Also, remember that Macphail (IIRC) said that this would be about a 5-year rebuild. We're in year 3 of that rebuild. Rebuilding in Baseball is way, way slower than it is in other sports.

And if anyone says "it's actually been a 7-year rebuild", I'll ask this: did "the process" for the Sixers take 7 years?

mcare89 wrote:

Shadow wrote:

mcare89 wrote:I just think a year and a half is a stupidly short amount of time to give a manager before you decide to fire him, particularly when they didn't exactly go into last season with super-high expectations or a payroll befitting a team that was contending, and he has a career winning record. If they came out and won 70 games each year with expectations of far better, sure.

The difference between Kapler's record now and Charlie's record at the same point in his tenure is like six games. If you guys really want to clean house, if you're that sure about it, knock yourself out, but I swear to god if I watch Kapler go on to be Terry Francona 2.0, I'm never going to let any of you forget about it.

If he turns out to be that, sure, I’ll be the first person to, but what are the odds of that? Not just for Klentak but for any manager. The odds are incredibly small for any manager hired to be a HOF manager who wins multiple championships.

Or... you change the front office first(not saying they will, but I want to) and allow them to come in and evaluate and if they decide a change needs to be made, you put your faith in their evaluations.

Less the specifics of being as successful as Francona (obviously he's an outlier success with multiple rings) but just the general idea of firing a young manager too soon while acknowledging that the team you gave him has massive holes that need to be repaired.

I think there's a cognitive dissonance between thinking that they need to fire Kapler while also pointing out that they have one average or better major league starting pitcher on their roster. He very clearly doesn't have the bullets he needs to succeed.

Believe it or not, I actually subscribe more to the "blow it all up" philosophy than the fire Kapler idea. If you really think a change needs to be made, to me, it's an organizational shift, firing the manager who is clearly acting upon the organization's general philosophy would indicate to me that they're scrambling for answers rather than actually having solutions.

If you're going to fire Kapler, you should fire Klentak as well and honestly probably consider Macphail as well, the organizational structure is linked together with no indication of any dissension that would require a change.

But I would give them another offseason before I make that move. The reality is that this is the first year this team was truly built to compete for any sort of real success, and while it's been underwhelming and a bit of a slog to watch, you know a few things now that you weren't sure about coming into this season:

1) Eflin, Pivetta, and Velasquez can't be relied upon as key major league starters.
2) Arrieta is more of a back of the rotation starter now than a legitimate frontline starter.
3) You're going to need a solution in center field at some point.
4) Kingery is probably a major league regular.

I only ever call for GMs/coaches/managers to be fired in any sport if I feel that they are or are in the process of doing more harm than good to my teams. I'm not one of those meatheads who cheers for everyone to be fired after an unsuccessful season. I supported Kapler last year, actually. It was Klentak who I disliked more. I supported Hinkie and Brett Brown, and Doug after 2016 didn't end well.

I honestly and truly feel that this dynamic is going to hurt this team. Sure, they have flaws. The pitching sucks, they blatantly ignored it. And if this team was looking really good offensively, and the Phils were just losing games solely because the pitching sucked, then I wouldn't be in favor of any wholesale changes. But this isn't the case. It's so much more. This team just looks REALLY REALLY bad. Lack of fundamentals, they look totally lifeless offensively and in the field, egregious mistakes, lack of clutch hitting and pitching. I think sometimes you just get a sense when something really doesn't feel right, and that's obviously unique to each individual person evaluating, but that's the sense I get when I look at this team. Something isn't right far deeper than the lack of pitching. I fear for the future of this baseball team, I really do. I wouldn't want them to clean house if I didn't.

If I thought things would be better next season, I'd be willing to wait a year, but I just don't see what would change. Say they add a good quality CF, and they move Kingery to 2B, deal Cesar, and them bring Bohm up to play 3B. Or they put Kingery at 3B, find a CF, and keep Cesar. That's fine and good, but why would I assume next year would be any different for Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto, Segura if nothing changes? Same manager, same coaches, same front office with the same philosophies. They believe what they believe, of course they are going to stick by what they believe leads to success. But if you change no variables, why would you get different results? I'm not saying it's impossible, but I don't think it's something you can assume would happen either.

