My bizarre Roy Halladay obsession

by 1 » Thu Jul 09, 2009 11:48:28

The President wrote:To get Halladay I would give up F-Mart, Parnell and Maine or BigPelf.

by **Woody** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 11:51:02

I'll bet you would :lol:

by **CrashburnAlley** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 11:51:25

1 wrote:
The President wrote:To get Halladay I would give up F-Mart, Parnell and Maine or BigPelf.

To get a Porsche, I would give up a pen cap, a paper clip, and bellybutton lint or a rusty nail.

by **Trent Steele** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 11:51:49

1 wrote:
The President wrote:To get Halladay I would give up F-Mart, Parnell and Maine or BigPelf.

I love those guys. Who wouldnt want a 28 year old with a career 101 ERA+ and an annual history of arm problems, a one pitch reliever with a 4.64 ERA, and an overhyped, overrated prospect for the best pitcher in baseball?

by **FTN** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 11:53:36

Toronto's farm system really isn't that good. Snider is still a legit OF prospect, but he's an unathletic LF, he's not similar to Taylor. Their best prospect after Taylor is Brett Cecil, who is similar to JA Happ. Justin Jackson (SS), JP Arencibia (C), and Brad Emaus (2B) are some of their best prospects. Their farm system is weak though. Arencibia is maybe as good a prospect as Marson, and Emaus is maybe Jason Donald. Then they have a bunch of fringe guys. Drabek instantly becomes their best prospect, Taylor is probably a touch better than Snider right now, all things considered. They don't have a plethora of outfield prospects, they'd certainly be interested in Taylor or Brown.

If the deal goes down, its going to be 4 prospects including Drabek, or 5 prospects including Brown or Taylor. I think they'd have an interest in D'Arnaud, they'll want Donald, they'll want Marson, and they probably would be interested in Carrasco. I see 3 different deal outlines

Drabek, D'Arnaud, Donald, Savery
Taylor, Carrasco, Bastardo, Marson, Donald
Brown, Carrasco, Savery, D'Arnaud, De Fratus

We're going to have to give up a ton, no matter how you slice it.

by **Trent Steele** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 11:55:49

FTN wrote:Toronto's farm system really isn't that good. Snider is still a legit OF prospect, but he's an unathletic LF, he's not similar to Taylor. Their best prospect after Taylor is Brett Cecil, who is similar to JA Happ. Justin Jackson (SS), JP Arencibia (C), and Brad Emaus (2B) are some of their best prospects. Their farm system is weak though. Arencibia is maybe as good a prospect as Marson, and Emaus is maybe Jason Donald. Then they have a bunch of fringe guys. Drabek instantly becomes their best prospect, Taylor is probably a touch better than Snider right now, all things considered. They don't have a plethora of outfield prospects, they'd certainly be interested in Taylor or Brown.

If the deal goes down, its going to be 4 prospects including Drabek, or 5 prospects including Brown or Taylor. I think they'd have an interest in D'Arnaud, they'll want Donald, they'll want Marson, and they probably would be interested in Carrasco. I see 3 different deal outlines

Drabek, D'Arnaud, Donald, Savery
Taylor, Carrasco, Bastardo, Marson, Donald
Brown, Carrasco, Savery, D'Arnaud, De Fratus

We're going to have to give up a ton, no matter how you slice it.

I would do them all. I would do 2 and 3 in a nanosecond.

by **Squire** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:00:44

Does Drabek, Carrasco and Donald get it done? I'd do that and maybe even throw in someone other than Taylor, Brown, Savery, Marson to get it done.

SQUIRE

by **FTN** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:04:33

Squire wrote:Does Drabek, Carrasco and Donald get it done? I'd do that and maybe even throw in someone other than Taylor, Brown, Savery, Marson to get it done.

SQUIRE

I dont think thats enough. I think they're going to want another guy from our Top 10.

Side note, I know Toronto loved D'Arnaud leading up to the draft, so don't be shocked if his name pops up in the official rumor mill. He's had a real bad year so far, but Im sure they are still interested.

by **GMAN** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:11:41

Squire wrote:Does Drabek, Carrasco and Donald get it done? I'd do that and maybe even throw in someone other than Taylor, Brown, Savery, Marson to get it done.

SQUIRE

It's close. Add Knapp or Happ and it works.

by **GMAN** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:12:32

FTN wrote:Toronto's farm system really isn't that good. Snider is still a legit OF prospect, but he's an unathletic LF, he's not similar to Taylor. Their best prospect after Taylor is Brett Cecil, who is similar to JA Happ. Justin Jackson (SS), JP Arencibia (C), and Brad Emaus (2B) are some of their best prospects. Their farm system is weak though. Arencibia is maybe as good a prospect as Marson, and Emaus is maybe Jason Donald. Then they have a bunch of fringe guys. Drabek instantly becomes their best prospect, Taylor is probably a touch better than Snider right now, all things considered. They don't have a plethora of outfield prospects, they'd certainly be interested in Taylor or Brown.

If the deal goes down, its going to be 4 prospects including Drabek, or 5 prospects including Brown or Taylor. I think they'd have an interest in D'Arnaud, they'll want Donald, they'll want Marson, and they probably would be interested in Carrasco. I see 3 different deal outlines

Drabek, D'Arnaud, Donald, Savery
Taylor, Carrasco, Bastardo, Marson, Donald
Brown, Carrasco, Savery, D'Arnaud, De Fratus

We're going to have to give up a ton, no matter how you slice it.

