Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby philliesphhan » Sat Aug 10, 2019 18:01:07

mcare89 wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:Quinn is an elite basestealer. If he stays healthy, I'd love to have him in CF next season. He's almost always put up numbers. Health has been the issue.

He has a career OPS of .680 in 313 plate appearances. I think he's a perfectly nice player to have on your bench, but even taking his health out of the equation, he's not someone I would write in as an everyday starter for a team that's competing for anything.

Also, on the running against the shift thing, I just find it hard to believe that you guys thought of it and nobody in seven or eight-figure analytics departments has considered researching the idea of "if your opponent is shifting, does it make the running game more effective." The more likely scenario, IMO, is that they have researched it, and the answer would surprise you.


They're seeing what they want to see rather than what's actually happening
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Monkeyboy » Sat Aug 10, 2019 18:11:37

mcare89 wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:Quinn is an elite basestealer. If he stays healthy, I'd love to have him in CF next season. He's almost always put up numbers. Health has been the issue.

He has a career OPS of .680 in 313 plate appearances. I think he's a perfectly nice player to have on your bench, but even taking his health out of the equation, he's not someone I would write in as an everyday starter for a team that's competing for anything.

Also, on the running against the shift thing, I just find it hard to believe that you guys thought of it and nobody in seven or eight-figure analytics departments has considered researching the idea of "if your opponent is shifting, does it make the running game more effective." The more likely scenario, IMO, is that they have researched it, and the answer would surprise you.



or maybe they haven't gotten to that yet because these things are new and in flux. I mean, you have no idea what they have looked at. And maybe some teams are already taking advantage of it and you just don't know about it.

Quinn, as you mention, only has a little over 300 ABs spread over several seasons. He hasn't played enough in one stretch to say much of anything. But he has had success at every level when healthy, iirc. Maybe the rest of this season will show he's not a guy that is good enough, but I'm curious to find out given his mix of speed and power and defense. Of course, he probably won't stay healthy and we certainly can't count on him staying healthy/
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Monkeyboy » Sat Aug 10, 2019 18:15:59

philliesphhan wrote:
mcare89 wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:Quinn is an elite basestealer. If he stays healthy, I'd love to have him in CF next season. He's almost always put up numbers. Health has been the issue.

He has a career OPS of .680 in 313 plate appearances. I think he's a perfectly nice player to have on your bench, but even taking his health out of the equation, he's not someone I would write in as an everyday starter for a team that's competing for anything.

Also, on the running against the shift thing, I just find it hard to believe that you guys thought of it and nobody in seven or eight-figure analytics departments has considered researching the idea of "if your opponent is shifting, does it make the running game more effective." The more likely scenario, IMO, is that they have researched it, and the answer would surprise you.


They're seeing what they want to see rather than what's actually happening



This is what I said...

Maybe the stat nerds haven't looked at interaction effects yet. Running less might lead to more runs, but if you run less AND the other team is shifting, maybe it costs you runs. Maybe it's better to run if the other team is in a shift. There's a nerd PhD in there somewhere



I bolded the parts that you might want to pay attention to. I never said I believed anything, nor am I seeing what I want to see. I said MAYBE it's something that hasn't been looked at and MAYBE there are interaction effects. I also said maybe it could be looked at, which again implies that I don't know if it has any effect.

Maybe you are seeing what you want to see in my posts, since you seem to not have read the actual post.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby philliesphhan » Sat Aug 10, 2019 19:19:48

philliesphhan wrote:
They change the shift with runners on base. It's why Harper's average is so much higher with runners on. They don't just leave bases open to steal.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby JFLNYC » Sat Aug 10, 2019 20:15:27

wiivile wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:Nola hasn’t been very good this season either. Just sayin’.


10-3 and 3.67 is very good


His FIP and WHIP are the worst of his career and over 30% higher than last season and it’s only early August and he’s already given up more BB, HBP and HR than in any other season in his career. That’s not very good.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Monkeyboy » Sun Aug 11, 2019 03:28:50

philliesphhan wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:
They change the shift with runners on base. It's why Harper's average is so much higher with runners on. They don't just leave bases open to steal.


sure, we can have a discussion about that. I took issue with you saying I was seeing what I wanted to see. I was just wondering if there might be an interaction between those two variables. I wasn't saying there was one, just that I hadn't seen anything about it and wondered if there could be an effect. Maybe you are right and there's not. I don't really know and said "maybe" because I didn't know.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Ramon Gris » Sun Aug 11, 2019 04:10:14

Kingery, Haseley and Bohm are all coming out of our system this year and next. Hopefully Moniak in 2021. That's probably 5-7 all star seasons out of that group. For all the talk about how bad our farm system has gotten, that's not an embarrassment.