I just can't go through another season like this, I think it's too big a risk to keep these guys here for one more year. I don't want to waste a year of Realmuto and Segura's time with us. And maybe we'll clean house, bring in a new front office, manager, and coaching staff and nothing will change. And at that point we're no worse off, but hell, I'm willing to take that risk, because this is just awful to watch across the board.

Benny Lava wrote:

Shadow wrote:If you look at an organization like the Yankees or Red Sox, teams that consistently win and make the playoffs, if they spent more money than any team in baseball and had 2 straight seasons with a new manager where the team collapsed(assuming for a second that’s what will happen here with the Phils again this season) then I can’t imagine they’d keep the manager. I use them examples because those are typically two of the franchises people use as a model for success.

If the Yankees collapsed and missed the playoffs two straight seasons under Boone while spending more money than any team in baseball he’d likely be fired. Same with Red Sox and Cora. Hell, the Red Sox fired Farrell a couple years after he won a World Series. Organizations like that don’t #$!&@ around and that’s the type of organization I want the Phillies to become. Model yourself after the best. If this season fizzles out I don’t think 2 seasons is too short to make the call that he’s not the right guy. For the record though, I don’t think things will ever truly change unless they change the front office, because I think they will just keep hiring guys who promote their philosophies to baseball, and hitting, which hasn’t gotten the desired results, but that’s just my opinion.

Those organizations probably wouldn't "clean house" every 2-3 seasons. Firing a manager is one thing, installing a whole new front office and coaching staff is another.

You might be right, but Klentak was hired in 2015, this is his 4th year here. Yeah, not much longer than 3 years, I'm not going to be a stickler. If the farm system was better off I might be more in your camp, but I think it's pretty unforgivable to suck as long as they have and not have the farm system in a better position than it is. Not all Klentak's fault, some goes back to the Amaro days, but a lot of it is his fault. I'd fire Alvarez too. When I say clean house, I want the whole damn thing. Scouts, farm directors, all of it. Bring in a new president and GM and let them rebuild this thing from the ground up. I'm tired of looking at other teams who are already elite loaded with top prospect after top prospect, bring one up after the next, seemingly having an endless supply. When the Phillies who've sucked since 2012 can't approach anything close to that. I mean, what the hell? The Astros built a juggernaut in a few seasons. They sucked since 2009, but really their true rebuilt started in 2011 where they had those 3 terrible seasons and rebuilt that farm system and organization and look where they are now. I'm insanely jealous.

Shadow wrote:If I thought things would be better next season, I'd be willing to wait a year, but I just don't see what would change. Say they add a good quality CF, and they move Kingery to 2B, deal Cesar, and them bring Bohm up to play 3B. Or they put Kingery at 3B, find a CF, and keep Cesar. That's fine and good, but why would I assume next year would be any different for Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto, Segura if nothing changes? Same manager, same coaches, same front office with the same philosophies. They believe what they believe, of course they are going to stick by what they believe leads to success. But if you change no variables, why would you get different results? I'm not saying it's impossible, but I don't think it's something you can assume would happen either.

If you add some respectable starting pitching, next year doesn't really need to be all that different for any of the guys you listed. Harper and Hoskins are still well above-average regulars, and so is Realmuto when you factor in his defensive work. Segura's still tracking around 3 fWAR, which is fine. Could all of them be more productive? Sure. But if you can fill in the gaps around them, their production as-is isn't really that far off where you need them to be to get where you need to go.

I will also say I'm not giving a pass for the coaches and FO because, offensively, there is something wrong with the offense that seems to be affecting every hitter. The Phillies lead the league in in-field flyouts. They're also not hitting home runs in a season that's on pace to break records for home runs.

mcare89 wrote:

Shadow wrote:If I thought things would be better next season, I'd be willing to wait a year, but I just don't see what would change. Say they add a good quality CF, and they move Kingery to 2B, deal Cesar, and them bring Bohm up to play 3B. Or they put Kingery at 3B, find a CF, and keep Cesar. That's fine and good, but why would I assume next year would be any different for Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto, Segura if nothing changes? Same manager, same coaches, same front office with the same philosophies. They believe what they believe, of course they are going to stick by what they believe leads to success. But if you change no variables, why would you get different results? I'm not saying it's impossible, but I don't think it's something you can assume would happen either.

