hasn't harper at least been great with runners on? so is it hoskins? cesar? kingery? segura?

Shadow wrote:I supported Hinkie and Brett Brown, and Doug after 2016 didn't end well.]

he actually had the ninth best point differential with a rookie QB and bad skill position guys

Hoskins has 145 plate appearances with RISP this year. 3 HR, 40 RBI, .245 BA and .785 OPS
Kingery - 70 PA, 2 HR, 21 RBI, .254, .773
Cesar - 126 PA, 0 HR, 37 RBI, .284, .725
Segura - 95 PA, 2 HR, 36 RBI, .306, .828
Harper - 118 PA, 6 HR, 52 RBI, .375. 1.131
Realmuto - 126 PA, 2 HR, 40 RBI, .239, .641

Realmuto and Hoskins have been pretty consistent with nobody on and runners on, Harper, on the other hand has been absurd.

Bases Empty: .174 .319 .343 .662
Someone on Base: .344 .435 .636 1.071

Then they bat him leadoff, where he is SURE to have at least one AB with nobody on, and he strikes out. Then he homers with nobody on base and with someone on base. The only thing I know for sure is I have no idea what this means.

Team ops with RISP is .745, 13th of 15 in the NL. Although the total team OPS is .740 (9th), so it's not like we become significantly more incompetent.

So I wonder what the differnce is with Harper with RISP. Is it his approach, focus, or are they pitching him differently because they have to come at him? Or maybe they are forced to lose the shifts with men on base? Wasn't Howard like that, much better when there was no shift?

harper gets a lot of flak but in reality the only thing really disappointing are his HR #'s and K's. but K's are normal for players with so many walks so i'm not complaining. when you run deep counts you will K. AVG is low but that's really an empty stat since it doesn't take into account that he's not just hitting singles and never walking.

maybe he shouldn't be/isn't a "cleanup/HR hitter". maybe he really is best as a leadoff hitter. he anecdotally looks like he swings too hard when trying to blast balls. if he choked up a bit and stopped trying to blast stuff he could help his offense a lot and maybe reduce K's.

mccutchen is coincidentally good example of a player who used to be an "mvp 3/4 hole hitter" type but now a great leadoff hitter. but they otherwise seem rare.

you dont typically see a $330 million leadoff hitter, but the other aspects of his game (defense, baserunning) are so good that i'm happy to pay him.

keep forgetting how young harper is. he is still defining his game. he's not even in his prime yet (defined as age 28-30 seasons). i'm all for harper trying harper at leadoff- he'll probably end up there anyway a la mccutchen after a few years since your batting eye is something that typically ages well.

it's ironic that we're discussing harper at leadoff when he's been so good with runners on tho. but that just seems like it only matters in the first inning? otherwise your leadoff hitter is the one who will get the most PA's.

idk i'm just thinking out loud. i don't really have a point to make except that i do like harper and am not disappointed in him at all

Monkeyboy wrote:So I wonder what the differnce is with Harper with RISP. Is it his approach, focus, or are they pitching him differently because they have to come at him? Or maybe they are forced to lose the shifts with men on base? Wasn't Howard like that, much better when there was no shift?

Don’t have the numbers but I think he gets a lot more fastballs with runners on.

Monkeyboy wrote:Or maybe they are forced to lose the shifts with men on base? Wasn't Howard like that, much better when there was no shift?

this seems like such a big deal imo and is one of the reasons why having a good running game is so important. it's not just the stolen bases but the THREAT of stolen bases that helps a team offensively. forcing the defense to hold runners on is like a snowball effect on the offense because it opens up holes in the defense. i'm not really a fan of kapler's opposition to the running game and it's my single biggest criticism of his managerial style. also a good running game can really prevent a pitcher from making good pitches because having to throw over constantly gets into the pitcher's head and encourages him to throw more hittable fastballs to give the catcher a chance to throw the runner out.

when you think about teams that "hit into bad luck" or have bad babip, is it really just luck or do teams that run less tend to have lower babip because it allows the defense to be better positioned?

I don't think they're opposed to stealing bases; they just don't want to be dumb about it. They're actually middle of the pack in SB in the NL, but only third in CS. And really, how many players do you really want running?

Segura stole 20 last season but was also caught 11 times. That's bad. He's a more respectable 7 of 9 this season
Hoskins and Franco both carry pianos on their backs so they don't run
Cesar could probably run a little more but his SB/CS vary between decent enough to kinda bad (17/13 in 2016 in particular stands out as rather bad)
JT seems to pick his spots which is good because he's been good at it so far this season 7/1
Harper seems mostly bad it so I'm fine with him not trying much 6/3
Roman hasn't been on base much and is 7/7 in steals

The only one who maybe could run more is Kingery as he seems to be pretty good about not getting thrown out

They aren’t stealing a whole lot but they’ve been really good at picking their spots the last couple months, they are 29 for 33 in steals since the middle of June

Kingery is actually a good basestealer. I'd like to see him run more.

Quinn is an elite basestealer. If he stays healthy, I'd love to have him in CF next season. He's almost always put up numbers. Health has been the issue.

signed nick vincent. released tom windle.

philliesphhan wrote:I don't think they're opposed to stealing bases; they just don't want to be dumb about it. They're actually middle of the pack in SB in the NL, but only third in CS. And really, how many players do you really want running?

