My bizarre Roy Halladay obsession

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 16:10:56

dajafi wrote:While I agree that Happ shouldn't be going anywhere (unless including him means keeping Drabek), I don't know if seeing Lopez's name penciled into the #5 slot is any more comforting (or frightening) than that of Carpenter, Carrasco, or Kendrick.

Less frightening than Kendrick, Carrasco scares me because of all the problems he's had at AAA this year, and Carpenter sort of strikes me, as of right now, as a "never was" sort - a lifetime AAAer, etc. The pitching equivalent of Gene Schall, Jon Zuber, etc.

by **FTN** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 16:11:39

mozartpc27 wrote:With Lopez now down with a bum shoulder, the one thing Rube has to consider, IMO, is that it has become imperative that Happ not be included in any deal for Halladay. Either that, or they should sign or promote someone to that fifth spot forthwith, before they have any negotiations about Halladay. If the Blue Jays think the Phillies have only four arms for the rotation, the price on Halladay goes up. This is why I predicted that, if the Phillies were ever going to sign Pedro, it would be done today. Why wait otherwise? I don't think you screw around waiting on a guy in Lopez who's 33 with a shoulder injury, and being without a named fifth starter gives Toronto that more leverage, as it makes the Phillies that much more desperate for starting pitching.

If they sign Pedro today, he has until the 21st to get ready (they don't need him until after the ASB, and play resumes Friday for the Phillies, so they could conceivably go without a fifth starter for four games from that Friday, which gets you to the 21st).

The point is, if Pedro is an option, I would have expected him to be signed today, so he could start getting ready. The fact that they apparently haven't yet says to me they won't. I don't know if that's good, bad, or indifferent, but there it is.

With Pedro off the table, it becomes all the more imperative that the Phillies (1) identify, quickly, someone who can pass as a fifth starter, if only for the period during which they are negotiating with the Blue Jays, and (2) keep Happ. A rotation of:

Hamels
Halladay
Blanton
Moyer (OMG)
OMFG

is still scary to me, especially in the postseason (yes, I realize whoever fills the "OMFG" role will not be in the postseason rotation). Sure, Hamels and Halladay will be good, but they will be going up against the opponents' best pitchers (what if we - oh lord help us - play the Giants in the first round?), while Moyer is likely, in my mind, to be significantly worse than other team's fourth pitchers in playoff series.

Just my two cents.

If we don't need a 5th until the 22nd, why does it matter when we move for Halladay? We've got plenty of guys to call up. One thing doesn't mean anything to the other, in my opinion

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 16:14:48

FTN wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:With Lopez now down with a bum shoulder, the one thing Rube has to consider, IMO, is that it has become imperative that Happ not be included in any deal for Halladay. Either that, or they should sign or promote someone to that fifth spot forthwith, before they have any negotiations about Halladay. If the Blue Jays think the Phillies have only four arms for the rotation, the price on Halladay goes up. This is why I predicted that, if the Phillies were ever going to sign Pedro, it would be done today. Why wait otherwise? I don't think you screw around waiting on a guy in Lopez who's 33 with a shoulder injury, and being without a named fifth starter gives Toronto that more leverage, as it makes the Phillies that much more desperate for starting pitching.

If they sign Pedro today, he has until the 21st to get ready (they don't need him until after the ASB, and play resumes Friday for the Phillies, so they could conceivably go without a fifth starter for four games from that Friday, which gets you to the 21st).

The point is, if Pedro is an option, I would have expected him to be signed today, so he could start getting ready. The fact that they apparently haven't yet says to me they won't. I don't know if that's good, bad, or indifferent, but there it is.

With Pedro off the table, it becomes all the more imperative that the Phillies (1) identify, quickly, someone who can pass as a fifth starter, if only for the period during which they are negotiating with the Blue Jays, and (2) keep Happ. A rotation of:

Hamels
Halladay
Blanton
Moyer (OMG)
OMFG

is still scary to me, especially in the postseason (yes, I realize whoever fills the "OMFG" role will not be in the postseason rotation). Sure, Hamels and Halladay will be good, but they will be going up against the opponents' best pitchers (what if we - oh lord help us - play the Giants in the first round?), while Moyer is likely, in my mind, to be significantly worse than other team's fourth pitchers in playoff series.

Just my two cents.

If we don't need a 5th until the 22nd, why does it matter when we move for Halladay? We've got plenty of guys to call up. One thing doesn't mean anything to the other, in my opinion

And Halladay wouldn't be taking the fifth starter's spot, necessarily, but it's just that the more desperate we appear to be for five competent arms, the more the price goes up for Halladay, right? So, if the Phillies want to (1) land Halladay ASAP and (2) for a reasonable price, they help themselves if they've got somebody they can say is their fifth starter that the Blue Jays won't laugh at.