If you add some respectable starting pitching, next year doesn't really need to be all that different for any of the guys you listed. Harper and Hoskins are still well above-average regulars, and so is Realmuto when you factor in his defensive work. Segura's still tracking around 3 fWAR, which is fine. Could all of them be more productive? Sure. But if you can fill in the gaps around them, their production as-is isn't really that far off where you need them to be to get where you need to go.

Why were the 1980 Phillies so much better than 1979? Why were the 1993 Phillies so much better than 1992? Why was the 2008 team world champions? Yeah, you can look at this that or the other tweak that made a difference , but a lot of that's hindsight and the core of each of these teams remained the same. Baseball just works out that way-you try to get the right people in the right job and figure it eventually works the way it was supposed to. I feel very confident in Kapler. Less so in Klentak who I think is unwilling to make a deal unless all the ducks are in a row, but he might loosen up a bit (for which we'll all skewer him). We need more pitching, but I like the lineup, with adjustments as some of the yoiunger players become viable. I'm happy enough to roll with it for one more year.

Came up on my youtubes. Funner times:

mcare89 wrote:

Shadow wrote:If I thought things would be better next season, I'd be willing to wait a year, but I just don't see what would change. Say they add a good quality CF, and they move Kingery to 2B, deal Cesar, and them bring Bohm up to play 3B. Or they put Kingery at 3B, find a CF, and keep Cesar. That's fine and good, but why would I assume next year would be any different for Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto, Segura if nothing changes? Same manager, same coaches, same front office with the same philosophies. They believe what they believe, of course they are going to stick by what they believe leads to success. But if you change no variables, why would you get different results? I'm not saying it's impossible, but I don't think it's something you can assume would happen either.

If you add some respectable starting pitching, next year doesn't really need to be all that different for any of the guys you listed. Harper and Hoskins are still well above-average regulars, and so is Realmuto when you factor in his defensive work. Segura's still tracking around 3 fWAR, which is fine. Could all of them be more productive? Sure. But if you can fill in the gaps around them, their production as-is isn't really that far off where you need them to be to get where you need to go.

But is it good enough to win a World Series? I don’t think so. That’s what I want, there are so many stacked teams in baseball if we want that parade we have to be willing to stack up and the elite teams not only have pitching but they mash. So yeah, it’s not like Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto, Segura have been bad per se, but in a game where prominent people have acknowledged changes to the baseball and HRs and offensive numbers are through the roof, it changes the context IMO. Harper signed here with an amazing career OPS at CBP and comes here and not only hasn’t reached it, but his power numbers are on pace to be among the worst of his career. In a hitter’s ball park. With changes to the baseballs. Something is just wrong. I know his career has been inconsistent but you’d figure in this park and with HRs flying out like crazy every night he’d at least have good HR numbers. He hasn’t at all.

It has a lot to do with what Benny just posted. If we want a World Series I do think we need to get this offense right and for whatever reason, whatever it is, guys come here under this regime and don’t perform. Santana leaves and becomes a star, JP leaves and finally starts hitting with Seattle. Some may be coincidence and circumstance sure, but the examples are starting to pile up now and at the very least can’t be ignored.

I don’t feel the offense will ever reach its potential with this current dynamic in place.

Shadow wrote:

mcare89 wrote:

Shadow wrote:If I thought things would be better next season, I'd be willing to wait a year, but I just don't see what would change. Say they add a good quality CF, and they move Kingery to 2B, deal Cesar, and them bring Bohm up to play 3B. Or they put Kingery at 3B, find a CF, and keep Cesar. That's fine and good, but why would I assume next year would be any different for Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto, Segura if nothing changes? Same manager, same coaches, same front office with the same philosophies. They believe what they believe, of course they are going to stick by what they believe leads to success. But if you change no variables, why would you get different results? I'm not saying it's impossible, but I don't think it's something you can assume would happen either.

