2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping roles

by **Uncle Milty** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 07:31:01

Are they really gaining anything by trading Arrieta if they pay half his salary? I think you can count on a healthy Jake as league average or slightly above. If you gain 10 million in space can you guarantee replacing that?

by **Uncle Milty** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 07:37:23

phorever wrote:judging from all published media reports and management quotes this offseason, it looks to me like the rest of the plan is
(1) sign didi, which they are fairly confident of doing
(2) make a serious, but not insane (stupid) offer to cole, because they are willing to go over the cap limit if and only if the player that puts them over is cole. however, they don't expect to win the bidding without paying him an insane salary.
(3) if didi is signed, meaning kingery is more available as a cf backup plan, trade obubel and all of his salary for a ptbnl. i think that they think they have a decent chance of succeeding and that, if they don't sign cole, this will put them around the $190million (tax-accounting) payroll.
(4) work simultaneously on identifying trade options and 3rd (or 4th)-tier fa options for acquiring at least one more starting pitcher for under $10 million aav, hoping for something like last year's acquisitions of mike minor by the rangers or of odorizzi by the twins (.... but maybe settling for the likes of smyly and vargas.... sigh...)

option 4 - Think we mentioned him before but Julio Teheran might fit here.

by **Uncle Milty** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 09:26:50

Given the news on viewing the tax threshold as a hard cap I started thinking about minor league deals, NRIs and reclamation projects.

Anything left to salvage in Clark Summit's own Cory Spangengerg?

EDIT: Nevermind. He's headed to Japan

by **Bucky** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 09:42:51

gr wrote:I have hated every single day of the Arrieta signing.

by **Wheels Tupay** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:41:05

Bucky wrote:
gr wrote:I have hated every single day of the Bucky signing.

by **Trent Steele** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:36:43

Uncle Milty wrote:Are they really gaining anything by trading Arrieta if they pay half his salary? I think you can count on a healthy Jake as league average or slightly above. If you gain 10 million in space can you guarantee replacing that?

Could be that he's a dick and everyone hates him. I do.

by 1 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:35:57

Bucky wrote:
gr wrote:I have hated every single day of the Arrieta signing.

I went to his first ST start. Think he gave up 5 runs in the first. My kids’ first time in Clearwater. It was a gorgeous day at least.

by **thephan** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 14:34:41

joe table wrote:Bump if this is bottom paged. He’s so grateful for these non US bot accounts

https://www.instagram.com/p/B5s9M7on0Iw ... 6y23faygbc

He's huge in Turkmenistan

by **swishnicholson** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 15:29:06

joe table wrote:Bump if this is bottom paged. He’s so grateful for these non US bot accounts

https://www.instagram.com/p/B5s9M7on0Iw ... 6y23faygbc

If I had my own IG account I'd give him credit: he keeps on swinging.

by **Shore** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 15:59:07

Uncle Milty wrote:Are they really gaining anything by trading Arrieta if they pay half his salary? I think you can count on a healthy Jake as league average or slightly above. If you gain 10 million in space can you guarantee replacing that?

The last time Arrieta didn't clearly decline from the year before was 2015. The last 4 years are basically straight declines in everything you want high (K rate, innings, starts, wins, etc) and straight inclines in everything else (H9, ERA, FIP, HR9, etc).

by **TempleFan22** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 16:22:21

Nightengale says the Phillies will strongly pursue Anthony Rendon, luxury tax be dammed. Donaldson as a fall back.

by **mcare89** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 16:22:25

Nightengale says we're going hard after Rendon and saying screw the luxury tax. The source is obviously one who has been questionable in the past but I'm mostly just happy to be nominated.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/m ... 355310002/

by gr » Fri Dec 06, 2019 16:24:40

On Arrieta, it's almost as if they overpaid for a declining player with a short prime who didn't provide much value and now soaks up 15% of the payroll when they could really use the money.

That's why #notmymoney is always a nonsense argument. You like a good team? Signings like this prevent you from watching one. But they happen over and over bc a team can't do the things it needs to do internally to get competitive.

by **momadance** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 16:37:04

mcare89 wrote:Nightengale says we're going hard after Rendon and saying screw the luxury tax. The source is obviously one who has been questionable in the past but I'm mostly just happy to be nominated.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/m ... 355310002/

Lerner said today or last night it's either Strasburg or Rendon but they can't afford to resign both.

by **Shadow** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 16:44:04

The Phillies are not going to seriously pursue Rendon from what I've heard. This is likely put out by Scott Boras to get other teams to up the ante more than they have been since crazy money is being thrown around early in the game.

And they are more interested in Cole than Strasburg, but highly highly likely will land neither. They have more interest in Bumgarner than either Strasburg or Cole right now.

by **mcare89** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 16:44:32

The more and more I look at this team I just don't see how they're a real competitor without busting the tax. Right now they need at least one more quality starting infielder and another mid-rotation starter, among other things, for about $20 million, which seems difficult. This team's only advantage in 2020 is going to be that they can outspend everyone else, and I think they just have to bite the bullet and use it if they really want to compete. I'm generally fairly tolerant of the idea of the luxury tax being a de facto cap, but the Phillies are just so lacking in terms of major league ready impact prospects that I feel like it's their only real path if winning now is really their goal.

by **JFLNYC** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 16:44:42

I’ve been wondering why they haven’t done the Didi deal if it’s as much of a foregone conclusion as everyone seems to think. Maybe the answer is they want to try to get Rendon or Donaldson first.

by **Shadow** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 16:53:22

Another thing I can think of is Jim Salisbury has said several times he's heard Boras will want to push Rendon or Cole to Philly because he wants Harper to win a World Series. It's possible Rendon wasn't in their plan but Boras is really pushing him on Middleton, but I do know Rendon hasn't been in their plans, nor should he be.

by **WilliamC** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 16:57:14

Boras gives a shit if his clients win a World Series?

I would take Rendon over Strasburg in a second.

by **mcare89** » Fri Dec 06, 2019 16:58:32

Shadow wrote:Another thing I can think of is Jim Salisbury has said several times he's heard Boras will want to push Rendon or Cole to Philly because he wants Harper to win a World Series. It's possible Rendon wasn't in their plan but Boras is really pushing him on Middleton, but I do know Rendon hasn't been in their plans, nor should he be.

I can absolutely buy the idea that this is Boras pushing the idea that the S.S. Stupid Money is ready to launch once more to try to drive up Rendon's price, but why do you think he shouldn't be in their plans? He was one of the best players in the sport last year, he's been consistently good for about three years now, and the Phillies have a hole at third base. Not only that, but signing Rendon would also potentially allow them to use Bohm as a trade chip for pitching rather than relying on him to come up and save the season in July.

gr's point abou #notmymoney is fair, and it's obviously a balancing act that you can't just keep spending money forever because there is opportunity cost, but this team as currently constructed just flat out isn't good enough, and their core is in its prime right now (Harper, Realmuto, Nola, Wheeler, all in their mid-late 20's.). What are we waiting for?

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