Floppy is the Bruyneel of halladay trade analysis.

that's what he's been doing instead of coming up with new Family Feud boards

my initial offer would now be drabek+donald/marson+kendrick/savery.
my absolute final offer would be drabek+brown/taylor/happ +donald/marson.
somewhere in between is trading both donald and marson, or kendrick+savery, or carpenter instead of kendrick/savery.

my only remaining uncertainties are is whether i like taylor more than brown and whether, in negotiating my final offer, i would try harder to keep both brown and taylor, or to keep happ. right now, i think i would try harder to keep happ. taylor and brown are dead even for me right now.

reasoning:
(a) the drabek thing has been hyped enough that including him might be enough to let us hold onto the rest of our top prospects. gotta at least try.
(b) tinstaapp. brown and taylor much less likely to be taken out by injury than is drabek.
(c) yesterday changed my mind again... i really want to keep happ if at all possible. only the recent surge by carpenter and the signing of pedro make me willing to offer him in my maximal package. happ's record of major league success and sub 4.50 fip despite the lucky babip represent proven value that outweighs much of drabek's potential. he's young and cheap enough to bridge the gap to our prospects at the lower levels.
(d) keeping both taylor and brown gives us the potential for low cost replacements of two of victorino/werth/ibanez/howard. trying to move victorino to make room for taylor this offseason seems like a no-brainer. additionally ibanez is old enough to go down at any time, and could also be moved to 1b if the phils need to unload howard's salary in order to afford to resign halladay.
(e) we have to try to keep at least one of donald/marson cause having both brunt and bako on the playoff roster is intolerable!

I don't even know what to think anymore.

Just the fact that the rumors and reports are changing constantly everyday on this, makes me think this is gonna happen. If it were all one-sided that the Phils were definitely getting him or that the Phils were going to offer whatever it takes, would make me think this trade wasn't going to happen.


Does that make sense?

Halladay is filthy disgusting evil. Give them everyone

phorever wrote: happ's record of major league success and sub 4.50 fip despite the lucky babip represent proven value that outweighs much of drabek's potential.

I'm no expert, but in terms of statistical nutrition, FIP looks to contain more fudge than Franklin's General Store.

I'm mostly with the Reverend on this, but find myself looking up recipes for second-course farm children. Pick out a few, fricassee in plenty of butter, serve to JP in low light with romantic music, and enjoy a big ladleful of Halladay sauce.

FTN, sorry, got a phone call while reading the post. Could you repeat that?

I remain amazed that there hasn't been a leak as to what has actually been offered/demanded at this point.

...just speculation.

alot of Brewers/Halladay chatter on the internets this morn

FTN has a girlfriend?

The "fielding stats" are laughable.

They have Victorino as one of the three worst defensive center fielders in baseball. Can anyone with a brain actually argue that has any merit whatsoever? They say Aaron Rowand is significantly better defensively than Victorino..........again, same question.

Brantt wrote:The "fielding stats" are laughable.

They have Victorino as one of the three worst defensive center fielders in baseball. Can anyone with a brain actually argue that has any merit whatsoever? They say Aaron Rowand is significantly better defensively than Victorino..........again, same question.

Honestly, most fielding stats are garbage and rely on luck. I 've watched every single Phillies game with Victorino in centerfield, and think that my judgment of his defense is more valuable than some flawed statistics that don't take everything into account.

Dewan's is really the only one I marginally trust and he had Shane as the 7th best CF in MLB last year. I think that's fair.

Brantt wrote:The "fielding stats" are laughable.

They have Victorino as one of the three worst defensive center fielders in baseball. Can anyone with a brain actually argue that has any merit whatsoever? They say Aaron Rowand is significantly better defensively than Victorino..........again, same question.

Seriously. Fielding stats are hilarious.

FTN wrote:

GMAN wrote:

FTN wrote:Victorino's defense is suspect, I'm still not a believer there. And I think Werth is the better overall player.

I think its a situation where a team might pay more for perceived value than actual value. Victorino seems like a really exciting player who makes things happen. But his 117 OPS+ is a career high this year, and his .296 EqA this year is his high water mark, but still falls behind Werth's .307. Werth is actually working on his third straight season with an EqA over .300.

I wouldn't give Victorino away. But if someone was willing to overpay for him, I'd certainly move him. He's going to make like 5-6 million next year, at least, so he won't be much cheaper than Werth.

His defense is what ? The guy throws as well as any cf in the game. Has great speed and can chase down just about everything. His routes may not always be perfect, but the guy is the best defensive cf in the NL.

Oh and Werth is overvalued by many. It does not surprise me as numbers can be very deceptive. He is very poor against rh pitching and is on pace to k close to 150 times and hit .255. Michael Taylor may be better than him by next year.

you are incorrect on a number of counts which i will not explain because you will not listen and so that is the end of it afaiac

No please humor me. Try and tell me without using the silly stats, why Vic is not a good cf. I can't wait to hear your brilliance.

Great post, Floppy.

Maybe I'm just a coward, but I'm still worried that in that equation, B will end up being too huge for Halladay to realistically compensate for. But obviously there is risk on both sides - we could end up giving up nothing or multiple cheap all-star seasons.

The Globe:

Gillick – the former Blue Jays general manager who left in 1994, a year after Toronto drafted Halladay out of Arvada West High School outside Denver – was overheard in the press box discussing the severity of the pitcher’s groin ailment with Toronto team physician Ron Taylor.

So what stage are we in now? Expect news conference at 3pm?

Warszawa wrote:The Globe:

Gillick – the former Blue Jays general manager who left in 1994, a year after Toronto drafted Halladay out of Arvada West High School outside Denver – was overheard in the press box discussing the severity of the pitcher’s groin ailment with Toronto team physician Ron Taylor.

So what stage are we in now? Expect news conference at 3pm?

Wow. I don't want to read too much into it, but it seems unusual to allow another team's representative to talk to your team's physician outside the presence of the GM unless....

Is Gose eligible to be named in a trade or would he need to be a PTBNL?