If you add some respectable starting pitching, next year doesn't really need to be all that different for any of the guys you listed. Harper and Hoskins are still well above-average regulars, and so is Realmuto when you factor in his defensive work. Segura's still tracking around 3 fWAR, which is fine. Could all of them be more productive? Sure. But if you can fill in the gaps around them, their production as-is isn't really that far off where you need them to be to get where you need to go.

But is it good enough to win a World Series? I don’t think so. That’s what I want, there are so many stacked teams in baseball if we want that parade we have to be willing to stack up and the elite teams not only have pitching but they mash. So yeah, it’s not like Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto, Segura have been bad per se, but in a game where prominent people have acknowledged changes to the baseball and HRs and offensive numbers are through the roof, it changes the context IMO. Harper signed here with an amazing career OPS at CBP and comes here and not only hasn’t reached it, but his power numbers are on pace to be among the worst of his career. In a hitter’s ball park. With changes to the baseballs. Something is just wrong. I know his career has been inconsistent but you’d figure in this park and with HRs flying out like crazy every night he’d at least have good HR numbers. He hasn’t at all.

It has a lot to do with what Benny just posted. If we want a World Series I do think we need to get this offense right and for whatever reason, whatever it is, guys come here under this regime and don’t perform. Santana leaves and becomes a star, JP leaves and finally starts hitting with Seattle. Some may be coincidence and circumstance sure, but the examples are starting to pile up now and at the very least can’t be ignored.

I don’t feel the offense will ever reach its potential with this current dynamic in place.

Santana's having by far the best year of his career, a complete outlier with the rest of his career at age 33, it seems silly to me to hold him up as an example of "look what happens when he gets away from Philly. You asked what's going to change next year, one thing is that some guys just have down years followed by up years. I mean, look at Harper's numbers, his two best years are preceded by years where he ops'd .768 and .814. Growth and decline isn't always linear.

And Crawford's hitting improvement is a bit overstated, he had one hot month and he's hitting .183 since the All-Star break, the book has hardly been written there.

Santana also had a ton of bad luck last year here, if Hoskins wasn’t a total disaster in LF, Santana is probably still here, and if these baseballs were used last year Santana probably hits 30-35 HR last year

mcare89 wrote:I just think a year and a half is a stupidly short amount of time to give a manager before you decide to fire him, particularly when they didn't exactly go into last season with super-high expectations or a payroll befitting a team that was contending, and he has a career winning record. If they came out and won 70 games each year with expectations of far better, sure.

The difference between Kapler's record now and Charlie's record at the same point in his tenure is like six games. If you guys really want to clean house, if you're that sure about it, knock yourself out, but I swear to god if I watch Kapler go on to be Terry Francona 2.0, I'm never going to let any of you forget about it.

Francona went on to become Francona because he landed in Boston just as their farm was producing great players and they had money to burn. Then he was smart enough to go to Cleveland when they were producing a large number of excellent starters and position players. I'm not saying he had no effect, in fact he probably did, but he was also in the right place at the right time and then had his choice of gigs.

Kapler got here just as our supposedly solid system was starting to bear fruit and when we were ready to spend money like drunkin sailors. The young guys have almost universally stopped developing. If he goes on to become Francona II, it will be in spite of showing no signs of doing so.

But I don't think Kapler needs to go just because the team hasn't produced. My thing about the situation, and maybe it's not fair to Gabe, is that these things follow a normal progression. I think the problem is player development, particularly at the ML level, but also in the minors. I doubt that will change as long as Klentak is in charge because usually GMs will bring in the guys they want and then ride them until they are forced to change them or they are themselves removed. GMs usually aren't removed until they've gone through at least 2 managers. For this reason, I think we ned to get the ball rolling and remove Kapler now. If the problem is him, great, problem solved. If things don't improve, then we are one step closer to changing the development people causing the problem.