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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Monkeyboy » Sun Aug 11, 2019 05:38:38

I think you may be overestimating their expected performance, but I like the cut of your jib
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby TempleFan22 » Sun Aug 11, 2019 08:11:21

Ramon Gris wrote:Kingery, Haseley and Bohm are all coming out of our system this year and next. Hopefully Moniak in 2021. That's probably 5-7 all star seasons out of that group. For all the talk about how bad our farm system has gotten, that's not an embarrassment.


I’ll take the under here..
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby JFLNYC » Sun Aug 11, 2019 09:02:21

TempleFan22 wrote:
Ramon Gris wrote:Kingery, Haseley and Bohm are all coming out of our system this year and next. Hopefully Moniak in 2021. That's probably 5-7 all star seasons out of that group. For all the talk about how bad our farm system has gotten, that's not an embarrassment.


I’ll take the under here..


+1
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby philliesphhan » Sun Aug 11, 2019 14:44:57

Monkeyboy wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:
They change the shift with runners on base. It's why Harper's average is so much higher with runners on. They don't just leave bases open to steal.


sure, we can have a discussion about that. I took issue with you saying I was seeing what I wanted to see. I was just wondering if there might be an interaction between those two variables. I wasn't saying there was one, just that I hadn't seen anything about it and wondered if there could be an effect. Maybe you are right and there's not. I don't really know and said "maybe" because I didn't know.


It wasn't so much you (you just happened to be the one mcare replied to specifically) but wiiville suggesting they don't run enough, then I pointed out they're middle of the pack, then wiiville saying how do they compare to teams historically which I found to be so ridiculous I didn't even bother with it
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby wiivile » Sun Aug 11, 2019 15:21:02

ek wrote:let's call a spade a spade. as currently constructed they are just not good enough. bottom line. not enough pitching, hitting underacheiving


are they underachieving or are they not good enough? you are contradicting yourself

there's a big difference and it's the question everyone's asking. underachieving is much more easily fixed. everyone's hoping it's just underachieving.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby wiivile » Sun Aug 11, 2019 15:21:15

philliesphhan wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:
They change the shift with runners on base. It's why Harper's average is so much higher with runners on. They don't just leave bases open to steal.


sure, we can have a discussion about that. I took issue with you saying I was seeing what I wanted to see. I was just wondering if there might be an interaction between those two variables. I wasn't saying there was one, just that I hadn't seen anything about it and wondered if there could be an effect. Maybe you are right and there's not. I don't really know and said "maybe" because I didn't know.


It wasn't so much you (you just happened to be the one mcare replied to specifically) but wiiville suggesting they don't run enough, then I pointed out they're middle of the pack, then wiiville saying how do they compare to teams historically which I found to be so ridiculous I didn't even bother with it


rude

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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Ramon Gris » Sun Aug 11, 2019 15:23:59

TempleFan22 wrote:
Ramon Gris wrote:Kingery, Haseley and Bohm are all coming out of our system this year and next. Hopefully Moniak in 2021. That's probably 5-7 all star seasons out of that group. For all the talk about how bad our farm system has gotten, that's not an embarrassment.


I’ll take the under here..


You're probably right. I was thinking something like 3 from Kingery, and one for each of the other guys. Three is probably too optimistic to predict for anyone in that group, but tons of guys get all star selections nowadays. Some guy named Herrera got one for us in 2016.

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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby kruker » Sun Aug 11, 2019 16:02:55

Just for reference, Chase, Jimmy, Ryan and if you want to include Pat, combined for 12. 6 for Chase, 3 for the others. Just as a reference point.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby mtcal » Sun Aug 11, 2019 17:10:14

kingery'd have a better shot at an all star game if he had a position to play.

my vote is for the one he's supposedly really good at.
Not everything I think is something I should say.

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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby GrizzledVeteran » Sun Aug 11, 2019 17:30:13

Why the living fuck is Sean Rodriguez in the starting lineup tonight?
This is a simple game. You throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball.

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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby bleh » Sun Aug 11, 2019 17:37:49

.920 OPS vs lefties this year. .764 for his career.

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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby wiivile » Sun Aug 11, 2019 17:42:19

Phillies: we’re sending Haseley down so he can get reps.
Also Phillies: we’re starting Sean Rodriguez in LF tonight.

The Phillies process of developing left handed hitters is to sit them against lefties for the first three years of their career and then let them play when they’re 27 years old, at which point they will have magically discovered how to hit them.

Phillies when their hitting prospects never pan out:
Image
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby WilliamC » Sun Aug 11, 2019 17:45:17

GrizzledVeteran wrote:Why the living fuck is Sean Rodriguez in the starting lineup tonight?



I wish he would go away.
Do it again!

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