werth to center and sticking Taylor in right really that much better an option?

I don't understand all the "Werth in CF" talk in the desire to trade Victorino. I assume much of that is Taylor love (a means to make room for Taylor). Werth's played something like 10% of his major league games in CF (most last year when Victorino was hobbled), and his CF fielding % is more than 20 points lower than in RF. Werth's .970 vs Victorino's .996 appears to be a significant drop in CF competency. Werth's best used at corner OF.

Using fielding % is ridiculous.

Brantt wrote:I told you the Cards were out.

Good news, although it seems to have ignited the Brewers' interest, with their division rival having bowed out.

Heres a look at the Brewers top 11, via Goldstein this winter

Escobar, SS = 4 stars
Lawrie, C = 4
Gamel, 3B = 4
Jeffress, RHP = 4
Salome, C = 4

four were 3 stars, and then two 2 stars

Now there are some problems here. First, Lawrie is no longer a C, he's been moved to 2B, and scouts don't know if he can stick there. In fact, no one seems to know where he will play in the bigs. He's got a great bat, but hes in A ball. Gamel is a 3B only in name, most scouts think he'll end up having to move to 1B or LF, and he didnt impress in the bigs this year. Jeffress just started his 100 game suspension for smoking ganj, and Salome is a 5'6 catcher, who again scouts don't project as a major league regular behind the plate, because he has such a small frame.

The Phillies top 5 guys rank ahead of the Brewers contingent, especially if you believe this about the Brewers not even being willing to trade Gamel and Escobar.

ek wrote:

S2D wrote:

ek wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:alot of Brewers/Halladay chatter on the internets this morn

something tells me he'd reject that trade and invoke the no-trade. are the brewers perennial contenders?

Do they have to be? I just thought the acquiring team had to have a better shot to make the post season than the Jays facing Boston, NY, and Tampa.

Honestly, I think Halladay wants out bad enough, he'd go anywhere if the team was in the hunt. Phillies have to take this seriously.

I've heard the term perennial contenders mentioned a bunch

I'm trying to put myself in Halladay's position... If Riccarrdi comes to you and says 'it's here or Milwaukee', I'm taking the Brewers.

i love the "they dont have enough" meme

Again, Kurkjian just needs to go back to clipping out his boxscores and telling us zany stuff about how a game in 1897 was like the Phillies' 22-1 game against the Reds. He's so far out of the loop it's not even funny. Let me know the last time Kurkjian broke any story. He's better suited as some sort of baseball historian. It's Heyman, Rosenthal, Blair or bust here.

He's "heard" the Phillies don't have enough. great reporting Tim.

FTN wrote:i love the "they dont have enough" meme

He's working off a 2006 assessment of the farm system.

ek wrote:. We need to check back on this not just every day, but it's going to change almost by the hour.

Tim clearly owns shares in various sports-themed social media enterprises

ek wrote:Olney is saying the phils aren't going to overpay because we are winning.

I believe the opposite is true. The better our odds to reach October (and make noise), the more we need Halladay. And the better Amaro's poker face.

What does overpay even mean? In my opinion, we overpaid Moyer, because he probably would have signed for less. But that's the only definition of overpay that I understand. If it takes Drabek to get Halladay, and that's what happens, then we didn't overpay, because that's what the market is for Halladay.

If you want an Escalade, you'll pay at minimum 60 gs for it. Now, you can say, that's too much for a Chevy Yukon with a Cadillac badge, but then you aren't going to be driving an Escalade.

The question is really do we want to sacrifice a prospect who may turn out to be a very good major league pitcher for a couple of guys who might be very good major leaguers one day. And consider, even if you end up giving them 4 top prospects, odds are only 2 really end up being good.

I guess the argument is that if you pay that now, you get Halladay. Since it's likely the Phils are in a position to be the only team able to get Halladay, they can wait until the Jays decide to take less. The Jays know that they'll lose value in Halladay if he isn't traded by the deadline, so they may have to accept they won't get Drabek.

In other words, there is no set value for Halladay like there is in prices for a car. Timelines and other circumstances increase or decrease his value

FTN wrote:Using fielding % is ridiculous.

What other fielding metrics would indicate Werth would be more than adequate in CF, that compensate for the additional runs, bases, etc. resulting from the additional errors? I'm sure you know the "expepcted zone" for CF is larger than corner OF and thus some metrics won't translate accurately from one position to the other.

If you believe middle defense is irrelevant to winning baseball, that's even more rediculous. A good defense is built from the middle on out. You need to have plus defense up the middle (2B, SS, CF, C), you can't have a weak link and expect to contend. This is one of the basics of baseball, baseball 101. Of course you can't go "all glove no bat", but you can't discount the glove with regards to middle defense.



(I may have provided sig material for someone... "you can't discount the glove" )

The Dude wrote:I guess the argument is that if you pay that now, you get Halladay. Since it's likely the Phils are in a position to be the only team able to get Halladay, they can wait until the Jays decide to take less. The Jays know that they'll lose value in Halladay if he isn't traded by the deadline, so they may have to accept they won't get Drabek.

In other words, there is no set value for Halladay like there is in prices for a car. Timelines and other circumstances increase or decrease his value

Actually it is a bit like a car analogy. Think of the new model year for a car. The 2010's are coming in, so the 2009's are discounted to move, even if they're practically the same car. I think JPR's in a similar position. The longer he waits, the more he has to concede.

Another thing he might have to worry about. What if Cleveland decides in the next week that Lee is available?

I agree with that, but TV was using a different model altogether in his analogy. It's either that car or a lesser model

GrizzledVeteran wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:

stevemc wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:Total gut speculation on my part: Rube caves, includes Drabek, Phils get Halladay within next 48 hours for: Drabek, Carrasco, Taylor, Donald.

Interesting - and then your gut tells you the rotation is. . .? (since that will leave 6 viable starters and assuming Moyer & Martinez both won't retire immediately)

Pedro becomes the closer after Lidge puts up a 13.87 ERA over the next 3 weeks and goes on the DL for the rest of the year.

Moyer and Pedro share games. Each gets 4 innings.

That would be an insult to both of them, will never happen.

Screw it, throw in the Liberty Bell