On the other hand, maybe Klentak will see what we see and see the development people are the problem and make changes there. I still think we need to change the guys doing development at the ML level (Kapler, etc), but Klentak could conceivably stay if he's willing to make the development changes that clearly need to happen.

mcare89 wrote:

Shadow wrote:

mcare89 wrote:I just think a year and a half is a stupidly short amount of time to give a manager before you decide to fire him, particularly when they didn't exactly go into last season with super-high expectations or a payroll befitting a team that was contending, and he has a career winning record. If they came out and won 70 games each year with expectations of far better, sure.

The difference between Kapler's record now and Charlie's record at the same point in his tenure is like six games. If you guys really want to clean house, if you're that sure about it, knock yourself out, but I swear to god if I watch Kapler go on to be Terry Francona 2.0, I'm never going to let any of you forget about it.

If he turns out to be that, sure, I’ll be the first person to, but what are the odds of that? Not just for Klentak but for any manager. The odds are incredibly small for any manager hired to be a HOF manager who wins multiple championships.

Or... you change the front office first(not saying they will, but I want to) and allow them to come in and evaluate and if they decide a change needs to be made, you put your faith in their evaluations.

Less the specifics of being as successful as Francona (obviously he's an outlier success with multiple rings) but just the general idea of firing a young manager too soon while acknowledging that the team you gave him has massive holes that need to be repaired.

I think there's a cognitive dissonance between thinking that they need to fire Kapler while also pointing out that they have one average or better major league starting pitcher on their roster. He very clearly doesn't have the bullets he needs to succeed.

Believe it or not, I actually subscribe more to the "blow it all up" philosophy than the fire Kapler idea. If you really think a change needs to be made, to me, it's an organizational shift, firing the manager who is clearly acting upon the organization's general philosophy would indicate to me that they're scrambling for answers rather than actually having solutions.

If you're going to fire Kapler, you should fire Klentak as well and honestly probably consider Macphail as well, the organizational structure is linked together with no indication of any dissension that would require a change.

But I would give them another offseason before I make that move. The reality is that this is the first year this team was truly built to compete for any sort of real success, and while it's been underwhelming and a bit of a slog to watch, you know a few things now that you weren't sure about coming into this season:

1) Eflin, Pivetta, and Velasquez can't be relied upon as key major league starters.
2) Arrieta is more of a back of the rotation starter now than a legitimate frontline starter.
3) You're going to need a solution in center field at some point.
4) Kingery is probably a major league regular.

which came first, the chicken or the egg?

Did the players not developing lead to Kapler's lack of success or did Kapler do a poor job and the players subsequently not produce. It's probably a bit of both and Kapler isn't alone at the ML level (there are other coaches).

For the record, the egg came first.

Shadow wrote:I supported Hinkie and Brett Brown, and Doug after 2016 didn't end well.

You damn right you did!

Any chance Bruce's new injury was caused by the chain jerk reaction to Haseley being sent down?

MattFoley wrote:Any chance Bruce's new injury was caused by the chain jerk reaction to Haseley being sent down?

How did Haseley rejoin the team so quickly? Had he even traveled back to the East Coast at the time Bruce re-injured himself?

MattFoley wrote:Any chance Bruce's new injury was caused by the chain jerk reaction to Haseley being sent down?

Yes rumor is Bruce took the news hard.

Various thoughts:
- Red Sox suck as badly as we do, and have a payroll 50% higher than ours. Maybe they'll trade us Betts.
- JP Crawford can't hit, and HAS NO POWER (he'd now have a SLG higher than only Cesar among our regulars, JFL or whomever)
- Our CF/leadoff hitter blew out his knee. Our old CF was still here, but beat his GF and is suspended.
- Our entire bullpen is a shambles - our 3 most expensive (Robertson, Hunter, Neshek) combined for 30 innings, and our best young reliever pitched 24. That's about 200 innings fewer than we could have expected, about 2 innings per competitive game - non-blowouts where those guys might pitch. That's a TON of impact.
- Buck Showalter has managed for 20 years, won 3 division titles, and 9 postseason GAMES. He has a career .506 win %, and finished 3rd or worse in his division in 13 times. He averaged 2nd place for the 90's Yankees, and worse than 3rd place for every other stop - Arizona, Texas, Baltimore. Strategy-wise, he is league-average for pitchers used per game, for PH used, for intentional walks issued, he doesn't sacrifice bunt or steal bases. All of those things are very similar to Kapler, who also finished 3rd on average, in 1 plus seasons, with a .504 win %. Kapler challenges a handful more calls than Buck per season, and is slightly more successful.
- I love Harper, more than I thought I would. Love the hustle and energy from a superstar. But his numbers are meh so far, for a star. He's always had stretches, even seasons, like that, and everyone wanted him anyway. He might catch fire for a month, and we'd probably go 20-8. And signing Harper to a LOOONG deal means we hope we get a 3 or 4 2015 or 2017 Harper seasons, and those are the years you're gonna win.