I also continue to think that Happ cannot be included in any deal, if there is no fifth starter the Phillies can get that is better than Moyer (right now, there isn't - and I guess they don't think Pedro is that guy). Happ is too valuable to the team as contructed WITH Halladay. Giving him up destroys some of the rationale for getting Halladay, insofar as it weakens a potential playoff rotation.

by **pperc15** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 16:25:17

mozartpc27 wrote:
FTN wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:With Lopez now down with a bum shoulder, the one thing Rube has to consider, IMO, is that it has become imperative that Happ not be included in any deal for Halladay. Either that, or they should sign or promote someone to that fifth spot forthwith, before they have any negotiations about Halladay. If the Blue Jays think the Phillies have only four arms for the rotation, the price on Halladay goes up. This is why I predicted that, if the Phillies were ever going to sign Pedro, it would be done today. Why wait otherwise? I don't think you screw around waiting on a guy in Lopez who's 33 with a shoulder injury, and being without a named fifth starter gives Toronto that more leverage, as it makes the Phillies that much more desperate for starting pitching.

If they sign Pedro today, he has until the 21st to get ready (they don't need him until after the ASB, and play resumes Friday for the Phillies, so they could conceivably go without a fifth starter for four games from that Friday, which gets you to the 21st).

The point is, if Pedro is an option, I would have expected him to be signed today, so he could start getting ready. The fact that they apparently haven't yet says to me they won't. I don't know if that's good, bad, or indifferent, but there it is.

With Pedro off the table, it becomes all the more imperative that the Phillies (1) identify, quickly, someone who can pass as a fifth starter, if only for the period during which they are negotiating with the Blue Jays, and (2) keep Happ. A rotation of:

Hamels
Halladay
Blanton
Moyer (OMG)
OMFG

is still scary to me, especially in the postseason (yes, I realize whoever fills the "OMFG" role will not be in the postseason rotation). Sure, Hamels and Halladay will be good, but they will be going up against the opponents' best pitchers (what if we - oh lord help us - play the Giants in the first round?), while Moyer is likely, in my mind, to be significantly worse than other team's fourth pitchers in playoff series.

Just my two cents.

If we don't need a 5th until the 22nd, why does it matter when we move for Halladay? We've got plenty of guys to call up. One thing doesn't mean anything to the other, in my opinion

And Halladay wouldn't be taking the fifth starter's spot, necessarily, but it's just that the more desperate we appear to be for five competent arms, the more the price goes up for Halladay, right? So, if the Phillies want to (1) land Halladay ASAP and (2) for a reasonable price, they help themselves if they've got somebody they can say is their fifth starter that the Blue Jays won't laugh at.

I also continue to think that Happ cannot be included in any deal, if there is no fifth starter the Phillies can get that is better than Moyer (right now, there isn't - and I guess they don't think Pedro is that guy). Happ is too valuable to the team as contructed WITH Halladay. Giving him up destroys some of the rationale for getting Halladay, insofar as it weakens a potential playoff rotation.

Your argument implies that the falloff from Halladay to Happ is less than the fall off from Happ to a call-up/Lopez/Carrasco/Carpenter. Do you honestly believe that?

by **dajafi** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 16:25:59

mozartpc27 wrote:So, if the Phillies want to (1) land Halladay ASAP and (2) for a reasonable price, they help themselves if they've got somebody they can say is their fifth starter that the Blue Jays won't laugh at.

Again, I don't agree that Lopez is much more or less laughable than Carrasco, Kendrick or Carpenter. Just because you were scarred by KK's implosions, fear CC's inconsistency or see Carpenter as Zuber doesn't mean that Ricciardi would. For better or worse, you ain't him.

by **philliesphhan** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 16:28:53

mozartpc27 wrote:what if we - oh lord help us - play the Giants in the first round?

Then the Giants will get zero hits off Halladay/Hamels; their offense sucks ass.

by **Philly the Kid** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 16:47:11

Assuming Toronto is really going to trade him, and has a clear concept of what they want in return(they may not as of yet) -- and assuming he'd want to and or agree to come to Philly (why not they just won a WS and are in first place, he could be part of a WS winner) -- I don't think his "price goes up" if they think we are desperate for more arms. I think his price is already up because of who he is, and to give up a guy of that caliber who has been their star #1 for a while now - they want maximum value. I hope its like an Allen Iverson or Charles Barkley trade where the team getting him does way better than the team giving him up. His value to a team like the Phils is apparent to everyone in baseball. With Myers gone for the year and all the other problems, we have one top guy. This would give us in theory, the 1-2 punch at the top of the order. It not only helps us stay in 1st, it gives us a real chance in a series in post-season.

If there is a way to do it without giving up JA great, if not -- its probably still worth it. JA and Drabek may be too much because JA has value now this season to get us to post-season. No one knows if Drabek will ever materialize? That's the danger. Roy is known. We need him.

Get it done.

by **kenrosenthal** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 16:57:24

i really hope we dont take wells back. i was just looking at cotts, and he is due a ton of money over the next 5 years.

# 7 years/$126M (2008-14)

* signed extension with Toronto 12/06
* $25.5M signing bonus (paid in 3 $8.5M installments, March 1 2008-10)
* 08:$0.5M, 09:$1.5M, 10:$12.5M, 11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M
* full no-trade clause
* Wells may opt out of contract after 2011
* award bonuses: $0.25M for MVP, $0.2M for World Series MVP, $0.15M for LCS MVP, $0.1M for receiving most All-Star votes in league
* Wells to donate $143,000 annually to Blue Jays charity

by **Grotewold** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 16:58:19

kenrosenthal wrote: * Wells may opt out of contract after 2011

by **BIGPHILLY** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 16:59:12

If we could get Halladay for cheap (Prospect wise) by taking on Wells - would you bite?