Segura stole 20 last season but was also caught 11 times. That's bad. He's a more respectable 7 of 9 this season
Hoskins and Franco both carry pianos on their backs so they don't run
Cesar could probably run a little more but his SB/CS vary between decent enough to kinda bad (17/13 in 2016 in particular stands out as rather bad)
JT seems to pick his spots which is good because he's been good at it so far this season 7/1
Harper seems mostly bad it so I'm fine with him not trying much 6/3
Roman hasn't been on base much and is 7/7 in steals

The only one who maybe could run more is Kingery as he seems to be pretty good about not getting thrown out

running game is out of fashion league wide so maybe a historical comparison would be better than comparing us to other teams

just theorizing, but maybe having a bad SB/CS ratio isnt as bad as it looks on paper. again, its not the actual stolen bases that can help a team offensively as much as the threat of a stolen base. so even if you have a crappy 20/20 SB/CS ratio, even if you're not running, the team will pitch and play defense like you might be running, so you'll get better babip?

i'm not saying run into obvious outs, but just be more aggressive in general. take bigger leads, start and stop more often, etc. dunno if there's a stat for that kind of stuff.

which goes back to my original question... do teams with more SB or CS tend to have better babip? a team with problems beating the shift may want to look into running more often.

wiivile wrote:running game is out of fashion league wide

This is something that I don't understand. Why not run the bases? With the shifts that are being used, there are so many times when these are bags to be easily taken. If it was done often enough, some of the shifting would be curtailed. A single with a runner on first doesn't score. With one on second the odds are increased that he does. Move a runner over to third with a steal, lots of good things can happen that would lead to a run scored. Its easy to scorn one run but when one does it often enough in a game, it matters. Get them on; move them over; drive them in isn't as sexy as the long ball but it puts numbers on the scoreboard all the same.

also, this is public info and was reported in the press (i'll try to find a link when i get home), not private gossip or anything: cesar is on record as having wanted to run more, especially as a leadoff hitter where he had a .370+ OBP, but was discouraged from doing so by the coaching staff

i really do think this team's offensive problems are coaching related and are fixable

rolex wrote:

wiivile wrote:running game is out of fashion league wide

This is something that I don't understand. Why not run the bases? With the shifts that are being used, there are so many times when these are bags to be easily taken. If it was done often enough, some of the shifting would be curtailed. A single with a runner on first doesn't score. With one on second the odds are increased that he does. Move a runner over to third with a steal, lots of good things can happen that would lead to a run scored. Its easy to scorn one run but when one does it often enough in a game, it matters. Get them on; move them over; drive them in isn't as sexy as the long ball but it puts numbers on the scoreboard all the same.

Maybe the stat nerds haven't looked at interaction effects yet. Running less might lead to more runs, but if you run less AND the other team is shifting, maybe it costs you runs. Maybe it's better to run if the other team is in a shift. There's a nerd PhD in there somewhere

Monkeyboy wrote:

rolex wrote:

wiivile wrote:running game is out of fashion league wide

This is something that I don't understand. Why not run the bases? With the shifts that are being used, there are so many times when these are bags to be easily taken. If it was done often enough, some of the shifting would be curtailed. A single with a runner on first doesn't score. With one on second the odds are increased that he does. Move a runner over to third with a steal, lots of good things can happen that would lead to a run scored. Its easy to scorn one run but when one does it often enough in a game, it matters. Get them on; move them over; drive them in isn't as sexy as the long ball but it puts numbers on the scoreboard all the same.

Maybe the stat nerds haven't looked at interaction effects yet. Running less might lead to more runs, but if you run less AND the other team is shifting, maybe it costs you runs. Maybe it's better to run if the other team is in a shift. There's a nerd PhD in there somewhere

yeah, the stats don't take into account that they're playing against entities that will adapt. if you don't run, you may score more runs for a while, but the opposing team will adapt and be able to play perfectly positioned defense as a result and your offense will decline

Monkeyboy wrote:Quinn is an elite basestealer. If he stays healthy, I'd love to have him in CF next season. He's almost always put up numbers. Health has been the issue.

He has a career OPS of .680 in 313 plate appearances. I think he's a perfectly nice player to have on your bench, but even taking his health out of the equation, he's not someone I would write in as an everyday starter for a team that's competing for anything.

Also, on the running against the shift thing, I just find it hard to believe that you guys thought of it and nobody in seven or eight-figure analytics departments has considered researching the idea of "if your opponent is shifting, does it make the running game more effective." The more likely scenario, IMO, is that they have researched it, and the answer would surprise you.

rolex wrote:

wiivile wrote:running game is out of fashion league wide

This is something that I don't understand. Why not run the bases? With the shifts that are being used, there are so many times when these are bags to be easily taken. If it was done often enough, some of the shifting would be curtailed. A single with a runner on first doesn't score. With one on second the odds are increased that he does. Move a runner over to third with a steal, lots of good things can happen that would lead to a run scored. Its easy to scorn one run but when one does it often enough in a game, it matters. Get them on; move them over; drive them in isn't as sexy as the long ball but it puts numbers on the scoreboard all the same.

They change the shift with runners on base. It's why Harper's average is so much higher with runners on. They don't just leave bases open to steal.