Let's get hot, win the wildcard, and fuck shit up in the playoffs. It's not gonna get easier in the future - despite Shadow's protestations, the Braves are an outstanding team we're gonna have to deal with for a while. At least maybe we'll be healthier.

06hawkalum wrote:

MattFoley wrote:Any chance Bruce's new injury was caused by the chain jerk reaction to Haseley being sent down?

How did Haseley rejoin the team so quickly? Had he even traveled back to the East Coast at the time Bruce re-injured himself?

Broadcast said he was at the airport to catch a red eye when they called him and told him Bruce night he hurt, skip the flight.

Monkeyboy wrote:

mcare89 wrote:

Shadow wrote:

mcare89 wrote:I just think a year and a half is a stupidly short amount of time to give a manager before you decide to fire him, particularly when they didn't exactly go into last season with super-high expectations or a payroll befitting a team that was contending, and he has a career winning record. If they came out and won 70 games each year with expectations of far better, sure.

The difference between Kapler's record now and Charlie's record at the same point in his tenure is like six games. If you guys really want to clean house, if you're that sure about it, knock yourself out, but I swear to god if I watch Kapler go on to be Terry Francona 2.0, I'm never going to let any of you forget about it.

If he turns out to be that, sure, I’ll be the first person to, but what are the odds of that? Not just for Klentak but for any manager. The odds are incredibly small for any manager hired to be a HOF manager who wins multiple championships.

Or... you change the front office first(not saying they will, but I want to) and allow them to come in and evaluate and if they decide a change needs to be made, you put your faith in their evaluations.

Less the specifics of being as successful as Francona (obviously he's an outlier success with multiple rings) but just the general idea of firing a young manager too soon while acknowledging that the team you gave him has massive holes that need to be repaired.

I think there's a cognitive dissonance between thinking that they need to fire Kapler while also pointing out that they have one average or better major league starting pitcher on their roster. He very clearly doesn't have the bullets he needs to succeed.

Believe it or not, I actually subscribe more to the "blow it all up" philosophy than the fire Kapler idea. If you really think a change needs to be made, to me, it's an organizational shift, firing the manager who is clearly acting upon the organization's general philosophy would indicate to me that they're scrambling for answers rather than actually having solutions.

If you're going to fire Kapler, you should fire Klentak as well and honestly probably consider Macphail as well, the organizational structure is linked together with no indication of any dissension that would require a change.

But I would give them another offseason before I make that move. The reality is that this is the first year this team was truly built to compete for any sort of real success, and while it's been underwhelming and a bit of a slog to watch, you know a few things now that you weren't sure about coming into this season:

1) Eflin, Pivetta, and Velasquez can't be relied upon as key major league starters.
2) Arrieta is more of a back of the rotation starter now than a legitimate frontline starter.
3) You're going to need a solution in center field at some point.
4) Kingery is probably a major league regular.

which came first, the chicken or the egg?

Did the players not developing lead to Kapler's lack of success or did Kapler do a poor job and the players subsequently not produce. It's probably a bit of both and Kapler isn't alone at the ML level (there are other coaches).

My issue isn’t so much with the results it’s with the hitting philosophy. It’s on kapler to get better assistant coaches. If he does that next year and they don’t improve then I get rid of kapler

By the way...I saw an interesting tidbit. The Phillies offense has actually been better since mccutchen went down on many categories. The common denominator throughout the whole season has been their inability to hit with runners in scoring position. I don’t know if that kind of thing changes from season to season, if it’s just bad luck or if it has to do with the coaching