Cheap = Carrasco, Kendrick and Hewitt (LOL)

by **Woody** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 16:59:48

"$63 million?! Naww fuck it, let's roll the dice"

by **kenrosenthal** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 17:03:15

and i pose a question to everyone:

would the blue jays accept a boatload of players as opposed to 4 very good players. easily put, would they accept quantity over quality?

for instance, this package

savery, carrasco, bastardo, donald, marson, worley, carpenter, and zags

for

halladay

i know that is a lot of good players. is it possible that toronto would do something like that? and for that matter, would the phils give up that many pieces to save drabek, taylor, and brown.

by **kenrosenthal** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 17:03:58

BIGPHILLY wrote:If we could get Halladay for cheap (Prospect wise) by taking on Wells - would you bite?

Cheap = Carrasco, Kendrick and Hewitt (LOL)

of course i would take a bite, but would ownership?

by **Stay_Disappointed** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 17:05:17

MLBDAILYDISH:

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch is reporting that the Cardinals have real interest in Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay. Halladay owns an impressive 10-2 record this season, with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 16 games. His dominance this season goes in tune with most of his career, which has been spent solely with the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Cardinals would have to unload their top prospects for Halladay, along with taking on most of his large contract. However, if the Cardinals agreed to take on most of his salary, they might be able to hold onto top prospect Brett Wallace. Still, a trade involving Halladay would likely cost them Peter Kozma, Bryan Anderson, and maybe even a player or two on their major league roster.

A move for Halladay would be huge for the Cardinals, and would put rival teams in a position to buy. The Cardinals are just one game ahead of the Brewers, with the Cubs just three games behind as well. Adding Halladay would give the Cardinals a huge boost in the NL Central and send the Cubs and Brewers a couple steps back.

If the Cardinals agreed to take on most of his salary, they might be able to hold onto top prospect Brett Wallace? Since when does picking up Halladay's salary have anything to do with anything? Does anyone actually expect Toronto to trade Halladay AND pick up part of his salary? HAHAHAHHA.

According to a report in the NY Post, the buzz around MLB is that if you want to acquire Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay you might also have to be willing to accept Blue Jays centerfielder Vernon Wells.

Wells, who still has $107 million remaining on his contract, is certainly not your typical throw in. Should this be the case expect this to greatly narrow down the teams that could possibly acquire Halladay. It probably would make only the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers and Angels the only contenders.

If you were thinking no way the Jays would trade Halladay within the AL East, think again. Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi made it clear that he has no problem moving Halladay to either the Yankees or Red Sox.

Halladay, who does have a full no-trade clause, likely would want to agree to an long-term extension before accepting any trade, which would make any package with Wells astronomically expensive.

I think the price for Halladay alone is probably going to be off the charts, so if Ricciardi demands Well's in the deal it's very unlikely that anything will actually happen. Unless of course a team can convince the Jays to take less in return in exchange for Well's contract, but that scenario is doubtful. For now we'll just have to wait and see.

If Wells' contract is involved there is probably only two teams that could be involved, and that's the Yankees and Dodgers. And if Wells is included in any deal his contract is so incredibly putrid you could probably get Wells+Halladay for nothing in return.

by **FTN** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 17:11:45

Are you high? The Dodgers had to give away one of the best prospects in baseball last year so the Indians would pick up the pennies on Casey Blake's deal because they couldn't afford to add payroll. They're not adding a salary like Wells or Rios

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 17:17:12

I'd rather take Rolen than Wells, but I think it's moot. I don't foresee anyone taking Vernon Wells' contract with what is left on it. Only team that would even consider it is the Yankees. Ugh, I just remembered why, historically, I've hated them.

by 1 » Thu Jul 09, 2009 17:19:39

sam donnellan just said that halladay is better than joe blanton.

by **karn** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 17:20:21

okay...ROFL

by **Titlehungry** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 17:21:45

Per ESPN Insider...

UPDATE: A fit for Halladay (and Wells?)

Roy Halladay | Blue Jays

Latest word is that whoever trades for Halladay will also have to take on the onerous contract of Vernon Wells. This according to the NY Post.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney listed the Phillies as the early 5-2 favorite in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes.

A package for the Blue Jays' ace will almost certainly include several top prospects. But, the Philadelphia Daily News points out, the Phillies have no intention of including 21-year-old right-hander Kyle Drabek in any deal. "It'd be tough for me to trade Drabek," manager Charlie Manuel said.

The Daily News also lists right-hander Jason Knapp and outfielder Dominic Brown as potential untouchables, regardless of the availability of Halladay. If the Phillies don't budge, would they have enough to offer the Blue Jays? Let's look everywhere else as well.

by **TheDude24** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 17:21:48

Two words: Andy Tracy. Deal done.

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My bizarre Roy Halladay obsession