Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

by **CalvinBall** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 11:28:03

Could really use those 4 home runs jp Crawford has hit

by **JFLNYC** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 11:44:08

The only current Phils regulars with a SLG higher than Crawford are Rhys, Bryce and, of course, team leader Scott Kingery.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m still a big fan of the trade. But painting Crawford as having no power is an exaggeration.

by **Brantt** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 11:49:17

CalvinBall wrote:Could really use those 4 home runs jp Crawford has hit

Santana’s 21 sure would.

by **Benny Lava** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 11:52:05

Brantt wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:Could really use those 4 home runs jp Crawford has hit

Santana’s 21 sure would.

But then we would have to watch Rhys play in the outfield.

by **Benny Lava** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 11:53:58

JP had a good May, an awesome June, and, so far, a shitty July. I still think it's a little weird that the Phils gave up on him so fast, but I'm not going to second guess the Segura trade.

by **Squire** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:01:07

Has there been a Klentak trade where your view of the trade didn’t peak on the day that it was made?

by **ReadingPhilly** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:28:10

Brantt wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:Could really use those 4 home runs jp Crawford has hit

Santana’s 21 sure would.

and hoskins' -30 drs in lf would have given them back.

by **Bucky** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:28:45

jt was awesome until he got hit in the nads

by **Benny Lava** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:46:33

From some dude on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/Matt_Winkelman/stat ... 7590619136

"Something very interesting is that by the Hard hit metric on FG, here are some year to year changes
Hoskins: 34.5%->45.7%
Harper: 42.3%->44.6%
Franco: 27.5%->33.8%
Kingery: 26.6%->47.4% !!!!
Realmuto: 38.5%->44.7%
Segura: 25.8%->30.5%
Hernandez: 24.0%->31.9%"

And in another tweet, this guys says that every Phillies hitter this season has seen their average exit velocity go up by at least 1 mph. Phillies are hitting the ball hard and getting nothing to show for it. Only thing I can think is that they're hitting balls hard but they're hitting ground balls.

by **Squire** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 13:08:23

That’s pretty amazing.

by **Bucky** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 13:09:18

Benny Lava wrote:From some dude on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/Matt_Winkelman/stat ... 7590619136

"Something very interesting is that by the Hard hit metric on FG, here are some year to year changes
Hoskins: 34.5%->45.7%
Harper: 42.3%->44.6%
Franco: 27.5%->33.8%
Kingery: 26.6%->47.4% !!!!
Realmuto: 38.5%->44.7%
Segura: 25.8%->30.5%
Hernandez: 24.0%->31.9%"

And in another tweet, this guys says that every Phillies hitter this season has seen their average exit velocity go up by at least 1 mph. Phillies are hitting the ball hard and getting nothing to show for it. Only thing I can think is that they're hitting balls hard but they're hitting ground balls.

statcast has launch angles too!

by **bleh** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 13:17:59

Hard hit % = percent of balls hit in play. And exit velocity only measures balls in play too. They hit the ball harder when they make contact, but they strike out more. That's the case for Harper and Realmuto at least.

by **Bucky** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 13:35:03

how about those BABIPs

by **BigEd76** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 14:19:54

Acquired Jose Pirela from the Padres for cash then optioned him to LV

Hunter to the 60-day IL

by **nycphils** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 14:38:13

More poor talent evaluation - this was eminently obvious by June, even if you want to give a pass for the offseason:

Keuchel, since debuting for the Braves on June 21, has authored four starts of at least six innings pitched with two or fewer runs allowed. The Phillies, since then, have one such start from their pitchers not named Aaron Nola. Smyly did it last weekend against Pittsburgh after the Phillies rescued him from Milwaukee’s minor-league system.
That’s it.
The Keuchel whiff, with hindsight, can be less about the actual pitcher and more about the Phillies’ decision-making process. They misjudged the capabilities of their starting pitchers last winter and again in June. Nick Pivetta is now a reliever, perhaps in the mold of Josh Hader, and it’s a role that could suit him. Vince Velasquez, at some point in 2019 or 2020, could join Pivetta in the bullpen. Zach Eflin has again hit a physical barrier in the summer. Smyly is a stopgap. It’s not as if those outcomes were unpredictable. The Phillies just envisioned otherwise.

by **PhillieMooDo** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 15:38:50

People who know more about the minors than me: How's that catching prospect project?

I ask, because I wonder if the Phils would consider dealing JT, finding a stopgap, and replenishing some farm talent.

Or, flipping some of that talent for one of the available aces.

It's been discussed before (on BSG, probably not in the real world), I think.

by **mcare89** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 15:48:20

A fun read for our fatalist chapter:

viewtopic.php_f=43&t=6056

The MattS post on page 1 should have its own exhibit at CBP.

by **Benny Lava** » Sat Jul 27, 2019 16:05:08

Well, he was right about Santana, but the rest of the Mets rotation was mediocre to bad.

And I forgot that the 2008 Mets line-up was really good; 4 players with OPS+ above 120, and would've had five but Reyes' OPS+ was 119.

They still suck, though.

edit: no idea what happened, but after i read that post from 2008, my front page of BSG is all threads from 2008

edit 2, electric boogaloo: figured it out. archived posts from 2008.

by 1 » Sat Jul 27, 2019 16:08:03

nycphils wrote:More poor talent evaluation - this was eminently obvious by June, even if you want to give a pass for the offseason:

Keuchel, since debuting for the Braves on June 21, has authored four starts of at least six innings pitched with two or fewer runs allowed. The Phillies, since then, have one such start from their pitchers not named Aaron Nola. Smyly did it last weekend against Pittsburgh after the Phillies rescued him from Milwaukee’s minor-league system.
That’s it.
The Keuchel whiff, with hindsight, can be less about the actual pitcher and more about the Phillies’ decision-making process. They misjudged the capabilities of their starting pitchers last winter and again in June. Nick Pivetta is now a reliever, perhaps in the mold of Josh Hader, and it’s a role that could suit him. Vince Velasquez, at some point in 2019 or 2020, could join Pivetta in the bullpen. Zach Eflin has again hit a physical barrier in the summer. Smyly is a stopgap. It’s not as if those outcomes were unpredictable. The Phillies just envisioned otherwise.

28 other teams didn’t sign him. Enough.

by 1 » Sat Jul 27, 2019 17:51:45

Phillies Twitter’s revisionist history of how amazing the 08 team was is just about as frustrating as watching the 08 team was.

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