None of those deals is enough for the Jays.

by **The Dude** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:13:32

GMAN wrote:
Squire wrote:Does Drabek, Carrasco and Donald get it done? I'd do that and maybe even throw in someone other than Taylor, Brown, Savery, Marson to get it done.

SQUIRE
It's close. Add Knapp or Happ and it works.

Those are two pretty significantly different values, aren't they?

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:16:47

The Dude wrote:
GMAN wrote:
Squire wrote:Does Drabek, Carrasco and Donald get it done? I'd do that and maybe even throw in someone other than Taylor, Brown, Savery, Marson to get it done.

SQUIRE
It's close. Add Knapp or Happ and it works.

Those are two pretty significantly different values, aren't they?

But it rhymes :idea:

by **FTN** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:18:05

GMAN wrote:
FTN wrote:Toronto's farm system really isn't that good. Snider is still a legit OF prospect, but he's an unathletic LF, he's not similar to Taylor. Their best prospect after Taylor is Brett Cecil, who is similar to JA Happ. Justin Jackson (SS), JP Arencibia (C), and Brad Emaus (2B) are some of their best prospects. Their farm system is weak though. Arencibia is maybe as good a prospect as Marson, and Emaus is maybe Jason Donald. Then they have a bunch of fringe guys. Drabek instantly becomes their best prospect, Taylor is probably a touch better than Snider right now, all things considered. They don't have a plethora of outfield prospects, they'd certainly be interested in Taylor or Brown.

If the deal goes down, its going to be 4 prospects including Drabek, or 5 prospects including Brown or Taylor. I think they'd have an interest in D'Arnaud, they'll want Donald, they'll want Marson, and they probably would be interested in Carrasco. I see 3 different deal outlines

Drabek, D'Arnaud, Donald, Savery
Taylor, Carrasco, Bastardo, Marson, Donald
Brown, Carrasco, Savery, D'Arnaud, De Fratus

We're going to have to give up a ton, no matter how you slice it.

None of those deals is enough for the Jays.

Says the guy who considers Knapp a throw in prospect

by **Stay_Disappointed** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:18:48

some dude called up 610 this morning and compared Taylor to Vlad Guerrero and Andre Dawson

by **Squire** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:18:51

GMAN wrote:
Squire wrote:Does Drabek, Carrasco and Donald get it done? I'd do that and maybe even throw in someone other than Taylor, Brown, Savery, Marson to get it done.

SQUIRE
It's close. Add Knapp or Happ and it works.

No to adding Knapp or Happ. Yes to adding one of Collier, Gose or d'Arnaud.

by **dajafi** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:20:57

The Dude wrote:
GMAN wrote:
Squire wrote:Does Drabek, Carrasco and Donald get it done? I'd do that and maybe even throw in someone other than Taylor, Brown, Savery, Marson to get it done.

SQUIRE
It's close. Add Knapp or Happ and it works.

Those are two pretty significantly different values, aren't they?

Depends what the goal is. If they want to make another half-assed run at relevance in 2010 (and Ricciardi might, if he thinks that will save his job), then they'd want Happ. If the idea is to get after it in, say, 2013, Knapp's obviously your man.

And this is maybe our problem (and definitely Toronto's problem). Is Ricciardi working for himself, or setting the table for the next Blue Jays GM? Honestly, were I Toronto's ownership, I'm not sure I'd let him make any huge trade--rather, I'd fire J.P. today, hold onto Halladay until the winter and then see if my next GM can maximize the return. I know this potentially sets up the Santana scenario, but at least you get strategic clarity.

by **FTN** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:21:28

Warszawa wrote:some dude called up 610 this morning and compared Taylor to Vlad Guerrero and Andre Dawson

he probably posts on my site, and is the same guy who thinks jason donald is better than jimmy rollins right now

by **cshort** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:22:26

With everyone seemingly convinced that Drabek is the real thing, and thus untouchable, why aren't the Phils bringing him up? It's not like they haven't brought up AA pitchers before. It sounds like he's past the stage where people are projecting that he's good, but are now at a point where they're convinced he's that good. If he's too good to include in a package for one of the best pitchers in baseball, then let's see what he can do.

by **cshort** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:22:56

FTN wrote:
Warszawa wrote:some dude called up 610 this morning and compared Taylor to Vlad Guerrero and Andre Dawson

he probably posts on my site, and is the same guy who thinks jason donald is better than jimmy rollins right now

Bill Conlin posts on your site?

by **dajafi** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:33:32

on your Conlin line...

cshort wrote:With everyone seemingly convinced that Drabek is the real thing, and thus untouchable, why aren't the Phils bringing him up? It's not like they haven't brought up AA pitchers before. It sounds like he's past the stage where people are projecting that he's good, but are now at a point where they're convinced he's that good. If he's too good to include in a package for one of the best pitchers in baseball, then let's see what he can do.

Development and usage, I think. Drabek leads the minors in innings pitched. He's 21. And he threw something like 90 professional innings total in three seasons before 2009 (owing to the TJ surgery, of course). Asking him to come up now and take a regular turn in the rotation would be an I-want-it-now act far beyond trading the best five guys in the system for Halladay: it would virtually guarantee injury miseries for years to come, without a guarantee that Drabek would be that much more effective than a far less talented but more seasoned guy like Rodrigo Lopez.

I wouldn't be averse to seeing him come up in a relief role with absolute usage restrictions, a la Joba Chamberlain in his first year with the Yankees. But you can't chance blowing him out when there are many other options with almost as much immediate upside and far less long-term risk.

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My bizarre Roy Halladay obsession