My bizarre Roy Halladay obsession

by **JFLNYC** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:04:02

Now that I think about it, the smart thing for Rube to do would be to get on the horn to Shapiro and offer him a package for Lee similar to what he's offering for Halladay -- and let both Shapiro and JP know that whoever says "yes" first gets the deal. Without the Phils in the hunt (and assuming that a deal with the Yanks or Sox is not going to happen), JP's alternatives become a lot more limited. I'd prefer Halladay, but would be thrilled to get Lee and playing them off against each other just might increase the possibility that at least one will happen.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:04:43

JFLNYC wrote:Now that I think about it, the smart thing for Rube to do would be to get on the horn to Shapiro and offer him a package for Lee similar to what he's offering for Halladay -- and let both Shapiro and JP know that whoever says "yes" first gets the deal. Without the Phils in the hunt (and assuming that a deal with the Yanks or Sox is not going to happen), JP's alternatives become a lot more limited. I'd prefer Halladay, but would be thrilled to get Lee and playing them off against each other just might increase the possibility that at least one will happen.

Smart thinkin'. Probably too smart for Rube, sadly.

by **traderdave** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:06:54

The Starks bit over at ESPN notes that Toronto is looking for five or six players one of which would preferably be a potential #1 starter who they can control for several years. He also puts the chances of Halladay actually be dealt at "5% to 10%".

by **JFLNYC** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:08:30

Let's suppose it were possible to get both Halladay and Lee, but you'd really and truly clean out the farm system doing it. For example:

. For Halladay: Drabek, Happ, Donald and Taylor.
. For Lee: Carrasco, Knapp, Marson and Brown.

That's a ton (actually 2 tons) to give up.

Who here would do it?

by **hoya** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:08:52

mozartpc27 wrote:At any rate, getting Halladay by giving up something off the ML roster doesn't really make sense.

... unless you have to in order to get him.

by **JFLNYC** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:10:42

traderdave wrote:The Starks bit over at ESPN notes that Toronto is looking for five or six players one of which would preferably be a potential #1 starter who they can control for several years.

Isn't that guy Drabek?

by **The Dude** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:11:38

This is not just a win now move, though. They will have him next year, too, and can decide to keep him further during that time. To set yourself up with a WS-caliber rotation for two years after winning one is about all you can ask for in a trade, especially with the way the core of the team is made up right now

by **JFLNYC** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:12:38

Halladay
Lee
Hamels
Blanton
Moyer

Who's with me? Hamels as your #3 starter! :lol:

by **Trent Steele** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:12:43

JFLNYC wrote:Let's suppose it were possible to get both Halladay and Lee, but you'd really and truly clean out the farm system doing it. For example:

. For Halladay: Drabek, Happ, Donald and Taylor.
. For Lee: Carrasco, Knapp, Marson and Brown.

That's a ton (actually 2 tons) to give up.

Who here would do it?

I would not. They won't/can't resign both of them after 20120. Completely gutting the system isnt worth it to me.

by **dajafi** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:13:36

JFLNYC wrote:Now that I think about it, the smart thing for Rube to do would be to get on the horn to Shapiro and offer him a package for Lee similar to what he's offering for Halladay -- and let both Shapiro and JP know that whoever says "yes" first gets the deal. Without the Phils in the hunt (and assuming that a deal with the Yanks or Sox is not going to happen), JP's alternatives become a lot more limited. I'd prefer Halladay, but would be thrilled to get Lee and playing them off against each other just might increase the possibility that at least one will happen.

One of my first thoughts about the Halladay news was that it potentially brings down the price for guys like Lee, Haren, Harang et al--none of whom are as good as Halladay, but all of whom would be enormous upgrades for our rotation.

Still not sure my best case scenario isn't getting Harang for something like Donald and Worley, while keeping the top 4-5 guys in the system.

by **Soren** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:16:47

JFLNYC wrote:Now that I think about it, the smart thing for Rube to do would be to get on the horn to Shapiro and offer him a package for Lee similar to what he's offering for Halladay -- and let both Shapiro and JP know that whoever says "yes" first gets the deal. Without the Phils in the hunt (and assuming that a deal with the Yanks or Sox is not going to happen), JP's alternatives become a lot more limited. I'd prefer Halladay, but would be thrilled to get Lee and playing them off against each other just might increase the possibility that at least one will happen.

I thought GMs generally tried to be all buddy buddy and keep negotiations basically friendly?

by **hoya** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:16:56

Trent Steele wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:Let's suppose it were possible to get both Halladay and Lee, but you'd really and truly clean out the farm system doing it. For example:

. For Halladay: Drabek, Happ, Donald and Taylor.
. For Lee: Carrasco, Knapp, Marson and Brown.

That's a ton (actually 2 tons) to give up.

Who here would do it?

I would not. They won't/can't resign both of them after 20120. Completely gutting the system isnt worth it to me.

Me either. I don't see how the Phils could handle the payroll implications of acquiring 2 expensive players and giving up 8 cheap ones.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:18:01

JFLNYC wrote:
traderdave wrote:The Starks bit over at ESPN notes that Toronto is looking for five or six players one of which would preferably be a potential #1 starter who they can control for several years.

Isn't that guy Drabek?

This is all positioning, sounds like to me. If the Phillies offer Drabek + Taylor + Donald, I've got to think this is a done deal, Stark's percentages notwithstanding. The Blue Jays are never going to get a better return than that.

by **BIGPHILLY** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:20:36

See - despite what we did last Fall - I just think you don't want to be calling on Harang as your #2 in the playoffs.

I think you want to come out with Hamels/Halladay right off the bat in the playoffs with our offense and you're cooking.

Hamels/Harang - does't make me see repeat.

Maybe we can get Oswalt too and call them H20.

by **lowcountry** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:22:02

Not to duplicate post, since I already did it in the Happ thread, but laying out the playoff rotations makes it pretty clear how big an addition Halladay would be.

by **phatj** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:25:21

mozartpc27 wrote:At any rate, getting Halladay by giving up something off the ML roster doesn't really make sense. If you're finishing off the roster to win now, then you want to make this an all-propsects deal. I'd do Taylor, Kendrick, Donald, and, if I had to, Carrasco too, before I'd offer Happ. Maybe it's just me, but I don't really believe the latter will ever amount to much, as another poster has said.

I disagree. Consider how weak the NL East is; the Phillies might be able to win it without making a move at all, but upgrading from Happ to Halladay not only increases the chances of making the playoffs, but makes the Phillies truly formidable should they get there.

And, in theory, putting Happ in the deal decreases the value in prospects necessary to get the deal done, which in turn increases the team's ability to make other moves, now or in the future.

by **Woody** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 13:50:44

"On a scale of one to 10, this guy's a 500," one douchebag said.

by **philliesr98** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 14:01:41

The Jays will want one MLB-ready position player, one top pitching prospect who'll be ready by next year and at least a third top-of-the-line prospect, one competing executive said he heard. Whatever the requirements, the package will have to be huge in terms of talent, everyone agrees.

well if that doesn't scream Drabek Donald Taylor

I dont know what does... just do it

by **Phight On!** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 14:04:32

It's amazing how much difference a few months makes.

Carrasco was almost unanimously the Phils best prospect- or at least he was easily the top pitcher- on just about every prospect website's list. He had a bad start to the season and has gotten rocked on a few occasions to inflate his numbers. However he's looked like an ace over his last 3 starts to he might be turning things around- 19.1 IP, 18 H, 3 ER, 16K, and 7 BB as a 22 year old in AAA.

OTOH we didn't know what to expect from Drabek but he has looked incredible thus far as a 21 yo in AA which has increased his value exponentially.

From a value standpoint, we would be selling high on Drabek and selling low on Carrasco if we were to trade him so I'd almost prefer to deal Drabek as crazy as that may sound.

With all that being said we have to give up whoever Toronto wants to get this deal done. I would absolutely hate to sell the farm but if it takes Drabek, Carrasco, Brown, Taylor, and Marson I would still do it- although realistically, there is no way it would take that much to get it done. The team is built to win now and next year. Halladay is a horse and frankly is a better pitcher than Cole at this point in their careers. Having those two at the top of our rotation is the best chance we have to beat the Dodgers for the pennant and whoever comes out of the AL for the WS. Also don't forget we will have Myers coming back at some point as well whether it's a starter or reliever.

by **Phight On!** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 14:06:05

I missed Carrasco's start last night- of course he got rocked.

Archived

My bizarre Roy Halladay obsession